As part of the new slate of content at Footballguys this offseason, I’ll be reviewing the year in fantasy football for every one of the 32 NFL franchises to set up the storylines to watch in 2014. We’ll start with the AFC East and the Buffalo Bills.
Did You Know?
- The Bills ran the third-most plays from scrimmage in the league, but were #27th in Time of Possession
- The Bills led the league in fumbles with 32, but were fortunate enough to lose only 12 of them.
- The Bills were the only team in the NFL without a 60+ yard passing play, but they had nine passing plays that went for at least 40 yards.
- The Bills averaged 2.3 more rush attempts a game than any other team in the NFL.
- The Bills had a tight end finish in the top 13 in both yards and receptions in 2013.
Overview
As you might expect, a team with a rookie head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback didn’t exactly light the NFL on fire. What they did do is establish the #2 running game in the league, including the most rush attempts, which is especially impressive considering that they were a losing team. Only the Eagles were more productive on the ground.
The Bills also ran the third-most plays in the league, behind only the Broncos and Patriots. This, despite averaging only 28:43 per game in time of possession. The tempo installed by Doug Marrone and Nathaniel Hackett did result in many more attempts for running backs, and less-than-barebones passing game with 32.6 attempts per game, considerably more than their run-heavy peers Seattle (26.3), San Francisco (26.1), and the New York Jets (30.0).
That the Bills offense remained viable in the first year of a new system, with multiple quarterback injuries and no real experience at the position, is one of the accomplishments of the 2013 NFL season that does not enough recognition from the masses. Let’s take a closer look at how they did it.
Quarterback
First-round pick EJ Manuel was thrust into the starting job after Kevin Kolb suffered a preseason concussion that may end up being the last time we see him on a football field. Manuel was out with a knee scope himself in the preseason, but he was deemed ready for the season opener. Manuel actually started out the season as a much better passer than anyone expected, with an efficient two-touchdown opener vs. New England and a last-second game-winning drive vs. Carolina (yes, that Carolina). The Jets and Ravens slowed him down, and then he got vs. the Browns in a Thursday night game that also saw Brian Hoyer’s season come to an abrupt end. Manuel missed four games with a knee injury, and had some of his most miserable performances of the season after he returned, before missing the last two games with yet another knee injury.
Thad Lewis was surprisingly tough and serviceable in Manuel’s place, and even undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel - who almost started Week 1 after Manuel’s preseason knee scope - was viable against a tough Chiefs defense.
Despite the early success, the season was mostly a disappointment for Manuel, who was unnatural and uncomfortable as a runner, limiting his fantasy upside. He also functioned without a dedicated quarterbacks coach (which the Bills rectified by adding former Lions QB coach Todd Downing). He’ll need to be less tentative as a runner, especially on designed read option plays, and Manuel will also have to ratchet up his deep accuracy in order to harness the potential of youngsters like Marquise Goodwin, TJ Graham, and Robert Woods in the deep passing game. It is possible that Manuel takes a step forward, especially with the team’s likely emphasis on improving the passing game this offseason. He will still be only a late-round flier in deep leagues, but Manuel could easily become a hot waiver wire pickup early in the season.
Running Back
If it wasn’t for Adrian Peterson, we would have all been going ga-ga over CJ Spiller. With proclamations from the team that he would be fed the ball until he “throws up”, Spiller had a strong first-round ADP. He failed to deliver because of a high ankle sprain suffered in Week 4 that plagued him for the entire season - limiting his effectiveness and ability to stay in the game for an extended series of plays.
The good news for Spiller is that when he had a week of rest before a game, he was able to put up 150+ total yards. Unless you assume he will get hurt and struggle with an injury for most of the season once again this year, Spilller looks like a good target outside of the first round in 2014 fantasy drafts.
Meanwhile, Fred Jackson swooped in to save the day with Spiller hobbled, with ten total scores and well over 1,000 total yards, all the while destroying assumptions about 32-year-old running backs. Jackson himself suffered a good number of nicks and bruises, and even looked like he was out for the year after one cart off that didn’t even his afternoon. His combination of a strong goal-line presence and good hands out of the backfield on a run-heavy team made him a solid RB2 in PPR leagues. He is under contract for about 2.5 million dollars for 2014, and his leadership and performance in 2013 means he’ll likely be back. Expect the Bills to remain run-heavy and running-back centric in their offensive game plan, although with some improvement, that run success should set up more shots downfield and otherwise catch the defense going downhill when they shouldn’t be.
Wide Receiver
Stevie Johnson was an afterthought in a lot of drafts because of an injury-riddled offseason and the pains of adjusting to a rookie quarterback. He was actually on pace for career highs across the board after three games, but injuries began to pile up for the 27-year-old receiver, and he was mostly a non-factor in the second half of the season. To be fair, he lost his mother late in the year and he also played in one of the bottom ten pass offenses in the league, so assuming he isn’t cut to avoid the payment of a 1.75 million roster bonus (the Bills would experience negligible cap savings, but the possibility has been floated by beat writers), Johnson could be actually be a decent late-round sleeper on the bounce-back year theory.
Second-round pick Robert Woods and third-round pick Marquise Goodwin both showed the ability to get open deep and make big plays, but they also missed time with injuries and did not have any stretches of sustained fantasy relevance. Goodwin displayed the deep speed to be a Mike Wallace-esque deep threat who can put up 1,000 yards on 50 catches, and Woods was able to create separation at will when he was on. Both will figure heavily into the 2014 passing game, along with third-year speedster TJ Graham, although the already small passing game pie might be split into too many pieces to make any of them tasty for fantasy leagues.
Tight End
Scott Chandler’s competent but otherwise underwhelming game was a decent stopgap. To his credit, he was returning from a December 2012 ACL tear, and Chandler played in all 16 games. He caught at least two balls in every game, and finished with 53 receptions for 655 yards, good enough to finish in the top 13 in both categories. He is a free agent who will 29 when the 2014 season begins, so look for Chandler to possibly walk, opening up a bigger role for wide receiver turned tight end Chris Gragg. Gragg is one of the most athletic tight ends in the league, and he saw the field a little more in the second half of the season. The Bills offense was a decent situation for a tight end despite the bottom-end passing game, so Gragg could be a name to monitor in deep and TE premium leagues in 2014.
Offseason To-Do List
- Refinement of EJ Manuel’s game (especially deep accuracy) via work with new QB coach Todd Downing
- Marquise Goodwin learning the route tree
- Sign a tight end and create plays for Chris Gragg’s tweener skillset
On the Way Up
- EJ Manuel
- CJ Spiller
- Robert Woods
- Marquise Goodwin
- Chris Gragg
On the Way Down
- Fred Jackson
- Stevie Johnson
- Scott Chandler (Free Agent)