Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season -- and into the offseason.
Surprises? No Such Thing
In the movie Forrest Gump, the eponymous character, sitting at a bus stop sharing chocolates from a box with a stranger, says, "Life was like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're gonna get."
But you know that you never know.
I often remind you we're playing a game based on a sport built on variance and volatility.
Unexpected outcomes aren't accidental. They're by design.
So when unanticipated developments occur every week -- and they inevitably do -- we say they're surprising because that's the word that works best.
But these surprises are really opportunities.
Leveraging Uncertainty
Our job is to take the unexpected outcomes that catch us off guard every week and view them as opportunities, chances to see things differently, change our minds, make contrarian decisions . . . to improve our teams.
Let's take a look at some surprising developments from Week 7 and try to figure out what they mean going forward. We'll get the ball rolling in New York . . .
Skattebo's Redemption
As outlined in The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly section of last week's Fantasy Notebook, Cam Skattebo did not start against the New Orleans Saints in Week 6, losing the spot to Najee Harris.
As bad as that was, the outcome was even worse.
Skattebo played just six snaps and failed to log a carry while six other Giants handled at least one rushing attempt. He viewed it as punishment for several costly fumbles, including late in a tie against the Washington Commanders.
Although Harris got the start against the Saints, he had just four carries for two yards. That output ranked last of the six players who were credited with a carry for the Giants.
Despite having four running backs dressed for the game (Harris, Skattebo, Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary), the Giants got just 34 total rushing yards.
After the game, a 34-27 home defeat that dropped the Giants to 3-2-1, Harris expressed frustration with the team's running-back-by-committee approach.
Harris was released the next day . . .
Fast Forward to Week 7
In a dramatic and unexpected turnaround -- many fantasy managers benched him based on the uncertainty surrounding his role -- Skattebo led the Giants with 17 carries, 124 rushing yards and a touchdown against Houston.
He played 55 percent of the snaps and was the lead back after Tracy exited due to injury, finishing the game with a 50 percent rush share.
Skattebo also ran 9 routes to 12 for the other backs.
Tracy was placed on injured reserve on Monday; he'll miss at least the next four games while he recovers from a hamstring injury.
That means Skattebo and Singletary are the team's primary backs, with only Gregory Desrosiers Jr. in reserve.
It All Bodes Well
The table is set perfectly for Skattebo to become the bell cow running back for the Giants, which isn't far off what he's been -- at least for the most part.
Outside of his "benching" in Week 6, Skattebo has at least 15 touches in each game this season.
That makes him one of the safer volume plays at a banged-up RB position.
He is back in the RB2/flex range moving forward, including in the Giants' next game against the Eagles after the bye.
Pollard's Sudden Surge
Tony Pollard might have been the player of the week, turning 25 carries into 129 yards and three touchdowns against the Browns.
The 129 rushing yards were a season-high and his third-most in a game as a Titan. Pollard averaged more than five yards per carry, and he also caught all three of his targets for 26 yards.
He finished with an 83 percent rush share and 120 rushing yards after contact. According to Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason, Pollard's previous yards after contact high this season was 65.
It led to an enormous fantasy outcome despite the Titans losing 27-24.
Pollard finished as the RB1 overall with 36.5 fantasy points.
It was arguably his best performance in Tennessee, from both an NFL and fantasy perspective, in a game where Tyjae Spears and Nicholas Singleton were inactive.
Will it Persist?
According to SBNation's Justin Melo, it's worth remembering Pollard and the Titans' run game got things going similarly down the stretch of last season. If offensive coordinator Brian Daboll's unit continues running the football effectively, Melo believes this offense could start scoring 20-plus points consistently.
They've failed to reach that scoring benchmark in four of seven games this season. Not surprisingly, Pollard had scored two touchdowns in his previous 10 games combined.
Still, there's one factor we can't overlook.
Pollard has averaged 19 touches per game since Week 2, which has him in play weekly as an RB2 or flex option -- with RB1 finishes well within his range of outcomes.
He is a volume play against a vastly improved Bengals rush defense this week.
But ESPN's Dan Graziano argues Pollard is having a better season than we think. Scouts who watch the Titans tell Graziano that Pollard looks more explosive than he has in a few years.
"He's a lead back in an improving offense who you should start," Graziano summed up.
A Rookie Rising in Cleveland
Wide receiver KC Concepcion Jr. erupted in Week 7, pulling in eight catches for 129 receiving yards against the Titans.
Concepcion joined Odell Beckham Jr. as one of two rookies since 2000 with eight-plus receptions and 125-plus receiving yards in the first half of a game.
The 129 yards were the eighth-most by a rookie receiver in Browns history. Also, he was the first rookie receiver with a 100-yard game since Corey Coleman in 2016. He also made huge plays on four of the Browns' five scoring drives.
That's a significant breakout, even without a touchdown.
It's important because Concepcion is showing the target-earning ability and production that could support consistent fantasy value rather than relying on occasional explosive plays.
Concepcion had a 29 percent target share against the Titans. He's now hit a 20 percent target share in every completed game this season. In fact, outside of Week 5, when Concepcion was sidelined by a concussion, the first-round pick averaged nearly seven targets per game.
Despite his heavy involvement in the offense, Concepcion had yet to convert those opportunities into a breakout performance.
That changed on Sunday.
Can We Trust It?
The workload is absolutely reliable -- even though we haven't seen him hit his ceiling on the regular.
In fact, as FantasyPros' Chad Workman pointed out, after seven weeks, Concepcion remains a stranger to the end zone, and with zero targets inside the 10-yard line, he hasn't been a factor in the red zone.
With Cleveland's offense averaging the fifth-fewest points in the NFL at 19 per game, Workman contends we likely won't see much improvement this season.
Still, Concepcion will remain PPR-friendly and has a bright future as the offense grows.