The Targets Report: Week 15

Week 14 was brutal for quarterback injuries. Daniel Jones' comeback season is over, Justin Herbert is treading water with a broken left hand, and Jayden Daniels reaggravated his left elbow injury. Attrition is hitting hard at the worst part of the year, as the fantasy playoffs kick off. We break down the entire league's passing attacks.

The Target Report

I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below categorizes these offenses.

Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share

• Brown has recovered from his disappointing start, working his way up to WR13 in 0.5 PPR on the season. He is the WR1 overall through the last three weeks, averaging 21.4 per game compared to Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 20.3. Goedert posted his best game since Week 8. He has set a career high with seven touchdowns and needs 11 receptions to tie his previous high of 59. Smith has taken the fall as his teammates have risen, down to WR35 since Week 8. Philadelphia has a highly favorable playoff schedule against the Raiders, Commanders, and Bills.

• Mike Evans was cleared to return for Week 15's matchup against the Falcons. Atlanta was a high-end pass defense over the first half of the year, but has struggled badly of late.  Egbuka suffered a hamstring injury in Week 6. He surprisingly did not miss any time. In six games before the injury, he had 27 catches on 42 targets, a 64% catch rate. Following the injury, he has 27 catches in seven games on 68 targets, a 40% catch rate. The game was played in the rain, which added to the difficulty of a pass game that had floundered. Baker Mayfield has averaged 190 yards per game since Egbuka's injury after starting the year at 256 ypg. Jalen McMillan is also slated to return, adding depth for the receiving unit.

• Week 14 was a disaster for Washington as Zach Ertz suffered a torn ACL and Jayden Daniels aggravated his non-throwing elbow injury. Ertz faces a difficult recovery at this point in his career, while Daniels has been ruled out for Week 15 and may be shut down. Marcus Mariota has averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game in starts, right in line with Daniels. He faces a Giants defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Mariota is good enough to keep both McLaurin and Samuel in fantasy consideration. Ben Sinnott is the hot name to replace Ertz and would be the most fun fantasy option. There is skepticism around the fanbase that the Commanders actually hit on that pick, and John Bates is the best blocking tight end in the NFL. A healthy McLaurin and Samuel should dominate targets.

Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% Target Share

• Wilson continued his dominant play with Marvin Harrison Jr. out of the lineup. Harrison has missed three of the last four games; in those contests, Wilson has averaged 12 receptions and 148 yards, a 17-game pace of 204 catches and 2,516 yards. Wilson is the first player in Cardinals history with 39 receptions and 481 yards in a four-game span. He's the 26th player in NFL history to hit those marks. Puka Nacua was the last, in September of this year. The Cardinals announced both Kyler Murray and Trey Benson were done for the season. McBride needs 23 receptions to tie Zach Ertz's record of 116 for the most by a tight end. DeAndre Hopkins has the Cardinals' record of 115. McBride had 111 in 2024. He has 937 receiving yards and would need a monster finish to get to Travis Kelce's record of 1,416.  The Cardinals face the top-ranked Texans defense. 

• Higgins had his second-best game of the season, despite being evaluated for concussions twice during the game and returning. He was placed in the league's concussion protocol after experiencing symptoms on Monday morning, though he was able to get a limited practice session on Wednesday. Chase has not scored since the Week 7 Thursday Night shootout against Pittsburgh. One more scoreless game would tie a six-game streak at the end of 2023 that extended to the beginning of 2024, the longest in his career. Chase had 16 catches in that Steelers game, but he has just 21 over the last five weeks. He is WR30 since that 16 catch game. Gesicki had his best game of the season and is averaging 5.3 targets per game over the last three weeks since returning from injury. He could mirror his strong close to 2024 when he was the TE11 over the back half of the season. The Bengals have a rematch of their Week 13 contest against Baltimore, a game they won going away. 

• St. Brown needs 24 yards to extend a 1,000-yard streak to four years. He is 672 yards from passing Johnnie Morton for the third-most yards in Lions history. He is the fantasy WR4 on the season. Williams needs 198 receiving yards for consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. His next touchdown would tie his career high of seven. If both St. Brown and Williams hit 1,000 yards, it would be the ninth time the Lions have two 1,000-yard receivers. Williams is the fantasy WR16. The Lions play the Rams in a shootout that Vegas has at 55.5 points, the highest of the season. 

• The Saints leaned on their run game in the rain to upset the Buccaneers. Olave had his second-lowest yardage total of the season. He needs 189 yards for his third 1,000-yard season in four years. He can set a new career high of 88 catches with 12 more, and his next touchdown will be his sixth, another career high. Vele has 20 targets over his last three weeks, as his volume mirrors the departed Rashid Shaheed. Johnson's 58 receptions and 614 yards are new career highs. He has the sixth most catches by a Saints tight end, trailing Ben Watson's 74 next. Jimmy Graham has the top four seasons, between 99 and 85 receptions. His 614 yards are the 13th most by a Saints tight end. The Saints face a Panthers team they upset back in Week 10, when Tyler Shough's 282 yards were his season high. 

• Indianapolis had the wildest week in the NFL. After losing Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles, the team reached an agreement to bring Philip Rivers out of retirement. The announcement was made on Rivers' 44th birthday. He has not played since the 2020 Covid season and was a Hall of Fame semifinalist. His clock will now reset. He needs 648 passing yards to pass Ben Roethlisberger for sixth on the career yardage list. Aaron Rodgers passed both Rivers and Roethlisberger this season. Rivers was fifth on the yardage list when he retired. Rivers is sixth on the career touchdown list, though Matthew Stafford was soon to pass him. Pierce needs 231 receiving yards for his first 1,000-yard season. Warren and Pittman are both at 699 yards, giving the team an outside chance of having three 1,000-yard receivers. Pittman played with Rivers in his rookie season, as did Jonathan Taylor. Warren needs eight catches to tie Josh Downs' rookie team record. The Colts face a difficult run defense in Seattle, putting Rivers to the test immediately with little room to spare in the playoff chase. 

• Meyers immediately established himself in Jacksonville. He had six targets each game in Weeks 11-13 before climbing to 10 in Week 14. It was the first double-digit target game for a Jaguars receiver since Week 7. Thomas returned from injury in Week 13, while Patrick remained in the rotation, replacing Parker Washington, who was forced to miss. Despite rainy conditions, the Jaguars' passing attack played well as they took control of the division against the Colts. Trevor Lawrence had multiple touchdown passes just twice over the first ten games. He has done it each of the last three weeks. He needs two touchdown passes to tie David Garrard for third in Jaguars history. The Jaguars face a Jets defense that is in "1-2-3 Cancun!" mode. 

• Matthew Stafford was just 277 yards from passing Rivers for seventh on the career list. Stafford needs six touchdowns to pass Roethlisberger (8th all-time), eight to pass Dan Marino (7th), and is nine behind Rivers. Nacua had his best fantasy game of the season, breaking a three-game scoreless streak with his first multiple-touchdown game. The performance pushed him past George Pickens as the WR2 on the season, trailing Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Nacua needs 12 receptions and 1 touchdown to establish new career highs. Adams was held out of the endzone for the first time since Week 6. He became the fifth player in NFL history with 11 receiving touchdowns in a six-game span, joining Jerry Rice, Sterling Sharpe, Doug Baldwin, and Dwayne Bowe. He needs three more to tie Elroy Hirsch for the Rams single-season record. Parkinson is TE4 over the last five weeks and has worked up to the team's third leading receiver. He's played around 68% of the snaps since Tyler Higbee went down with an injury, with Terrance Ferguson and Davis Allen slotting around 30% each. The Rams play the Lions, with a 55.5 Vegas line, the highest in the NFL this season. A shootout should be expected. 

Offenses with Top 1 Option > 25% and Top 3 < 70% Target Share

• Drake London has been announced out of Week 15. Pitts holds a questionable designation for Thursday night football against the Buccaneers. Pitts' 90 yards were a season high. His 62 receptions are just six from his career high of 68. Pitts joined Trey McBride, Travis Kelce, and Tyler Warren as the only tight ends with 60+ receptions and 600+ yards in 2025. Pitts needs two more catches to tie Bert Emmanual for the 13th most in Falcons history and eight to reach Michael Haynes. Despite London's absence and few other receiving threats, Mooney has just one catch in five of eleven games. His season high is four. 

• Flowers needs 109 yards for consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. He needs ten catches and 168 yards for new career highs. Flowers is one of eleven players with 68+ receptions and 890+ yards and one touchdown or less. Likely was moments away from back-to-back massive games. Week 13, he fumbled the ball on the goal line against the Bengals on a 43-yard reception. In Week 14, he grasped a ball in the endzone, getting two feet down, before the play was ruled incomplete. The Bengals have been shredded by tight ends this season, and both Likely and Andrews are in play for fantasy. 

• Shedeur Sanders should be THE story from Week 14. He joined Joe Burrow as the only rookies to throw for 350+ yards and three touchdowns while adding a rushing touchdown. He is the first player in Browns history to do it. His 364 yards tied Brandon Weeden for the third most by a Browns rookie. Baker Mayfield has the top two spots. Fannin needs seven receptions to tie Kevin Johnson for the most by a Browns rookie, at 66. His 619 receiving yards are the ninth most by a Browns rookie. The Browns face a Bears defense that ranks league average against the pass. 

• Lamb was on his way to a monster game until a concussion knocked him out early in the second half. His status needs to be monitored. Further complicating matters is Jake Ferguson working through a calf injury. Meanwhile, Pickens has been playing with an injury over the last couple of weeks. Yikes. The Cowboys face a strong Vikings defense. Flournoy was the Week 14 story. He has climbed the depth chart above Kavontae Turpin and Jalen Tolbert and looked like a natural in a larger role. 

• The minimization of Troy Franklin is complete. Franklin led the Broncos in targets through the first ten weeks. His snap share was a season low of 53% in Week 13. That was halved in Week 14, with just 26%. Blocking has been cited as an issue. Lil'Jordan Humphrey, a bigger-bodied receiver capable of helping in the run game, returned to the team in Week 11 and played a season-high 38% of Week 14 snaps. The most likely scenario is that losing veteran J.K. Dobbins has forced adjustments in run blocking, as rookie Harvey lacks Dobbins' feel and vision at the position. Bryant has been a riser, though Sutton is the most obvious beneficiary of Franklin's absence. Sutton had just four catches between Weeks 9 and 10, totaling 54 yards. Over the last three weeks, he has averaged 5-61.  Sutton needs 87 yards to catch Ed McCaffrey for fifth in Broncos history. He is 27 receptions behind McCaffrey for fifth on the team's list in that category as well, though he has not seen the volume to project hitting the mark over the next four weeks. Bo Nix needs to average 261.5 yards per game to hit 4,000 on the season. The Broncos' playoff schedule has two league-average pass defenses with the Packers and Chiefs sandwiching a matchup with a strong Jacksonville unit.

• Collins' season has felt like a disappointment, yet he is the WR7. He is 84 yards from extending a consecutive 1,000-yard streak to three seasons. The Texans continued their trend of funneling targets to Collins, Schultz, and Higgins. They face an Arizona defense that was lit up by the Rams in Week 14 and could be without Woody Marks and Nick Chubb, forcing more onto the passing game.

• Houston leads the pass defense by a significant margin, with a -0.21 EPA compared to -0.11 for the second-place Rams. The Chiefs were Week 14's victim. Patrick Mahomes II is working through a knee injury. The Chiefs are playing for their playoff lives against the Chargers, who rank third in pass defense. Depending on the severity of Mahomes' knee, we could see him shut down for the fantasy playoffs if elimination happens. 

• Waddle is the fantasy WR9. He bounced back with a strong Week 14 after two down weeks. He needs 14 catches for his fourth 100 catch season and 188 yards for his fourth 1,000 yard year. His six touchdowns are two away from a career high of eight. The Dolphins have won four straight and five of six. Crazy to think that if the Bills had not been picky about which first-round pick to trade, he could have solidified their receiver room. The trend of two tight-end looks continued. Outside of Waddle and De'Von Achane, no pieces are fantasy relevant. The Dolphins face a Steelers defense that has turned things around after a slow start.  

• Jefferson had fewer yards than Jalen Nailor and Josh Oliver. He had one more yard than Tai Felton and two more yards than Ben Sims. This is a week after a four-yard performance. Washington is the best matchup for fantasy receivers. Dallas is another great matchup in Week 15, though anyone who made the playoffs with Jefferson has to feel very nervous. 

• The Jets have fallen into funneling targets to Taylor, Metchie, and Mitchell. Tyrod Taylor was injured early, moving undrafted rookie Brady Cook into a potential starting role. Taylor's 44 catches are the eighth most by a Jets rookie. He needs four catches to tie Dustin Keller for the most by a Jets rookie tight end, moving him into fifth on the team's list. His 369 yards are 18th on the rookie list. The Jets face a tough Jaguars defense. If Cook starts at quarterback, we will not want anyone in our fantasy playoffs outside of Breece Hall. 

• Metcalf set a season high in receptions and yards. He needs 247 to hit 1,000. After claiming Thielen on waivers, the Steelers made Roman Wilson a healthy scratch while Thielen played the second-most snaps behind Metcalf. Metcalf was examined for internal injuries at a Baltimore hospital following the game, though he is expected to be fine for Week 15. Darnell Washington suffered a concussion, and his status for Week 15 is in question. Jonnu Smith was called out by Aaron Rodgers following Week 13 and had a season low of one target in Week 14. Smith averaged 4.25 targets per game through the first eight weeks and is down to just two per game over the last five. If Washington is out, Pat Freiermuth becomes an interesting streamer against a Dolphins defense that has allowed the third most fantasy points to tight ends. 

• Smith-Njigba bounced back after a down Week 13, though he has fallen well off the 2,000-yard pace. He would need to average 143 yards per game to close the season. He needs 134 yards per game for Calvin Johnson's record. He is 11 receptions away from tying his own team record of 100 catches. 

• The Titans have leaned on their rookies, with Dike and Elic Ayomanor leading the team in targets. Gunnar Helm has slowly but surely taken over from Chig Okonkwo as the top tight end. It has not meant much in fantasy production, though Helm did set the team record for rookie tight end receptions. That said, Okonkwo is a pending free agent, and Tennessee is playing for pride. They could decide to see what their rookie can do with an opportunity to be the every-down player. The Titans face a 49ers defense that has struggled against the pass.

Offenses Under All Thresholds

• The Bills were the latest team to feast on the Bengals' tight end weakness. Knox had the third-most yards of his career. He had 14 targets through the first nine games and has 22 over the last five. The Bills have rotated five wide receivers since Week 4. Week 15 is a huge matchup against the Patriots, though it is hard to feel good about starting any Bills receiver. 

• Rome Odunze was out, allowing Burden to lead the team in receiving. DJ Moore has been playing through multiple injuries and is averaging 1.8 receptions and 19 yards over the last five games. Coach Ben Johnson, following the game: "I thought going into the game we might have had more for him than any other player in the offense. I was a little surprised at the end when I saw the stat sheet for one catch, as he had." Chicago has leaned on the run, though they face a Browns defense that has been much better against the run than the pass. 

• Watson scored twice for the second time in four games. He has five touchdowns in that span and ranks as the overall WR5 from Weeks 11 to 14. His return has given Green Bay the spark the passing offense lacked. Reed returned for the first game since Week 2. The Packers face a stiff test against Denver's elite defense. 

• Justin Herbert struggled after surgery on his non-throwing hand. McConkey is on the injury report with a foot/ankle injury. McConkey was the WR56 from Weeks 1-4, then the WR4 from Weeks 5-10, before falling back to WR65 from Weeks 11-14. The Chargers face a Chiefs defense that played with playoff intensity against Houston in Week 14. A Chiefs loss could mathematically eliminate them from the playoffs, and it is difficult to feel good about any of the Chargers' receiving game in this matchup. 

• Bech played 11% of snaps just two weeks ago. Then Chip Kelly was fired. He played 56% in Week 13 and 82% in Week 14. Bech has moved into desperation flex consideration, though his game plays better in PPR formats.  Geno Smith is expected to miss Week 15, putting Kenny Pickett into a revenge matchup against the Eagles, where he was the backup in 2024. The Eagles have been the third-best defense against tight ends, putting Bowers in a challenging position. Since returning in Week 9, Bowers is the TE2, with 92.6 points, while Trey McBride has 98.6 over that span.

Bye Weeks

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