We live in one of the strangest times of college football history. Conference rivals are openly courting the head coach of a team locked into the playoffs. The number one team in the nation and defending national champion is treating conference games like August exhibitions. Yet the conversation centers on the belief that they are not actually good. The College Football Playoff committee had to replace its chairman after Baylor AD Mack Rhoades stepped down amid allegations and a potential investigation. The Big Ten and SEC are leading meetings about overhauling the CFP format. James Franklin is the new coach at Virginia Tech. Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt appears to be on the verge of declaring portal free agency.
Completely normal stuff.
We take a look at how the landscape plays out regarding the playoff field, projected 2026 draft prospects, and the spotlight games.
The Playoff Picture
- Ohio State (10-0)
- Indiana (11-0)
- Texas A&M (10-0)
- Georgia (9-1)
- Texas Tech (10-1)
- Ole Miss (10-1)
- Oregon (9-1)
- Oklahoma (8-2)
- Notre Dame (8-2)
- Alabama (8-2)
- BYU (9-1)
- Utah (8-2)
- Miami (8-2)
- Vanderbilt (8-2)
- USC (8-2)
- Georgia Tech (9-1)
- Texas (7-3)
- Michigan (8-2)
- Virginia (9-2)
- Tennessee (7-3)
- Illinois (7-3)
- Missouri (7-3)
- Houston (8-2)
- Tulane (8-2)
- Arizona St. (7-3)
Major Takeaways
The committee set a precedent in 2024 by admitting SMU into the playoff despite an ACC title game loss. It will be interesting to see if Texas Tech is locked out of landing a Top 4 seed and a first-round bye or if they can jump the SEC or Big Ten title game loser.
This picture is going to change. At a minimum, 9 of the top 20 teams are going to lose a game. That will start this week, with Oregon playing USC. Week 14 will be impactful, with Ohio State vs. Michigan, Georgia vs. Georgia Tech, Texas A&M vs. Texas, and Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee.
The committee does not want to acknowledge Miami's win over Notre Dame. The question was asked on this week's conference call, and new committee chair Hunter Yuracheck attempted to state that the two teams are not currently being compared based upon the buckets they fall in. How #9 and #13 are not in a conversation when they hold a similar record is likely a different conversation.
If Georgia Tech beats Pitt, they are in the ACC title game. If that scenario plays out, Virginia is likely in with a win over Virginia Tech, though a complicated tiebreaker scenario could push SMU ahead.
The cleanest scenario remaining: Ohio St. wins out, beating Michigan. 12-0 Indiana loses the Big Ten title game, likely lands as a three seed. Texas A&M wins out. Texas Tech wins out. No other upsets. That sets the current Top 10 as the field, with the ACC and "other" champions as the 11th- and 12th-seeds, respectively.
If you want chaos, root for USC and Michigan to win out, Texas to beat Texas A&M, and Georgia Tech to beat Georgia.
Near Locks
- Ohio St
- Indiana
- Texas A&M
- Georgia
- Ole Miss
- Oregon
These teams would all likely need to lose twice, and we are running out of opportunities to do so.
Placeholders
- Big 12 Champ
- ACC Champ
- Highest-ranked remaining champ
Win Out and In
- Alabama
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
Wildcards
- 10-2 Vanderbilt
- 10-2 USC
- 10-2 Michigan
- 11-2 Texas Tech (Big 12 title game loser)
- 11-2 Georgia Tech (with a win over Georgia)
- 10-2 Miami
- 10-2 Utah
The Big Board
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There are only minor changes to the board. We have a 12-week sample size and very few reasons to make dramatic changes at this point.
Carnell Tate has missed the last two games for Ohio State, and we have nothing but rumors ranging from an Achilles injury to his agent telling him to shut down the season because of the draft. Reporting of injuries in college is very different from the NFL.
Sam Leavitt was on the last Big Board. His involvement in transfer rumors suggests he will spend another year in school.