The NFL preseason has finally ended, releasing us from the stress of Chip Kelly's Raiders tight end rotation and priming fantasy managers everywhere for a push to the draft season finish line. With that in mind, it's time for a final rundown of sleepers, busts, ADP values, and stats to know before you draft.
1. Keon Coleman and Joshua Palmer are both excellent values.
Coleman (Footballguys average draft position WR48) and Palmer (ADP WR63) have been daily performers in a Bills camp that has seen Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and Elijah Moore miss time. Joe Brady's offense relies on vertical routes from his outside receivers. A rookie Coleman, battling an injury, Mack Hollins, still unemployed, Amari Cooper, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling split those roles.
The Bills acted quickly to sign Palmer in free agency, and Coleman has blossomed in his second year. Robbie Chosen is the boom case for this role. Chosen has spent his entire career as a vertical threat. In 2020, with Brady as his OC, he turned in a 95-1,096 season with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. Coleman and Palmer play with Josh Allen.
2. Dalton Kincaid, not a thing.
3. Stefon Diggs, DeMario Douglas, and TreVeyon Henderson see heavy passing volume.
The slot role and passing back role in Josh McDaniels' offense are well known. Douglas has served it since Camp opened. Outside of undrafted rookie Efton Chism III, Diggs is the only other receiver capable of working in this role. Diggs likely will not leave the field. He will shift inside if receivers like Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins play together.
Henderson is a supercharged version of past fabled Patriots receiving backs James White and Shane Vereen. Henderson excels at pass protection for a rookie, and his speed and comfort tracking the ball make him a vertical threat. This ability can invert the defense, allowing Diggs and Douglas to work underneath the space he clears.
4. Breece Hall is loading a "Josh Jacobs Shutdown Special."
Jacobs led the NFL with 1,653 rush yards in 2022. Entering 2023, he refused to sign the franchise tag and missed all of the preseason. The result was a lost year where he averaged 3.5 yards per carry. Following the season, he made it to free agency, signed in Green Bay, and rebounded to an RB5 finish.
Hall is in a contract year. The Jets have told him what they think, putting him into a three-way committee with Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. The early reports have been brutal, with Allen looking clearly better than Hall. Hall had a disappointing 2024 after holding as the overall RB2 for most of 2023. Is it more likely that Hall has completely fallen off at age 24, or that he knows making it to free agency is all that matters?
5. Braelon Allen is your last chance at 200+ touches.
Allen holds an RB45 ADP. He will likely go earlier in your draft. But despite the positive camp reports, he has not caught the rocketship rise of a back like Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
6. Arian Smith - a name to know
7. The Dolphins are on a death march.
Back-to-back shared practices with the Lions and Bears, with reports of the Dolphins complaining about physicality. Questions on the offensive line. Never-ending concerns about Tua Tagovailoa's future. De'Von Achane is working through a calf injury. Tyreek Hill is in persistent trade rumors. Mike McDonald is the favorite to be the next coach fired, according to betting odds. Young players Ollie Gordon II and Malik Washington should get a chance if the wheels fall off.
8. The Bengals remain a Wagon.
Take the layups. Tahj Brooks, Andrei Iosivas, and Mike Gesicki are the cheapest entry points, but every ADP in this offense is attractive.
9. Rashod Bateman hits 1,000 yards.
For most players, progression is a ladder. Earn the trust of the staff to get on the field. Deliver and earn gameplanned opportunities. Bateman battled injuries and inconsistencies early in his career. He broke out with 756 yards and nine touchdowns in 2024. The result was a three-year contract extension. Isaiah Likely has missed time, granting additional opportunity for Lamar Jackson's connection with Bateman to grow.
10. Harold Fannin Jr. is a thing.
Fannin and David Njoku offer a complementary skill set, with Njoku's ability to serve as an inline tight end, allowing Fannin to move through the formation. The Browns receiver group is full of uncertainty, and Fannin is undoubtedly one of the four most talented options. The threshold for tight end utility in fantasy is low enough that Fannin can hit it with Njoku. If Njoku misses time, he likely locks into starting lineups.
11. Jerry Jeudy is priced at his floor.
Jeudy was WR6 following Amari Cooper's trade in 2024. His ADP is WR32. The Browns will be in trailing game scripts, and Joe Flacco has proven his ability to support fantasy production. There is no receiver on the board after Jeudy with as good a chance at 150 targets.
12. All the DK Metcalf.
Metcalf has failed to finish in the Top 18 receivers just once in the last five seasons. His ADP is WR21. Aaron Rodgers was better than many want to realize in 2024, placing as QB14 following the arrival of Davante Adams in Week 7. His counting numbers were better than his final season in Green Bay. Rodgers knows to trust his best playmaker and feeds him, likely regardless of Arthur Smith's schemes that spread the ball around. Garrett Wilson was fifth at 154 targets with Rodgers in 2024, while Adams was third at 114 targets after arriving in Week 7. Metcalf should threaten his career high of 141.
13. Tyler Warren or Bust.
Daniel Jones' job is not to actively lose football games. If Jones can accomplish that and give Jonathan Taylor a chance to win, the Colts can threaten the division. The Colts have a deep and talented receiver room, but the best path toward allowing Jones to accomplish his goal is featuring the massive rookie target. Warren has a higher ceiling than any other Colts receiver.
14. Cameron Ward is HIM.
Ward has a tireless work ethic and the authentic confidence to ignite a turnaround. The Titans boast one of the best lines in the NFL, and Ward has two reliable targets in a talented backfield. There is more talent here than in a typical first overall team; the Titans' draft placement was primarily influenced by a quarterback who actively lost football games.
I am much too old to use the term "HIM". If I show up to a live stream with a backwards hat and say "bro", please alert Joe.
15. Calvin Ridley and Chig Okonkwo can both be Top 10 in targets for their positions.
Ridley was 12th in wide receiver targets, and Okonkwo was 12th in tight end targets following the DeAndre Hopkins trade. That was playing with Will Levis and Mason Rudolph. The offensive ceiling is much higher with Ward. Ridley is WR30 and Okonkwo is TE22 in ADP.
KISS Principle.
16. Travis Hunter is Shohei Ohtani.
Hat tip to Sigmund Bloom. Fear of the unknown has given Hunter an attractive ADP at 67 overall. Worry more about targets than snap counts. If you have any faith at all in Liam Coen, trust the creative offensive mind to find a way to utilize his generational talent.
17. Jacksonville's running backs are whack-a-moles.
It is a mortal lock that the Jaguars are going to play two running backs, following Coen's Tampa Bay blueprint. The current problem is that there are three, between Travis Etienne Jr., Tank Bigsby, and Bhayshul Tuten. In a two-back system, you have a 33% chance of drawing nothing. The kicker is that Coen could play all three. If they play three, you play none.
The great beat writer John Shipley does provide an out, speculating that one of the veterans could be traded.
18. Christian Kirk, Fantasy Zombie
Kirk sits at WR55 in ADP, right behind Keenan Allen and in front of rookie Luther Burden III. Allen signed on August 5th, while Burden has spent much of camp on the second team. Teammate Jayden Higgins is five spots ahead. Higgins is projected to start the year behind Xavier Hutchinson. Kirk was WR11 in 2022. He was WR23 in 2023 before his season ended in Week 11. 2024 was a lost season. He's immediately stepped in to complement star Nico Collins and, at age 28, is still in a prime window.
19. Xavier Worthy is inevitable.
Worry less about what the overall efficiency stats say about his rookie year and more about Andy Reid, one of the sharpest minds in the history of football, scheming ways to get the fastest player in the history of the Combine double-digit opportunities.
20. We have never had a better opportunity to stack Patrick Mahomes II with his best weapons.
Worthy's ADP is 50th, Mahomes is 57th, Rashee Rice is 58th, Isiah Pacheco is 63rd, and Travis Kelce is 65th. Depending on the site, Worthy is between picks 42 and 70, Mahomes between 29 and 81, Rice between 43 and 72, Pacheco between 55 and 77, and Kelce between 40 and 83.
On multiple sites, we can wait until the fourth round and mega stack Worthy, Rice, Pacheco, and Mahomes. Trepidation considering Mahomes' 3,928 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2024 is understandable. But Mahomes and Peyton Manning are the only players with 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in a season. Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees are the only players with multiple 5,000-yard passing seasons.
Drafters can take three elite players, then start their Chiefs mega stack. If Mahomes hits another 5,000-yard season, that team would be near impossible to beat.
21. Leave every draft with Isiah Pacheco.
Pacheco closed the 2024 draft season holding a 2nd-round ADP. He had a year from hell, eventually returning at the end of the year from a fractured fibula. The Chiefs made minimal changes to the running back situation that led to Pacheco being drafted in the 2nd round.
His ADP is 63.
KISS Principle.
22. Dont'e Thornton Jr. is Al Davis's fever dream.
Thornton is fast enough to score 13+ fantasy points on any snap.
He's been a near every-down player since May OTAs.
His ADP is 199 overall.
He's free.
23. Bo Nix could be Drew Brees with 500 rushing yards.
Nix was the first rookie in NFL history with 3,750+ pass yards, 25+ touchdowns, 400+ rush yards, and 4+ rushing touchdowns. He finished QB7.
His running backs combined for 85 receptions and 460 yards. His tight ends combined for 51 receptions and 483 yards.
The Broncos added RJ Harvey, JK Dobbins, and Evan Engram.
Brees rushed for 130 yards in his first full season starting. He never topped 86 yards again.
Nix's ADP is QB8.
24. Omarion Hampton is the best pick in the 3rd round.
Hampton quickly moved up from a fourth-round ADP following the Najee Harris injury announcement. He stalled in the middle of the third.
Dobbins played 13 games in 2024. He was an RB1 in six.
Hampton is a better player than Dobbins.
25. Quentin Johnston is a steal in bestball.
Johnston had a brutal rookie season. He developed and was WR37 in 2024. He is WR74 in ADP, going 215 overall.
Johnson is a starter for the Chargers who has had an excellent camp. He is likely playing in 2 WR sets. He's going 50 spots after rookie teammate Tre' Harris, who has had a disappointing start to his rookie year and potentially projects as Chargers WR5.
Johnston could score double-digit touchdowns.
26. Jahan Dotson, Fantasy Zombie
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