For The Win: Week 13

Photo: Dale Zanine, USA Today Sports

Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season. 

Week 12 was a pretty good week, with winning records across the board and a 5-2 record for my Picks of the Week.  Can I keep it going though – that is always the question.  Five weeks left in the regular season so that means 80 more games to choose, so lots left this year.  So here we go for Week 13:

Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.

Bye week teams:  None. 

(Thursday) GREEN BAY (-3) at DETROIT
At some point, talent is going to kick in for the Packers and they are going to explode against somebody.  They have been stuck in neutral for the past several weeks, including Aaron Rodgers and the passing game.  Green Bay started the year 6-0, but then came the bye week and all the wind got sucked out of their sails.  Five games and four losses later, the Packers are 7-4 and behind Minnesota in the division.  They got the job done two weeks ago with a win over Minnesota, but two divisional losses of late have stung.  Here is where Green Bay avenges that loss to the Lions at home from three weeks ago.  I think Aaron Rodgers gears up and has a big game against the Lions and wins big, 34-20.  PICK: Packers

NEW YORK JETS (-2) “at” NEW YORK GIANTS
First off, “at” is in quotes since both teams play at MetLife stadium in the Meadowlands.   You might wonder what the difference is then – well, it is about who gets first crack at the tickets (Giants fans) and who has to dress in the visiting locker room (the Jets).  Aside from that, this “road” game for the Jets will have the feel of a home game on the field, but the crowd could be against them.  Odd disruptions aside, the Jets are the better team here and I think it comes down to one matchup – the Jets’ passing game against the Giants’ lack of a pass defense.  I looked back at the stats for the Giants this year, and every starting quarterback they have faced has racked up at least 200 yards and a touchdown – and those have been some pretty mediocre quarterbacks.  Good quarterbacks like Drew Brees had 500+ yards and seven touchdowns, while Kirk Cousins racked up 302 yards last week.  Six quarterbacks have 300 or more yards on the Giants this year.   Guess who is hot for the Jets?  Ryan Fitzpatrick.  That is going to be the difference in this one as the Jets win on the “road” by at least a touchdown.   PICK: Jets

ARIZONA (-5.5) at ST. LOUIS
Let’s not hold punches here – Arizona won last week, but it was an ugly win on the road against the 49ers.  Well, I think that was a letdown game for the Cardinals after two big wins over Seattle and Cincinnati.  A letdown was almost inevitable, but they still won in a bad effort.  Now they travel to St. Louis, another weak divisional foe and the Cardinals should win again – but can they cover?  Given that the Bengals just dismantled the Rams who have a messy situation at quarterback, I will take Arizona to score 27 or more and keep the Rams well under 14.  So yes, I am calling for a blowout win for the Cardinals, so laying fewer points than a touchdown is an easy call.  PICK: Cardinals

ATLANTA (+2) at TAMPA BAY
This is a rematch of two teams that I just cannot figure out.  When they met earlier this year in Atlanta, Tampa Bay won in overtime because Atlanta had four turnovers and could not execute well.  Now this game is going to be in Tampa, and I believe that the Falcons will be rejuvenated with Devonta Freeman back.  As long as they can avoid four turnovers this time, I think that they get the road win here – but I really do not trust either team.  I am happy to take Freeman and Julio Jones and points here, but that’s as far as I am going with this one.   (That’s a big hint that you will not see this game mentioned later.)  PICK: Falcons

SEATTLE (EVEN) at MINNESOTA
Minnesota and Seattle are both led more by their defenses, although Seattle is becoming more about their offense each week.  Stick with the defense for a moment, both teams are Top 10 against the pass and Seattle is also Top 10 against the run, so Adrian Peterson will be up against a tough matchup this week.  The question is, can Seattle run against the average run defense of the Vikings?  If so, Seattle should win this game.  I believe that Seattle’s offense is adept enough to adjust to Minnesota, while Seattle must load the box and stop Peterson and force Teddy Bridgewater to beat them.  I think Seattle wins those matchups and gets the win here.  PICK:  Seahawks 

CHICAGO (-7) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Here is another game I really do not like much, but I am taking Chicago here for several reasons.  First, they just beat Green Bay last Thursday night, so they both won and have more rest than the 49ers.  Next, they have more talent on offense, and could be getting healthier this week if Martellus Bennett can play. Even if he misses this game, Jay Cutler actually has been playing well of late and not taking unnecessary risks with the ball.  That’s a big deal here, as turnovers for San Francisco is about the only way I see the 49ers sticking in this contest.  Yes, Blaine Gabbert has played well of late, but Chicago is actually a Top 5 team against the pass and they shut down Aaron Rodgers last week.  As long as the Bears stick to the plan of solid passing to complement Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford, I like Chicago to get a win – I just hope they cover that big number.  PICK:  Bears 

TENNESSEE (-2) vs. JACKSONVILLE
At first I was not thrilled that Jacksonville was only getting 2 to 2.5 points in this game, then I started to peel back the stats for these two teams – and my choice for the victor changed.  Yes, I am taking the worst team in the NFL (record-wise) to win at home against Jacksonville this week.  Why?  Allen Hurns being banged up helps my case, but the Jaguars hold an interesting distinction.  While we like to beat on the Raiders for their lack of tight end defense, it is Jacksonville that has been the worst team over the past three weeks (and Bottom 10 for the season) against the tight ends.  Antonio Gates scored twice against the Jaguars last week and Delanie Walker had 96 yards for the Titans in Week 12.  Now, Marcus Mariota is still learning, but he did get three touchdowns last week against Oakland.  Neither team can run the ball, so it is going to be a pass-happy game that could get sloppy.  I like the matchup for Walker here and Julius Thomas for Jacksonville could also have a big game.  I see this as an ugly 27-24 type contest where anyone can win, so give me the home team with a matchup to exploit – and if Hurns is out, I like it even more.   PICK:  Titans 

HOUSTON (+3) at BUFFALO
The Texans defense is playing at an elite level, led by J.J. Watt.  Houston held the Saints to zero touchdowns in New Orleans, the first time that has happened for New Orleans under Sean Payton.  Now the Texans will visit Buffalo, and defense travels very well.  The question is, will DeAndre Hopkins return to fantasy relevance this week against the Bills.  I think he will as Buffalo will try and build on their big game from Sammy Watkins last week.  Houston has completely shut down the opposition from a run game standpoint, so it will all be on Tyrod Taylor.  I like Brian Hoyer this week to get the Texans a win and keep them in the AFC South race.  PICK:  Texans

BALTIMORE (+4) at MIAMI
Picking games between teams playing out the string is always fun.  Baltimore and Miami is about an even contest between one team that is a M*A*S*H unit (Baltimore) and one team that is playing revolving coaches (Miami).  I have no idea what version of the Dolphins will show up this week, but if Ryan Tannehill decides to throw a lot he could have a good game – but I am going to go with the Ravens getting points and coming off of their first win in a long while.  In general though – stay away from this contest.  PICK:   Ravens 

CINCINNATI (-9) at CLEVELAND
And I thought Baltimore found creative ways to lose games – leave it to the Browns to have a game-winning field goal attempt blocked and run back for the winning touchdown by the Ravens as time expired to secure the loss for Cleveland.  Now the Browns are without Josh McCown (again) and they are afraid to encourage their once-considered franchise quarterback by letting Johnny Manziel start.  So what do they do?  Austin Davis is starting for Cleveland this week.  Davis is a younger version of an NFL journeyman already, as he had two stints with the Rams, one with the Dolphins and now is a Cleveland Brown.  The Browns do like him, but they would rather Manziel to grow up and start being their quarterback for the future – but that is not happening this week.  Instead, the Bengals will continue to rack up wins in the AFC and try and get the #1 or #2 seed in the conference.  A win by Cincinnati and a loss by the Steelers gives the Bengals the division, which is a foregone conclusion.  The matchup to note this week is A.J. Green, who just had two touchdowns last week and now he faces the Browns who should be without Joe Haden, who has locked him down in the past.  I see Green having a big game as the Bengals win by double-digits.   PICK:  Bengals 

OAKLAND (+3) vs. KANSAS CITY
Oakland could just call it quits if they seriously look at their remaining schedule (Kansas City twice, at Denver, Green Bay, San Diego), but they will continue to fight and see what happens each week, just like they should.  They could have given up last week in Tennessee but they fought back to win late, and it is that fight that I like about Oakland.  They are a young team with lots of talent and a reasonable run defense as well, so I think that this could be a very interesting game this week against the Chiefs.  There are two big matchups to look at here – first, the Chiefs are terrible against wide receivers, so I like Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and even Seth Roberts who had a great game last week.  For Kansas City, not only did Jeremy Maclin have a big game last week, but Travis Kelce found the end zone, and we all know the story with Oakland not defending tight ends well this year.  I see this as an unexpectedly high scoring game where both quarterbacks get three touchdowns or more and this becomes an old school AFC game that plays out like a 37-34 game between two AFC West rivals.  Both kickers are solid too, but I see Sebastian Janikowski converting a kick late to win the game at home for the Raiders to get them to 6-6.  PICK:  Raiders 

DENVER (-4) at SAN DIEGO
Phillip Rivers had a big game last week against Jacksonville, but the defense he will face this week at home against Denver is much better, and that is going to be the difference here.  San Diego cannot run the ball very well at all, so asking Rivers to win them games has been their game plan, and that will not work against the Broncos.  San Diego can be picked apart on the ground or through the air, so I see a balanced offensive attack for the Broncos to get a solid win here in the AFC West as both Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson find the end zone along with Demaryius Thomas.  Broncos 27, Chargers 16.  PICK:  Broncos 

NEW ENGLAND (-9.5). vs PHILADELPHIA
Over a month ago I was very, very close to calling New England over Miami on a Thursday night as my Lock of the Year, and I am feeling similarly about this game this week for New England.  If Rob Gronkowski was healthy, I would lock this one up – but he is not, and this I am just going to take New England here and lay the big number. Why do I feel this way?  On paper, New England has the better matchups all over this contest.  New England should be favored by about 14 points, but they are only giving up 9.5 to the Eagles, a team in free fall at 4-7.  New England just lost for the first time all year, and they travel home to regroup.  Tom Brady is going to be mad, and so is Bill Belichick.  What do they do when they are mad?  They take it out on the next team.  Chip Kelly was supposed to be the next coaching darling of the NFL, so Belichick can stomp on Philadelphia and reaffirm that he is the best coach – which most people would agree even if they hate New England.  The Patriots may not have Gronkowski, but they can come after the Eagles in many ways and they have been solid against the run on defense.  Do you really like Mark Sanchez in Foxboro to score more than 17 points?  I don’t, so give me New England and a returning Danny Amendola to find the end zone at least three times and score at least 27 points and probably many more.  The Patriots will win big at home to win the AFC East again and stay ahead of Denver and Cincinnati for the top seed in the AFC.  New England 38, Philadelphia 13.   PICK:  Patriots  

CAROLINA (-7) at NEW ORLEANS
Carolina just dominated the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving, and New Orleans managed just six points at home against Houston on Sunday.  Once again, I think Carolina is getting no respect.  They are 11-0 last time I checked, and this is a divisional game that should be played in ideal conditions in a dome.  The Saints cannot defend the pass, and tight end Ryan Griffin just lit them up last week.   Greg Olsen could have a career day this coming Sunday, and I like the Panthers to roll all over the Saints and win handily, something like 34-17.  PICK:  Panthers 

PITTSBURGH (-7) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Is Ben Roethlisberger going to play?  If yes, then I like the Steelers to win this game going away.  If not, it is much more of a toss-up and I would take the Cotls and the points – but for now, I am going with Pittsburgh. They looked good against Seattle, at least on offense, and I think that can translate well against Indianapolis, who did not look that dominant against Tampa Bay at home last week.  I do not like Matt Hasselbeck out in the cold elements of western Pennsylvania on Sunday Night Football.  PICK:  Steelers 

(Monday)  WASHINGTON (-4) vs. DALLAS
Tony Romo comes in, gets hurt, and he goes out.  Rinse, repeat.  With no Romo, the Cowboys are a shell of a franchise that looks old from top to bottom except for Dez Bryant and Sean Lee, and Bryant cannot throw himself the ball.  Washington has looked good with DeSean Jackson back in the offense and Kirk Cousins is getting the job done while masking an iffy secondary.  Dallas will not be able to exploit any Washington defensive lapses with Matt Cassel under center.  Washington may not be much to write home about, but for now, they are at 5-6, in first place, and have five games left against teams with losing records.  Stranger thiings have happened, but Washington right now could be the favorite to win the NFC East this year.  Take Washington at home against an archrival on national television that they will be happy to beat on while the Cowboys are down, because Dallas is not often in this situation.  Washington by more than a touchdown.  PICK:  Washington

BEST BETS

Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.

* ONE STAR GAMES *  

• TENNESSEE (-2) vs. JACKSONVILLE
• HOUSTON (+3) at BUFFALO
• CINCINNATI (-9) at CLEVELAND
• OAKLAND (+3) vs. KANSAS CITY
• DENVER (-4) at SAN DIEGO
• (Monday)  WASHINGTON (-4) vs. DALLAS

• 6-POINT TEASER:  OAKLAND (+9) vs. KANSAS CITY (OVER 38)

• HOUSTON “FOR THE WIN” (+150) at BUFFALO
• BALTIMORE “FOR THE WIN” (+180) at MIAMI
• OAKLAND “FOR THE WIN” (+130) vs. KANSAS CITY

• 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (EVEN ODDS):

• ARIZONA (+0.5) at ST. LOUIS
• CINCINNATI (-3) at CLEVELAND
• CAROLINA (-1) at NEW ORLEANS    
• DENVER (+2) at SAN DIEGO

(This represents six bets, take any of the two  teams for six different combinations)

• “WONG TEASER SPECIAL”:  4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):

• OAKLAND (+9) vs. KANSAS CITY
• NEW YORK GIANTS (+8) vs. NEW YORK JETS (-2)
• ATLANTA (+8) at TAMPA BAY
• JACKSONVILLE (+8.5) vs. TENNESSEE

• “WONG TEASER SPECIAL” PART 2:  2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (EVEN ODDS):

• OAKLAND (+9) vs. KANSAS CITY
• NEW YORK GIANTS (+8) vs. NEW YORK JETS (-2)
• ATLANTA (+8) at TAMPA BAY
• JACKSONVILLE (+8.5) vs. TENNESSEE

 (This represents six bets, take any of the two  teams for six different combinations)

• 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (4.5-1 ODDS):

• ARIZONA (+0.5) at ST. LOUIS
• CINCINNATI (-3) at CLEVELAND
• CAROLINA (-1) at NEW ORLEANS    
• DENVER (+2) at SAN DIEGO
• HOUSTON (+9) at BUFFALO

• 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):

• ARIZONA (+0.5) at ST. LOUIS
• CINCINNATI (-3) at CLEVELAND
• CAROLINA (-1) at NEW ORLEANS    
• DENVER (+2) at SAN DIEGO
• HOUSTON (+9) at BUFFALO
• (Thursday) GREEN BAY (+3) at DETROIT  

• 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (10-1 ODDS):

• ARIZONA (+0.5) at ST. LOUIS
• CINCINNATI (-3) at CLEVELAND
• CAROLINA (-1) at NEW ORLEANS    
• DENVER (+2) at SAN DIEGO
• HOUSTON (+9) at BUFFALO
• (Thursday) GREEN BAY (+3) at DETROIT  
• NEW YORK JETS (+4) “at” NEW YORK GIANTS

• 8-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (15-1 ODDS):

• ARIZONA (+0.5) at ST. LOUIS
• CINCINNATI (-3) at CLEVELAND
• CAROLINA (-1) at NEW ORLEANS    
• DENVER (+2) at SAN DIEGO
• HOUSTON (+9) at BUFFALO
• (Thursday) GREEN BAY (+3) at DETROIT  
• NEW YORK JETS (+4) “at” NEW YORK GIANTS
• NEW ENGLAND (-3.5). vs PHILADELPHIA

• 9-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (22.5-1 ODDS):

• ARIZONA (+0.5) at ST. LOUIS
• CINCINNATI (-3) at CLEVELAND
• CAROLINA (-1) at NEW ORLEANS    
• DENVER (+2) at SAN DIEGO
• HOUSTON (+9) at BUFFALO
• (Thursday) GREEN BAY (+3) at DETROIT  
• NEW YORK JETS (+4) “at” NEW YORK GIANTS
• NEW ENGLAND (-3.5). vs PHILADELPHIA
• TENNESSEE (+4) vs. JACKSONVILLE

** TWO STAR GAMES **

• (Thursday) GREEN BAY (-3) at DETROIT  
• NEW YORK JETS (-2) “at” NEW YORK GIANTS
• ARIZONA (-5.5) at ST. LOUIS
• CAROLINA (-7) at NEW ORLEANS     
• 6-POINT TEASER:  OAKLAND (OVER 38) vs. KANSAS CITY (+9.5)

• 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):

• ARIZONA (+0.5) at ST. LOUIS
• CINCINNATI (-3) at CLEVELAND
• CAROLINA (-1) at NEW ORLEANS    
• DENVER (+2) at SAN DIEGO

*** THREE STAR GAMES ***

• OAKLAND vs. KANSAS CITY (OVER 44)

• 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (1.65-1 ODDS):

• ARIZONA (+0.5) at ST. LOUIS
• CINCINNATI (-3) at CLEVELAND
• CAROLINA (-1) at NEW ORLEANS