RB2 By Committee: Update

Jeff Pasquino's RB2 By Committee: Update Jeff Pasquino Published 08/18/2014

 A few weeks ago, I first wrote the RB2BC for standard leagues article for this season - but as often happens, our members wanted more.  With both of the recommended running backs gaining in the ADP (I will refrain from saying I was directly responsible for this), the emails and tweets have rolled in for more advice with Joique Bell getting drafted earlier than expected.   So what else can I do but write an article?  This is my attempt to provide a better guide for you on your Draft Day.  I will not re-do the entire article here, as you can certainly go back and read the methods for finding the committee pairs in the original article.  Today I am only going to focus on what you want - the results.

So Joique Bell is now more expensive - does that change the plan?  We will get to that, but first we have to talk about the good news vs. the bad news here.  Whenever running backs go up in ADP, another one falls - and this year, there are 25-30 reasonable guys to target.  That makes RB2BC a solid plan, no matter who the backs turn out to be.  

Let's revisit where we are today, starting with the ADP of running backs 20-40:

ADPPlayerADPPlayer
RB20 Frank Gore RB31 Pierre Thomas
RB21 Rashad Jennings RB32 Lamar Miller
RB22 Trent Richardson RB33 Maurice Jones-Drew
RB23 Bishop Sankey RB34 Darren Sproles
RB24 Shane Vereen RB35 Fred Jackson
RB25 Chris Johnson RB36 Danny Woodhead
RB26 Ben Tate RB37 Bernard Pierce
RB27 Ray Rice RB38 Knowshon Moreno
RB28 Joique Bell RB39 Terrance West
RB29 Stevan Ridley RB40 DeAngelo Williams
RB30 Steven Jackson    

Table 1: Running Backs RB20-RB40 Based on ADP

But wait a minute - why did I go to RB20?  The reason now is to cover you, in case the ADP get shuffled again.  Your committee will certainly be better if you can land one or two backs with ADPs of 20-24, but that is a best case scenario.  Most likely you will have to grab two backs after RB24, but if any of the backs start to shuffle in the ADP list, you will now have a handy dandy chart (coming down below) to use as a reference.

So now we have 21 guys to pair up and see how they do. That makes 210 potential committees, so there had better be a decent one (or several, we hope) out of all of those couplets. Just like before, I am going to use their weekly projected fantasy points to combine all 210 pairs to figure out which are the best ones.   Table 2 contains the results for the top pairs:

RankRunning Back 1Running Back 2ValueADP1ADP2
1 Frank Gore Joique Bell 179.3 20 28
2 Rashad Jennings Joique Bell 176.6 21 28
3 Joique Bell Lamar Miller 172.2 28 32
4 Frank Gore Ray Rice 171.9 20 27
5 Rashad Jennings Chris Johnson 171.8 21 25
6 Ray Rice Joique Bell 170.7 27 28
7 Rashad Jennings Bishop Sankey 170.2 21 23
8 Chris Johnson Joique Bell 170.2 25 28
9 Rashad Jennings Shane Vereen 169.6 21 24
10 Rashad Jennings Lamar Miller 169.1 21 32
11 Frank Gore Chris Johnson 168.7 20 25
12 Rashad Jennings Stevan Ridley 168.6 21 29
13 Rashad Jennings Ben Tate 168.0 21 26
14 Frank Gore Rashad Jennings 167.8 20 21
15 Trent Richardson Joique Bell 167.5 22 28
16 Frank Gore Lamar Miller 167.4 20 32
17 Shane Vereen Joique Bell 167.3 24 28
18 Ray Rice Lamar Miller 167.1 27 32
19 Ben Tate Joique Bell 167.1 26 28
20 Rashad Jennings Ray Rice 166.6 21 27
21 Frank Gore Bishop Sankey 166.1 20 23
22 Joique Bell Stevan Ridley 166.0 28 29
23 Shane Vereen Ray Rice 165.9 24 27
24 Frank Gore Trent Richardson 165.0 20 22
25 Bishop Sankey Chris Johnson 165.0 23 25
26 Joique Bell Maurice Jones-Drew 164.8 28 33
27 Frank Gore Shane Vereen 164.6 20 24
28 Ray Rice Stevan Ridley 164.3 27 29
29 Rashad Jennings Maurice Jones-Drew 164.1 21 33
30 Rashad Jennings Trent Richardson 163.9 21 22
31 Frank Gore Stevan Ridley 163.3 20 29
32 Rashad Jennings Fred Jackson 162.8 21 35
33 Ben Tate Ray Rice 162.7 26 27
34 Bishop Sankey Ray Rice 162.7 23 27
35 Joique Bell DeAngelo Williams 162.6 28 40
36 Chris Johnson Lamar Miller 162.6 25 32
37 Frank Gore Ben Tate 162.4 20 26
38 Frank Gore Maurice Jones-Drew 162.3 20 33
39 Trent Richardson Ray Rice 161.6 22 27
40 Rashad Jennings Steven Jackson 161.4 21 30
41 Bishop Sankey Joique Bell 161.4 23 28
42 Rashad Jennings Pierre Thomas 161.3 21 31
43 Joique Bell Danny Woodhead 160.9 28 36
44 Joique Bell Pierre Thomas 160.8 28 31
45 Chris Johnson Ben Tate 160.2 25 26
46 Joique Bell Bernard Pierce 160.1 28 37
47 Rashad Jennings DeAngelo Williams 160.0 21 40
48 Joique Bell Darren Sproles 160.0 28 34
49 Trent Richardson Chris Johnson 159.9 22 25
50 Ray Rice Maurice Jones-Drew 159.5 27 33
51 Shane Vereen Chris Johnson 159.5 24 25
52 Ray Rice Fred Jackson 159.4 27 35
53 Rashad Jennings Terrance West 159.3 21 39
54 Bishop Sankey Lamar Miller 158.6 23 32
55 Joique Bell Terrance West 158.4 28 39
56 Chris Johnson Stevan Ridley 158.3 25 29
57 Rashad Jennings Danny Woodhead 158.3 21 36
58 Rashad Jennings Knowshon Moreno 158.1 21 38
59 Joique Bell Knowshon Moreno 158.1 28 38
60 Rashad Jennings Bernard Pierce 157.8 21 37
61 Joique Bell Fred Jackson 157.6 28 35
62 Frank Gore Pierre Thomas 157.4 20 31
63 Rashad Jennings Darren Sproles 157.1 21 34
64 Frank Gore DeAngelo Williams 156.9 20 40
65 Ray Rice Steven Jackson 156.8 27 30
66 Ben Tate Lamar Miller 156.8 26 32
67 Bishop Sankey Shane Vereen 156.7 23 24
68 Joique Bell Steven Jackson 156.4 28 30
69 Chris Johnson DeAngelo Williams 155.9 25 40
70 Chris Johnson Maurice Jones-Drew 155.8 25 33
71 Chris Johnson Steven Jackson 155.7 25 30
72 Ray Rice Pierre Thomas 155.4 27 31
73 Chris Johnson Ray Rice 155.3 25 27
74 Bishop Sankey Stevan Ridley 155.2 23 29
75 Bishop Sankey Ben Tate 154.7 23 26
76 Chris Johnson Fred Jackson 154.5 25 35
77 Frank Gore Fred Jackson 154.2 20 35
78 Frank Gore Steven Jackson 153.8 20 30
79 Trent Richardson Bishop Sankey 153.8 22 23
80 Ray Rice DeAngelo Williams 153.5 27 40
81 Joique Bell n/a 153.3 28 n/a

Table 2: PPR Running Back #2 Committee Pairs

As we can see from Table 2, we have some very good pairs to select from for RB2BC. In fact, I think that this is the best year ever to attempt RB2BC. Please keep in mind that the top of the chart is going to be skewed a little high this time around as we are still using RB20-24 rather than starting with RB25.  Still, there are 80 pairs here that are good for over 153.5 points, plus one player on his own (Joique Bell).  That means if you get the right two backs, you should be able to score at least 154 points from your RB2BC for this season.  But which ones?

I made something new this year, which is a RB2BC Draft Matrix chart.  Now, it might be a little tricky to read, so let me explain after I show you the chart:

2nd pickFirst Pick
RB20RB21RB22RB23RB24RB25RB26RB27RB28RB29RB30
RB20 Frank Gore                      
RB21 Rashad Jennings 4                    
RB22 Trent Richardson 7 10                  
RB23 Bishop Sankey 6 3 4                
RB24 Shane Vereen 8 4   5              
RB25 Chris Johnson 3 2 3 1 3            
RB26 Ben Tate 10 7 6 7 5 3          
RB27 Ray Rice 2 8 2 2 2 8 2        
RB28 Joique Bell 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1      
RB29 Stevan Ridley 9 6   6   4   3 2    
RB30 Steven Jackson 15 12       7   6 12    
RB31 Pierre Thomas 12 13   9   10   7 6    
RB32 Lamar Miller 5 5 5 4 4 2 3 2 1 1  
RB33 Maurice Jones-Drew 11 9   8   6 4 4 3    
RB34 Darren Sproles 17 19       11   9 8    
RB35 Fred Jackson 14 11       8   5 11    
RB36 Danny Woodhead 18 16       9   10 5    
RB37 Bernard Pierce 20 18             7    
RB38 Knowshon Moreno 19 17             10    
RB39 Terrance West 16 15       12     9    
RB40 DeAngelo Williams 13 14   10   5   8 4    
                         
        160 155 150            

Table 3: Running Back #2 Committee Draft Matrix

I know that there are pretty colors and all, but I completely understand if you are confused by Table 3.  Let's talk about the colors first.  Yellow squares are "unlikely pairs", as they use two backs at RB20-24, so that's counter of the RB2BC plan - but if you can them, go for it!  Second, the pairs of RB25 - RB40 backs are highlighted in blue (pairs projected to score 160 or more points), green (155-160) or purple (150-155).  

Now remember that you are targeting a running back to start your pair.  I would still go after Joique Bell (RB28) if you can get him in Round 5, but if not, the matrix is going to help you quite a bit.  First, look on the left side of Table 3 - that is the list of running backs in ADP order (RB20 - RB40).  Naturally, you are targeting a player in the RB20 to RB30 range, so after you get one of those guys, go to the top of the chart and find the column that matches this player.  The columns are numbered in the "best pair" order to give you the name of the second back you want to get.   

Let's do an example.  You get Joique Bell, RB28 in Round 5.  You want to get the best player to pair with him, so the RB24 column tells you that the best five pairs, in order, are Lamar Miller, Stevan Ridley, Maurice Jones-Drew, DeAngelo Williams and Danny Woodhead.  Ideally you get Ridley or Miller to pair with Joique Bell.  Another example is that you get sniped on Bell and you have Ray Rice as your second back.  Which backs go best with him?  Rice is RB27, and moving to that column the Top 4 targets are Joique Bell (gone), Lamar Miller, Stevan Ridley, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Jackson.  Note that the color changed from blue for the first three pairs to green, which highlights that the first three duos are projected to give you 160 or more points, while the green pairs are projected to be just 155-160.  Clearly you want blue over green, and green over purple.

I hope this helps everyone on Draft Day.  Good luck this season.

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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