With Le'Veon Bell out for the rest of the season, what are you thinking in terms of replacement? Do you just next man up to Devonta Freeman, Adrian Peterson and Todd Gurley or will you play the contrarian role and look for under-owned value?
Chad Parsons: I like Freeman quite a bit this week. The Falcons should have an excellent game script against San Francisco and Freeman is a touchdown regression candidate (scoreless on his last 54 rushes) given his high level volume and red zone involvement. Moving down in salary, Darren McFadden and DeAngelo Williams are quality combinations of opportunity and cost with recent subtractions from their respective backfields.
Danny Tuccitto: Well, considering he's the 5th-least valuable tight according to my numbers, with only a 1.0% chance of achieving GPP value, I'm certainly not feeling it. To put that in perspective, Rob Gronkowski is twice as valuable despite costing $1,000 more. It's certainly within the realm of possibility that Reed ends up scoring like a Top 3 tight end this week, but someone like Ben Watson has just as much upside for a fraction of the price.
Maurile Tremblay: Devonta Freeman and Todd Gurley now have less competition in the "running backs I'm willing to pay top dollar for" category. None of my lineups will have Adrian Peterson in them this week against that rough Rams defense, but I will have a lot of combinations of either Freeman or Gurley plus a cheaper option like Darren McFadden, Jeremy Langford. (DeAngelo Williams, unfortunately, is not priced as low at FantasyScore as at some other sites -- he's just $100 more than Dion Lewis.)
Andrew Garda: A little from column A, a bit from column B. I still like to float out a stud, especially in a cash game, so Freeman (who Chad is right to point out should go off this weekend) or Gurley is likely to be in some cash lineups and even the occasional GPP, since there is plenty of value at other positions this week as well.
That said, if I want to spend money elsewhere, there are favorable players for less. In addition to the McFadden/Williams combo already mentioned, I like Jonathan Stewart against a Green Bay Packers defense you can run on. He’s had a full load of carries the last three games and either topped 100 yards or scored a touchdown. I love him at $5400.
At $7200, Jordan Reed seems like an odd player to have as the second most expensive tight end on the site. Sure he went off against Tampa Bay, but even before his injury he was a decent tight end play and certainly not one of the top two or three. Are we feeling this price against New England? Why or why not?
Parsons: After Rob Gronkowski the tight end position is a grab bag of week-to-week plays. Volume should not be an issue for overmatched Washington in New England and Reed has seen at least eight targets in all but one game this season. Antonio Gates and Jordan Reed actually have more targets per game than Gronkowski this season. The salary rank is justified as Reed has a high floor at a high variance position.
Tremblay: I think Jordan Reed is a top five tight end this week in expected points, but not in value. Antonio Gates and Greg Olsen are both $400 cheaper than Reed, and they are every bit as studly.
Garda: It’s interesting how Danny and Chad/Maurile are on complete opposite sides here while I land in the middle. I think the price works OK because Washington is going to have to throw a ton to keep up and Reed has seen a lot of targets overall this year. However, his production has been all over the place and for the price, I don’t love it when I can go with Greg Olsen or Antonio Gates for less and get consistent production. Or even dip lower and roll the dice on Martellus Bennett or Charles Clay, who is attractive because Sammy Watkins might not play and Tyrod Taylor needs weapons.
So I guess, while I land a bit in the middle, I’m more in the ‘go elsewhere’ camp than not, but with less fancy numbers than Danny.
Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson face a solid (though flawed) Jets secondary. Hurns is priced at $5900 while Robinson is marked at $7500. Both have been highly productive, but are they matchup proof? Which way are you leaning and are you worried about Revis for either one?
Tuccitto: Revis is probably going to shadow Robinson and Antonio Cromartie grades out as below average according to Pro Football Focus. This, coupled with their respective salaries, means Robinson is a clear fade, while Hurns isn't a fade at all.
Tremblay: I believe that Darrelle Revis will mainly cover Robinson, leaving Hurns to go against Antonio Cromartie. Couple that with the fact that Hurns is $2,600 cheaper than Robinson, and I think Hurns is the much better play this week. Still, though, i like Michael Crabtree a lot better than Hurns for that same $5,900.
Garda: Cromartie isn’t just below average—last week he was flat out horrible trying to cover Raiders receivers who weren’t even named Amari Cooper. Cro has regressed a ton this year and with Buster Skrine banged up and Calvin Pryor maybe not playing, whomever is against Cromartie could have a field day. I’d lean towards Hurns as well, as I think the Jaguars will pass and have success on that side of the field.
It looks like we finally get Austin Seferian-Jenkins this weekend as the Bucs meet the definitely vulnerable New York Giants defense. At $4500, how confident are you that he exceeds that value price considering we have all of one game to go on?
Parsons: Austin Seferian-Jenkins looked outstanding in two-game preview to open the season. Likely without Vincent Jackson and already missing any third receiver presence with the loss of Louis Murphy, Seferian-Jenkins would be the unquestioned No.2 target in Tampa Bay. The Giants are allowing more than 80 yards per game to opposing tight ends, including an NFL-high 58 receptions this season. Ben Watson and Charles Clay both eclipsed 110 yards against the Giants and Garrett Celek was the only lead tight end not to catch at least four passes against them this season.
Tuccitto: We may only have one game to go on for Serferian-Jenkins, but we can use historical stats to figure out how likely it is for a generic $4,500 tight end to score the required 13.5 points for cash games or 18.0 points for GPPs. Those likelihoods are 20.3% and 12.5%, respectively.
Tremblay: Seferian-Jenkins has been limited in practice this week and could miss another game. If he plays, though, the targets will be there for him. Vincent Jackson is likely out this week, leaving mainly just Mike Evans as an outside receiver, and he will command the bulk of the defense's attention in the passing game. So if Sefarian-Jenkins is able to play, and if he's close to 100%, that makes him a high-upside GPP option.
Garda: Like MT said, we’re not even sure he will play right now, so there’s that as well. If he does, I like him and as much as we don’t have a lot of history to go on, with Vincent Jackson hurt, Jameis Winston will have to occasionally go somewhere other than Mike Evans. I think he’s a cheap and interesting play this week but you have to watch the news wire to see what he does the next few days.
