This feature will be in your email each week. Don't miss it or the other email features we'll be sending.
DON'T MISS OUT: Sign up for our free, daily newsletter here.
In Week 6, we liked Dallas at Green Bay (36 points), Buffalo at Las Vegas (63), Arizona at the Los Angeles Rams (34), Washington at San Francisco (40), and Chicago at Atlanta (54). Those games averaged 45.4 points. That drops our running average to 52.6 combined points across 25 selected games, down from 54.4 entering Week 6. The Bills-Raiders and Chicago-Atlanta delivered, but the other three held us back.
But Week 7 is here and there's no looking back. We've assembled five more matchups that give us both automatic starts capable of hitting their ceilings and players whose lineup value gets pushed upward based on the opponent. Here are the games that stand out this week.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
This is the fantasy environment we're after. It starts with the week's highest total (53.5 points), a manageable spread (Detroit favored by three), and outstanding positional leverage.
Jordan Love has arguably the best quarterback matchup on the slate. Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and tight ends, as well as the third-most to opposing wide receivers. That puts Tucker Kraft in an especially attractive position, while Christian Watson and Matthew Golden continue to serve as high-end receiving options. Start all the key components here with confidence that their ceilings are attainable.
The Detroit matchup is less favorable for Green Bay's running backs, and with Josh Jacobs expected to rejoin the fray (at a yet-to-be-determined level), this group will still be best used as flex-level plays. That could change if Jacobs immediately earns a featured role, but a ramp-up is expected with a Thursday game coming in Week 8.
For Detroit, Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta remain central. The Packers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs, creating additional appeal for Gibbs. Jameson Williams could outperform expectations if this game becomes the hoped-for shootout.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
The second-highest total, 51.5 points, and a competitive spread (Ravens favored by 2.5) make this an attractive game, but there are caveats. Baltimore managed just 10 points against Cleveland in Week 6. This has shootout potential, but it's more conditional than Green Bay-Detroit.
Concerns ease if Lamar Jackson returns from his two-week ankle-related absence. He's day-to-day, and the Ravens hope he'll practice Wednesday. He is the central variable: if available and effective, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, and the secondary receivers all become more appealing.
Derrick Henry is RB5 and Zay Flowers is WR11 in the initial Footballguys Week 7 projections. With Rashod Bateman questionable (shoulder), Ja'Kobi Lane is of interest if Jackson plays and Bateman is out.
Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase are the Bengals' primary attractions, with Tee Higgins and Chase Brown also warranting attention. Chase is WR3 in early projections. Brown is RB11, but Samaje Perine joined the flex conversation with a more robust Week 5 role.
Henry and Flowers join Burrow, Chase, Brown, and Higgins as lineup locks. Perine, Lane, Andrews, and Cincinnati TE Mike Gesicki are viable fill-in/streaming options.
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
With a 50.5 total and 3-point spread, this is another strong choice because the positional matchup data supports an aggressive approach to San Francisco's passing game.
But again, injuries are likely to be a factor.
Mike Evans suffered an Achilles injury in Monday night's win over the Commanders and is unlikely to be available this week. Still, Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle are all lineup locks capable of successfully navigating the toughest matchups.
Can we play a wide receiver here? Atlanta has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, so Jordan Watkins, Brandin Cooks, and Jacob Cowing could be emergency options with Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr. out. Christian Kirk is worth a proactive investment. He was close to returning against the Commanders. He would move into what-the-heck flex territory if available.
For Atlanta, even facing a tough defensive matchup, Bijan Robinson and Drake London are lineup locks capable of delivering high-end fantasy totals. Michael Penix Jr. and Kyle Pitts Sr. are matchup-dependent options.
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
This week's Thursday-night matchup is less obvious than the first three, but a high total (50.5 points) and close spread (the Bears are favored by 3) make it a legitimate candidate.
For New England, running backs Rhamondre Stevenson (projected for RB2 production) and TreVeyon Henderson (projected as a flex-level play) are in play. But the passing attack is of greater interest. Drake Maye, A.J. Brown, and DeMario Douglas -- with Romeo Doubs on IR with a shoulder injury -- are all starting-caliber plays in this game. Hunter Henry is a streaming option at tight end.
In his first game back from a right high ankle sprain, Brown had a career-high three drops, but he played 52 of a possible 67 snaps. Better days are coming -- starting Thursday. With Brown having a week to shake off the rust, Maye's appeal increases if Chicago's offense forces the Patriots to keep throwing. He opened the week with a QB6 projection.
To that end, Caleb Williams and D'Andre Swift are lineup locks. Even with his workload dipping late in games, Swift, coming off an RB6 finish in Week 6, currently sits at RB9 overall. Beyond that, Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland are all projected to have starter-level production in this one, with Burden and Loveland bringing more upside than Odunze, who has yet to score a touchdown this season.
With Kyle Monangai week-to-week due to a toe injury, Roschon Johnson is a viable flex play working behind Swift.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
This is the unconventional selection, with its 44.5 total well below the others. But the positional matchups are excellent.
Both defenses offer exploitable weaknesses against wide receivers.
Philadelphia has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. That makes CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens especially attractive, with Dak Prescott also carrying upside. Javonte Williams and Jake Ferguson round out the core while Ryan Flournoy offers upside as a fill-in option.
Injuries and attrition make for interesting decisions when it comes to rolling out Eagles skill players. Still, Dallas has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and seventh-most to wide receivers.
Even with Tanner McKee taking over at quarterback with Jalen Hurts' season over, the matchup gives the Eagles' passing game an attractive setup, especially DeVonta Smith, who is WR10 in the early Footballguys projections. Dallas Goedert is also projected to finish in TE1 territory. Dontayvion Wicks, Makai Lemon, and Darius Cooper are viable, if undesirable, bye-week replacements.
Saquon Barkley's health and Philadelphia's offensive-line situation are issues for the rushing attack. But Dameon Pierce finished his start in this offense as RB12, making him a viable bye-week replacement with upside.
Follow @footballdiehard Follow @Footballguys