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NFL Week 18 is the trickiest week of the season. Teams with playoff intensity are intermixed with those simply hoping to finish the year healthy.
We go game by game to see who has things to play for, either from a team perspective or based on statistical milestones.
A note: "Motivation" is entirely made up and subjective. Players will give their all, but teams will make selective decisions about who plays and who sits out. For projected standings, we used the Vegas lines to determine winners.
First, an overview of the Week 18 slate.
Key
- Fighting Playoff Elimination
- Playoff Seeding
- Spoilers
Games With Both Teams Motivated
- Carolina at Tampa Bay
- Baltimore at Pittsburgh
- Seattle at San Francisco
- LA Chargers at Denver
Games With One Team Motivated
- Indianapolis at Houston
- Tennessee at Jacksonville
- Green Bay at Minnesota
- NY Jets at Buffalo
- Detroit at Chicago
- Arizona at LA Rams
- Miami at New England
- Washington at Philadelphia
- New Orleans at Atlanta
Games With Neither Team Motivated
- Cleveland at Cincinnati
- Dallas at NY Giants
- Kansas City at Las Vegas
Now, here's a game-by-game look at Week 18 motivation.
Saturday, January 3rd - 4:30 pm Eastern
Carolina (8-8) at Tampa Bay (7-9) (ESPN/ABC)
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Early Line: Tampa Bay - 3.2, Total 44.5
Carolina Motivation: 10/10
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Projected Playoff Position: NFC #4 Seed (Range: NFC #4 Seed to 13th pick)
Tampa Bay Motivation: 10/10
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Projected Draft Position: #14 Overall (Range: NFC #4 Seed to 12th pick)
The Falcons' win over the Rams on Monday Night threw a dramatic wrench into the NFC South championship race. The simple scenario: a Panthers win clinches the NFC South. If the Buccaneers win, both teams will be watching the Atlanta-New Orleans game. A Buccaneers-Falcons win combination puts three teams in first with 8-9 records. The Panthers would win that tiebreaker.
Fantasy Impact: Rico Dowdle needs seven yards for a $1 million contract incentive. Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan are coming off disappointing performances. They were much more productive in Week 16 against Tampa Bay. Jalen Coker and Chuba Hubbard are options in deeper leagues.
Baker Mayfield had his best game since Week 5 last week. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr., and Jalen McMillan are the top receiving options, as Emeka Egbuka has been quiet over the second half of the season, especially after all three other receivers returned from injury. Bucky Irving has led the backs but also failed to put up substantial fantasy numbers. Rachaad White and Sean Tucker are free agents following the 2025 season and are looking to make an impact to improve their value.
Revenge: Baker Mayfield, Teddy Bridgewater, David Moore
Saturday, January 3rd - 8:00 pm Eastern
Seattle (13-3) at San Francisco (12-4) (ESPN/ABC)
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Early Line: Seattle -1.5, Total 49.5
Seattle Motivation: 10/10
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Projected Playoff Position: NFC #1 Seed (Range: NFC #1 to #5 Seed)
San Francisco Motivation: 10/10
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Projected Playoff Position: NFC #6 Seed (Range: NFC #1 to #6 Seed)
The winner takes the #1 seed in the NFC. The Rams' loss to Atlanta ensures the Seahawks can fall no lower than fifth. If the 49ers lose, they would need the Rams to lose to the Cardinals to avoid falling to the six seed.
Fantasy Impact: Play everyone you have in this game. Rashid Shaheed will likely be out for Seattle. There is optimism that George Kittle will be available after missing Week 17 for the 49ers. Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall are in play for the 49ers. Sam Darnold, Zach Charbonnet, Ken Walker III, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and A.J. Barner are the options for the Seahawks. Cooper Kupp is a desperation option.
Given the uncertainty around the Week 18 schedule, kickoff timing, and projected points, this is a game to target when players are available.
Revenge: Sam Darnold, Eric Saubert
Sunday, January 4th - 1:00 pm Eastern
Indianapolis (8-8) at Houston (11-5) (CBS)
- Early Line: Houston -10.0, Total 40.5
Indianapolis Motivation: 0/10
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Playoff Position: 15th Overall (Range: 14th pick to 18th pick, Current SoS: .537)
Houston Motivation: 10/10
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Projected Draft Position: AFC #5 Seed (Range: AFC #3 to #7 Seed)
Houston can win the AFC South with a win and a Jacksonville loss. They cannot climb higher than the #3 seed. A loss, combined with Buffalo and LA Chargers wins, would drop them to the #7 seed.
Indianapolis traded its pick to the Jets in the Sauce Gardner move. The Colts should be motivated to play spoiler with no draft consideration attached.
Fantasy Impact: Houston's pieces are in play, with C.J. Stroud, Woody Marks, and Nico Collins the priorities. Tight end Dalton Schultz has been reliable. Rookie receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel had big games in Week 17. Collins has incentives in play, but it would take 24 receptions and 343 yards to trigger them.
The Colts announced rookie Riley Leonard will start at quarterback over Philip Rivers. Jonathan Taylor is the headliner as he chases the NFL rushing crown. He trails James Cook by 47 yards. Cook kicks off after Taylor. Michael Pittman Jr needs 227 yards to trigger a $250,000 incentive. Pittman has a $29 million cap hit in 2026 that will likely require a restructuring or extension, or force the Colts to move on. Alec Pierce is a pending free agent who should have ample attention if he gets to the open market.
Tennessee (3-13) at Jacksonville (12-4) (CBS)
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Early Line: Jacksonville -11.5, Total 47.5
Tennessee Motivation: 0/10
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Playoff Position: 4th Overall (Range: 2nd pick to 7th pick, Current SoS: .574)
Jacksonville Motivation: 10/10
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Projected Draft Position: AFC #3 Seed (Range: AFC #1 to #5 Seed)
Jacksonville has a wide range of outcomes, from grabbing the #1 seed with a win and a Denver and New England loss, to falling to the #5 seed with a loss and a Texans win. A win combined with either Denver or New England losing would move them to the #2 seed. The Jaguars play before Denver and New England, so they want to get to the clubhouse with the lead, then hope for chaos.
Tennessee cannot get to the 1st overall pick, but, like multiple teams, anything from the 2nd overall pick to the 7th pick is in play.
Fantasy Impact: Jacksonville is a full go offensively, and Trevor Lawrence has been red hot. Travis Etienne Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and Brenton Strange are all in play for fantasy and DFS purposes. Jacksonville has multiple contract incentives in play, but none are likely to be reached.
Tennessee will play all its pieces. Cameron Ward remains at quarterback, and Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears will both be involved at running back. The team has cycled receivers, leaning on rookies Chimere Dike, Elic Ayomanor, and Gunnar Helm in different moments. Chig Okonkwo is a pending free agent. Pollard is chasing significant contract incentives, needing 66 rushing yards for $250,000, and two touchdowns would give him $200,000. Van Jefferson joins Okonkwo as a pending free agent; one reception will earn him a $100,000 incentive.
Revenge: Calvin Ridley (IR)
Green Bay (9-6-1) at Minnesota (8-8) (FOX)
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Early Line: Minnesota -6.5, Total 36.5
Green Bay Motivation: 0/10
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Playoff Position: NFC #7 Seed
Minnesota Motivation: 2/10
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Projected Draft Position: 18th Overall (Range: 13th pick to 18th pick, Current SoS: .517)
Green Bay is the only team in the NFL that knows precisely where it will be seeded after Week 18. The Packers are locked into the 7th seed and will wait to see whether they travel to Chicago or Philadelphia. The Packers have not officially announced they will rest key starters, but they have been hammered with injuries, and it would be a surprise to see them not take advantage of the situation. The one mitigating factor is Jordan Love missing Week 17 with a concussion and the potential rust concerns, though that feels more like a media talking point than an actionable decision.
Minnesota has played spoiler down the stretch, winning four straight and eliminating the Cowboys and Lions from playoff contention.
Fantasy Impact: This is not a matchup to aggressively target in fantasy, evidenced by the 36.5 point total.
Malik Willis should receive another opportunity to build upon a strong resume for a bridge quarterback opportunity. Willis will be a free agent following the season, and Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Halfley is in the running for head coach opportunities, potentially creating a natural pairing. We should not expect to see Josh Jacobs, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, or Romeo Doubs in a meaningful role, as all are high-value to the offense and have worked through injuries this season. It could be an opportunity for rookie Matthew Golden to have a showcase game. Dontayvion Wicks suffered a concussion against Baltimore in Week 17. The only incentive in play is John Fitzpatrick topping 35% of the offensive snaps. He is at 35.2% for the year.
The Vikings expect Max Brosmer to start again. Brosmer was better in Week 17, though the offense struggled badly. Justin Jefferson is chasing 1,000 yards. Josh Oliver has a somewhat unrealistic incentive in play, needing two touchdowns. Jordan Mason has a yardage incentive in play, though he has missed the last couple of games with a leg injury. Jailen Nailor is the only pending free agent of note.
Revenge: Aaron Jones Sr., Ben Sims
New Orleans (6-10) at Atlanta (7-9) (FOX)
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Early Line: Atlanta -2.5, Total 43.5
New Orleans Motivation: 4/10
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Projected Draft Position: 8th Overall (Range: 8th pick to 12th pick, Current SoS: .493)
Atlanta Motivation: 10/10
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Projected Draft Position: 13th Overall (Range: 8th pick to 15th pick, Current SoS: .496)
This matchup became the most bizarre of the week after the Falcons upset the Rams on Monday Night. The Falcons can win a share of the NFC South, though they would lose the tiebreaker to the Panthers. If the Buccaneers beat the Panthers on Saturday, a Falcons win would force a three-way tie that ends with Carolina. The Falcons do not own their own 1st round pick, trading it to the Rams for James Pearce Jr. in 2025's draft. There is little reason for them not to try for a share of the division.
On the Saints' side, they have been playing spoiler for two months. They are on a 5-2 run after starting 1-8, and they have a 4-game winning streak. The Texans have the longest active streak, at 8, the Jaguars are at 7, and the Seahawks and 49ers are at 6. A win here would give the Saints a chance at the longest active streak when the 2026 season starts. Kellen Moore is working to instill a winning culture in New Orleans and will not disrupt that for a draft position.
The intensity of this rivalry is the cherry on top. These teams fall into the classic "They do not like each other" trope.
Fantasy Impact: Bijan Robinson has a chance to break the NFL's scrimmage yardage record, needing 254 yards. A huge lift, but it is in play. Kirk Cousins could be getting his final opportunity to show a team he can be their bridge starter. His contract includes an out, and Atlanta may feel compelled to exercise it given the $57 million at play. Kyle Pitts Sr. and Tyler Allgeier are pending free agents. The Falcons have no contract incentives in play.
The Saints hit their significant contract incentives with Juwan Johnson's big season. Most of the roster is under contract for 2026, with Taysom Hill the significant question mark. Chris Olave becomes extension eligible and would be looking to cap his best season before those negotiations. Olave can not claim the top spot in any receiving categories, though he could land inside the Top 5 for Saints seasons in all three triple crown categories of receptions, yards, and touchdowns. There is hope Devin Neal can return from the hamstring injury that has cost the last couple of weeks. Cameron Jordan could be playing his final game with the franchise; he is the Saints' all-time sack leader.
Cleveland (4-12) at Cincinnati (6-10) (CBS)
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Early Line: Cincinnati -7.5, Total 44.5
Cleveland Motivation: 0/10
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Projected Draft Position: 6th Overall (Range: 2nd pick to 7th pick, Current SoS: .491)
Cincinnati Motivation: 0/10
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Projected Draft Position: 11th Overall (Range: 8th pick to 12th pick, Current SoS: .517)
The Browns got the chance to play spoiler to rival Pittsburgh in Week 17 and came through, but the win took them out of the running for the 1st overall pick. They can still reach 2nd, but it would take the Giants, Cardinals, Jets, and Titans to all win. Unlikely. A win drops them to 7th at the lowest, as there is a two-win gap between 7th and 8th.
The Bengals also won in Week 17, though their win over Arizona did not carry the silver lining of ruining Pittsburgh's weekend. Both teams are playing their starters as Zach Taylor announced Joe Burrow would be on the field.
Fantasy Impact: The Browns are chasing history, with Myles Garrett going for the NFL sack record. Stellar rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. is unlikely to play after leaving Week 17 with an injury. The Browns have been without David Njoku for multiple weeks; he could move into second on the team's reception list. The Browns have a void option on Njoku's deal, and he carries a massive $24 million cap hit. If active, he could be playing his final game with the franchise, given Fannin's emergence. The Browns have no other notable pending free agents.
The Bengals are also pursuing milestones. Ja'Marr Chase could break his own team record for receptions in a season, needing ten. Chase Brown could record his first 1,000-yard season, while Tee Higgins could set a career high for touchdown receptions. Samaje Perine is the only Bengal chasing obtainable contract incentives, though it would take 160 rushing yards. Joe Flacco, Noah Fant, and Tanner Hudson are pending free agents.
Revenge: Joe Flacco, Trayveon Williams
Dallas (7-8-1) at NY Giants (3-13) (FOX)
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Early Line: Dallas -5.5, Total 52.5
Dallas Motivation: 0/10
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Projected Draft Position: 16th Overall (Range: 11th pick to 18th pick, Current SoS: .436)
NY Giants Motivation: 0/10
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Projected Draft Position: 2nd Overall (Range: 1st pick to 7th pick, Current SoS: .531)
The Giants and the Raiders are the only teams capable of getting the #1 overall pick. The boost to the Jets' SoS after adding Buffalo in Week 18 will take them out of the running, while Tennessee and Arizona's metrics are already too high. They showed in Week 17's dominant tankathon win over the Raiders that they are still trying. The team will have a new coach and was not shy in saying everyone on the roster, including Jaxson Dart, would be evaluated following the season.
Brian Schottenheimer confirmed that the Cowboys will play their starters in Week 18. The Cowboys played everyone against the Commanders in Week 17 in a similar situation. The tie against Green Bay takes tiebreakers out of the conversation; they would pick behind all the teams with seven wins or behind all the eight-win teams.
Fantasy Impact: Week 2's 40-37 shootout showed everyone is a go here for fantasy purposes.
Dak Prescott can set the franchise's all-time passing touchdowns record. He already owns the yardage record. He can also set the franchise record for single-season yardage. George Pickens is set to be a free agent, looking to hit the market on a high note. Wan'Wan'Dale Robinson is in a similar position for the Giants. Both tight end Jake Ferguson and running back Javonte Williams were removed from the Christmas Day game against Washington with injuries. Malik Davis would be the top back if Williams is out, and can be on the radar in the deepest leagues even if Williams starts. Tight end Theo Johnson missed Week 17 with an illness for the Giants; he should be good to return. Tyrone Tracy Jr. has led a 65-35 split with Devin Singletary over the second half of the season.
Pickens, Robinson, Williams, Davis, Cowboys receiver Jalen Tolbert, and Giants tight end Daniel Bellinger are all potential free agents looking to end the season on a high note. Neither team has significant contract incentives in play.