Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Adrian Peterson’s understudy, get him now before Peterson pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with New England off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, New England and Tennessee were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 5 of the 2015 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Todd Gurley, RB, Rams ($450): Yes, he’s worth that much. Grab him and have a Top 20 running back the rest of the way.
- Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos ($202): Hillman deserves to be the starter for Denver, and I think it is just a matter of time. We saw how valuable C.J. Anderson was in that role last year, and I think Hillman gets it this season.
- Travis Benjamin, WR, Browns ($167): Cleveland has not been a go-to fantasy option for years, and all the Browns get a negative bias as a result. That is too bad, but it does offer an opportunity if you want to grab Benjamin who has had 10 targets two weeks in a row. Once thought of as a kick returner and deep ball specialist only, Benjamin has 10 catches for over 120 yards and a score the past two games. He is worth a WR3 spot on your team, especially in good matchups.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Duke Johnson Jr, RB, Browns ($145): Over 100 yards rushing and receiving for Cleveland plus a touchdown. The Browns need playmakers, and Johnson is one of them.
- Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers ($137, $173 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): : San Diego lost Malcom Floyd and Stevie Johnson in Week 4 during the game, so San Diego might be needing receivers. Great time for a veteran tight end to get back to action after serving a four game suspension. Gates could be targeted early and often as soon as this week against the Steelers.
- Tavon Austin, WR, Rams ($130): Austin is a triple threat as a receiver, rusher and kick returner for the Rams. He had over 80 yards and two scores against Arizona in Week 4, and he is capable of doing that any given week.
- C.J. Spiller, RB, Saints ($127): Nearly all of his production came on that one huge pass catch in overtime, but I saw enough there to see the speed is back, he can get open and that Brees trusts him. I would roster him just based on that one play for sure.
- Charles Clay, TE, Bills ($125, $183 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Robbed of a touchdown in Week 4 by a bad (and unrelated) penalty by the offensive line, Clay is getting more and more involved in the passing game. Tyrod Taylor is looking at him often, and Clay has performed as a TE1 in the past. He gets a good matchup against the Titans this week.
- Alex Smith, QB, Chiefs ($121): Not much on the waiver wire at quarterback right now, but here is a guy who is locked in as a starter and can put up 300+ yards and scramble some as well. The touchdowns are the problem, sure, but he is a capable QB2.
- David Johnson, RB, Cardinals ($111): Andre Ellington is back soon (possibly this week) and Chris Johnson is the starter, but David Johnson is probably the back with the highest upside right now in Arizona. The only question is if he can get more opportunity, as I have seen him do quite well on limited touches already.
- Coby Fleener, TE, Colts ($107, $143 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): As long as Dwayne Allen is out, Fleener will see plenty of targets, especially if Andrew Luck does not look to throw it deep as often with a shoulder issue. On a short week for the Colts, Fleener looks like a TE1 for Week 5.
- Michael Crabtree, WR, Raiders ($105): While Amari Cooper grabs the attention, Crabtree grabs the ball and produces. His numbers are comparable to Cooper’s and he is offered at a much bigger discount. Snap up another WR3 off the waiver wire here.
- Cole Beasley, WR, Cowboys ($101): No Lance Dunbar? No problem. Beasley is about to see a lot more targets as the new short distance receiving option for Dallas starting this week.
- Ted Ginn Jr, WR, Panthers ($101): Carolina’s former deep threat is now getting more chances from Cam Newton. Ginn has matured as a player and receiver and runs better routes. His two scores in Week 4 speak to that. He is worth a bench spot on your team.
- Maxx Williams, TE, Ravens ($101, $135 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Steve Smith has a broken bone in his back and Baltimore has nearly no one else to run routes as a receiver. I like Williams as a sneaky TE1 this week against Cleveland.
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Leonard Hankerson, WR, Falcons ($99): I think he has passed Roddy White on the depth chart for Atlanta. That’s significant. While all the love is going to Devonta Freeman right now, do not forget the Atlanta passing game. Hankerson could be a great value right now.
- Gary Barnidge, TE, Browns ($97, $119 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): : I thought he was just a lucky flash in the pan against Oakland, but after a great sideline catch in Week 4, Barnidge looks like a solid tight end. I would not put him in the TE1 tier yet at all, but he is a solid bye week fill-in for sure.
- Willie Snead, WR, Saints ($77): This guy who sounds like he should be in “Pan” has performed for Drew Brees, racking up targets (22), catches (16) and yards (240 and a touchdown). Did I mention New Orleans plays the Eagles next?
- Kamar Aiken, WR, Ravens ($71): Someone has to catch a pass at wide receiver for Baltimore, right? Steve Smith might give it a go this week, but Aiken is the WR2 and offers upside.
- Richard Rodgers, TE, Packers ($67, $83 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): : On most any other team, Rodgers would not have much fantasy value – but Green Bay is not an ordinary team. Aaron Rodgers likes to target his big namesake over the middle, and Richard scored again in Week 4. You can do much worse for a TE2 on your roster.
- Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings ($55): The former stud wide receiver at Maryland went undrafted but Minnesota took a chance on him in the preseason and he performed well. Week 4 was his big debut and he did not disappoint with good catches and a 6-87 line on 10 targets. I love grabbing him now with Minnesota on a bye.
- Dontrelle Inman, WR, Chargers ($55): Kind of a sleeper, but here me out. Both Malcom Floyd and Stevie Johnson missed time in Week 4 due to injury, and both San Diego tight ends have a concern (rust and age for Antonio Gates, concussions for Ladarius Green). Inman has performed well before with Phillip Rivers, and he might be on that stage again Monday.
- Jamison Crowder, WR, Redskins ($45): Washington looks like they might have a decent passing game with Kirk Cousins, and rookie Jamison Crowder is getting a lot of targets (18 in the past two weeks). The offense may get crowded if DeSean Jackson returns soon, but Jordan Reed is ailing again, so there could be room for Crowder. Speculative add but good upside here.
- Garrett Graham, TE, Texans ($33, $45 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): A pure hunch play, but Graham is getting a lot of targets on a team that is throwing a ton and that just lost two guys at receiver to injury (Cecil Shorts, Nate Washington). Graham could see a ton of looks against Indianapolis on Thursday.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
