In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some big names -- yes, even ones that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
First, let me stress: if any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
I use this spot to review my previous week's results. It can be a painful experience, even on good weeks. I went 1-8 in Week 4. It was horrible. I was better -- 2-7 -- in Week 5, but still not good. Week 6? We're back in the groove.
Let's see what happened.
- I was in on Raiders QB Kirk Cousins, who was projected to finish as QB13 with 17.4 points. With one of the highest over/unders of the week and a generous Buffalo defense, I expected lots of scoring. It came late in the game, but Cousins finished the week as QB9 with 18.5 points. A welcome hit. ✅
- I was out on Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, who might be my most rostered player, going up against a Houston defense that's historically had his number. In this one, they did not, and Lawrence, who was projected to finish as QB10 with 17.8 points, was the QB1 overall with 27.3 points. I predicted he would fail to hit that QB10 spot. I couldn't have been more wrong. A big fat miss. ❌
- I was in on Titans RB Tony Pollard, who was projected to finish as RB21 with 11.1 points. I thought his weekly volume, combined with a favorable matchup, would allow him to finish inside the top 20. I failed to take into account how dangerous rolling with players in one of the NFL's worst offenses can be. His RB31 finish (with 7.6 points) reminded me. It was also a miss. ❌
- I was out on Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving, who was projected to finish as RB14 with 14.9 points. I felt a tough Steelers defense that shut down Indy's Jonathan Taylor the week before would keep Irving from hitting that RB14 spot. He didn't get close. Irving finished as RB35 with 6.9 points. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Bears WR Rome Odunze, who was projected to finish as WR32 with 11 points. With Caleb Williams back under center in a favorable matchup against the Falcons, I thought he'd outperform that WR32 number -- and perhaps even get some touchdown luck. Instead, our projections team nailed it. Odunze finished as WR32 with 11.2 points. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Cardinals WR Michael Wilson, who was projected for a WR18 finish with 14.1 points against the Rams. I thought this matchup was tougher than that. I predicted Wilson would fall outside the top 20. He fell far outside it, finishing as WR51 with 7.2 points. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Rams TE Tyler Higbee, who was projected to finish as TE14 with 9.1 points against the Cardinals. After two weeks of top-10 level output, I felt Higbee would continue to deliver TE1 numbers in this one. He finished as TE26 with 6.2 points instead. Another miss. ❌
- I was out on Saints TE Juwan Johnson, who was projected to finish as TE8 with 11.2 points against the Giants at MetLife Stadium. I felt this was a reasonable projection, but that it might be hard to hit. It was more than that. Johnson was shut out in this one. Zero catches for zero yards and zero fantasy points. He finished as TE88 (am I the only one who didn't realize that many tight ends play every week?). A hit. ✅
- As for my Outlier of the Week, Eagles QB Tanner McKee? He was projected to finish as QB26 with 13.5 points. I felt that projection left room for upside -- and a QB24 or better finish in a less-than-daunting matchup with the Panthers. With Jalen Hurts out, McKee made his first start and finished as QB18 with 12.6 points. Since I only predicted the finish, this is a solid hit. ✅
That's more like it. A much-needed 5-4 finish. Of course it could have been better, and I have nobody to blame but myself for fearing Houston's defense more than I trusted my faith in Lawrence, for not taking into account just how bad the Titans are, for believing Odunze would score his first touchdown of the season, and for chasing Higbee's success the previous two games.
Here's where we stand after Week 6:
Week 6: 5-4
Season: 22-32
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to finish at .500 or better on my predictions. While my two miserable showings leading up to Week 6 put me in a hole, I'm happy to start digging my way out. I now sit at .407 on the season. I still have some ground to make up, but I stopped the bleeding and live to fight another day.
And with that, let's dive into Week 7.
Week 7 Picks at a Glance
In: Kyler Murray, Ollie Gordon II, DK Metcalf, Tucker Kraft
Out: Tyler Shough, Jonathan Taylor, Jameson Williams, Travis Kelce
Outlier to Watch: Christian Kirk
Quarterback
In: Kyler Murray, Minnesota vs. Indianapolis
As FantasyPros suggested, Murray has been a disappointment so far, averaging just 9.9 fantasy points per game. But coming off the bye and getting the Colts this week sets Murray up for success.
As NFL.com's Matt Okada noted, Murray had increased his fantasy output in each successive game entering the bye -- with a season-high 51 rushing yards and 18.3 fantasy points against the Saints in Week 5.
He had his best game of the season with Justin Jefferson doing all the heavy lifting on the receiving end in New Orleans. This week, with Jordan Addison (hamstring) and T.J. Hockenson (concussion) on track to play, Murray will benefit from an upgraded receiving corps.
Better still, the 2-4 Colts are fresh off a loss to the previously winless Titans and will be without their top defender in Sauce Gardner.
The Colts' defense isn't intimidating, allowing just over 240 passing yards and 27.3 points per game, as well as the eighth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks.
From a fantasy perspective, Indy has allowed 22-plus fantasy points to three of the four legitimate fantasy starters it has faced (which excludes Washington's backups and Cam Ward).
Lamar Jackson in Week 1 and Marcus Mariota in Week 4 each ran for at least 35 yards.
Bottom line: Murray's Footballguys projection calls for a QB11 finish with 17.7 points. I expect Murray to finish in the top 10 this week.
Out: Tyler Shough, New Orleans vs. Pittsburgh (in Paris)
Shough has been better than serviceable this year. He sits at QB3 overall, scoring an average of 19.7 points per game.
But Weeks 4 and 5 weren't great. He was QB32 overall over those two games.
He bounced back with a 27-point, QB2 overall outing against the Giants in Week 6, but as CBSSports.com's Jamey Eisenberg suggested, it wasn't pretty. He was 16-of-30 passing for 144 yards, but he threw three touchdowns and added 32 rushing yards and a score.
Shough is likely to find the going tougher against the Steelers in Paris.
Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and the Steelers have allowed just one quarterback (Joe Burrow) to beat them for more than 12.9 fantasy points. SI.com's Michael Fabiano points out they have posted the fifth-lowest EPA per game to the position after the first six weeks of action.
Bottom line: Shough's Footballguys projection calls for a QB12 finish with 17.4 fantasy points. I say he falls outside QB1 territory.