In Week 9, the playoff picture has crystallized. Most teams have five games remaining. Time to set the scene for the 2025 College Football Playoff:
The Playoff Picture
Playoff Guidelines
- 12 teams make the playoffs, and the top four seeds earn a round 1 bye; the next four host the first round
- There are five automatic qualifiers: the highest-ranked conference champions from the ten conferences.
- That leaves seven at large teams. There are no limits on how many teams can make it from one conference.
- Previously, the top four seeds had to win a conference championship. That has been eliminated.
Current Field (Based on AP Top 25)
- Ohio St - Big Ten Champ
- Indiana
- Texas A&M - SEC Champ
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Oregon
- Georgia Tech - ACC Champ
- Ole Miss
- Miami
- Vanderbilt
- BYU - Big 12 Champ
- South Florida - AAC Champ
Thoughts On The Field
The G5 gets a spot. It will not get two. The P4 conferences of the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, and Big 12, plus Notre Dame, are competing for 11 spots.
There are 38 teams in those conferences with two losses or fewer. The math starts to get difficult to envision a three-loss team making the playoffs.
Notre Dame is the easiest to project. They should be significant favorites in their remaining games. Their two losses are Texas A&M and Miami, two potential playoff teams. Win out, and they are going to make it. Spots left: 10.
Big Ten: We can just about ink Ohio St., Indiana, and Oregon into the field. Northwestern, USC, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, Nebraska, and Washington are all 5-2. None has a quality win. Northwestern, Illinois, and Nebraska are the only teams that do not have a game left against Ohio St, Indiana, or Oregon. There is a chance one could be sitting at 10-2. Even if they do, given the lack of quality wins, a 10-2 SEC team is going to make it in. We can take three here. Spots left: 7.
Big 12: It is clear the conference is viewed behind the Big Ten and the SEC. BYU is undefeated and ranks 11th, behind multiple one-loss schools and Oregon. BYU still plays Iowa St, Texas Tech, and Cincinnati. The best path for grabbing a second bid would likely involve 12-0 BYU losing the conference championship game, with the winner of this week’s Houston vs. Arizona St. game the likely opponent in that scenario. Spots left: 6.
ACC: Miami’s loss to Louisville was a blow to the conference on the whole. Georgia Tech is the only undefeated team left. If they earn an at-large spot, it would happen after beating rival Georgia. Both Georgia Tech and Virginia are undefeated in the conference and avoid Miami. The schedules for both teams are very favorable; it would be an upset if either team lost. That could be a blessing for the conference if the 11-1 Hurricanes avoid the extra game. Given the current landscape, the conference’s best shot at an at-large would be 11-1 Miami or 12-1 Georgia Tech with a win over Georgia. Miami could potentially survive a second loss, assuming it stands head-to-head with Notre Dame at the end, given its success over the Irish. Notre Dame has acted like an ACC team in the past and may be considered in the same pool as an ACC at large. For now, given the specific paths required, it is likely a one-bid conference if the SEC has a similar resume. Spots left: 5.
SEC: Holding five spots for the SEC is the absolute best-case scenario. They have ten teams with legitimate hopes. Via process of elimination, LSU and Tennessee need to win out. In doing so, LSU would have beaten Texas A&M, Alabama, and Oklahoma, easily earning a spot. The odds that they do that are unlikely. Gone. Tennessee’s path is more favorable, but they would need to beat Oklahoma and Vanderbilt along the way. It is very possible, but unlikely. Gone.
We have discussed two teams, and Oklahoma has come up twice. It’s a theme. The Sooners’ schedule to close is brutal; all five games are against teams in the group of ten. They can afford a loss. They can’t afford two. The likelihood they run the group at 4-1 is small.
Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M are likely the best chances to make it. Georgia and Ole Miss have just one game against the “Group of Ten”, even with one loss already, a 4-1 run likely sees them in the field. Undefeated A&M sees just two of the ten — LSU and Texas — and has a valuable out-of-conference win over Notre Dame. They likely have a two-game margin of error.
Alabama sits at 6-1, with a win over Georgia, and two games (LSU and Oklahoma) against the Ten. Both are at home. They will be favored to go 5-0. One loss is still likely to put them into the SEC title game.
That leaves Texas, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. Missouri and Vanderbilt have one loss. They play on Saturday. They both have three games against the Ten. Texas is 5-2 and also has three against the Ten, two of those are Georgia and Texas A&M. They likely need to beat at least one of Georgia or Texas A&M to have a credible case.
The SEC has a case for the most teams in the field, given the conference's depth. Given how many teams are lined up and the remaining schedule, the math gets fuzzy fast. The worst-case scenario for the conference is Miami and Notre Dame winning out, with the Hurricanes being held out of the ACC title game. The fascinating scenario is 12-0 BYU losing the Big 12 title game, or something weird happening in the Big Ten that allows a non-Ohio State / Indiana / Oregon team to sneak out with the title.
Once you stack it up, it is clear why everyone around the SEC orbit has been politicking and arguing over the depth of the conference and the idea of quality losses. There may be five spots for the conference, but there may not be five teams left to grab them.