Running Down a Dream
The days of Breece Hall as a top-five lock feel like ancient history. In reality, though, it was just last year that he was mentioned in the same breath as Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey as the top options at running back.
The decline in his stock is a byproduct of his 13.3 Half-PPR points per game and RB17 finish in 2024.
RELATED: See all of our 2025 Player Spotlights here.
Getting the right read on Hall could end up being one of the more critical tasks for fantasy managers entering draft season. On one hand, we've seen the talent. You don't just stumble into RB1 status by accident. If this is the year he puts it together, he'll be a massive value. It looks like he's made it through the trade rumors, at least for the time being.
Inversely, though, why hasn't he lived up to the billing? Is the breakout still on track, or have we missed the window?
The Iowa State product – and his fantasy managers – are running down that dream.
The History
Breece Hall's Career Overview
| Season | Games Played | Expected Points Added per Attempt | Rushing success rate | Targets Per Game | Expected Points Added Per Target | Half-PPR PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 7 | +0.13 | 40% | 4.4 | -0.04 | 15.1 |
| 2023 | 17 | -0.16 | 33.2% | 5.6 | +0.01 | 14.9 |
| 2024 | 16 | -0.16 | 34.4% | 4.8 | -0.11 | 13.3 |
One of the more encouraging aspects of Hall's profile is that he's already put a top-five half-PPR finish between him and the knee injury he suffered as a rookie. The 2023 run was interesting statistically.
On 223 carries, Hall was more effective on a per carry basis than expected. His +0.7 rushing yards over expectation per carry tied for the fifth-highest mark among qualified running backs. Still, a 33.2 percent success rate and -0.16 expected points added per carry would tell you the fantasy production was largely buoyed by receiving volume and pass-happy game scripts.
He averaged 13.1 rushing attempts per game, 23rd among qualifying running backs. His 5.6 targets and 4.5 receptions per game, though, were both the second most. The receiving volume was efficient, too. Hall's +0.01 EPA/target was the seventh-best total among running backs in 2023.
Anytime volume and efficiency correlate positively, production is virtually guaranteed to follow. His 14.9 Half-PPR PPG and RB4 finish were a prime indication.
In 2024, he was still an explosive player, even though the numbers didn't correlate as they had in previous years.
Hall finished with an explosive run rate — runs in the top 10 percentile of yards gained — of 8.1 percent on 223 carries in 2023. That was 22nd in the NFL. That rate jumped to 10.5 percent on 209 carries in 2024, good for eighth among RBs with at least 150 carries.
Competition is a concern with Hall. Braelon Allen showed some juice as a rookie and might see an increased role in his second season. It is worth mentioning, though, that Allen averaged just 3.5 carries per game over the team's final four games in 2024. His EPA/attempt was -0.2.
Hall handled 64.6 percent of the snaps out of New York's backfield and 23 of the team's 42 red zone rushing attempts. For reference, the Jets ran the ball in the red zone less than any other team in the NFL. Allen handled 11 of those attempts.
Tanner Engstrand, whom we'll get to in more depth shortly, could very well have grander plans for the former fourth-round pick. If his previous situation is any indication, there's room for multiple backs in this offense.
Rushing volume hasn't been a prerequisite to Hall's fantasy output. If the Jets run the ball more effectively under new leadership next season, the resume would indicate Hall has a meaningful role to play in that endeavor.
The system Engstrand projects to implement has the feel of one Hall could excel in.
The New System
Detroit Lions and Play-Action Production
| Season | Play-Action Passing Attempts | Play-Action Yards Per Game | Expected Points Added Per Play | RB Targets on Play-Action | RB Receiving Yardage on Play-Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 167 | 84.8 | +0.35 | 31 | 224 |
| 2023 | 155 | 78.8 | +0.25 | 25 | 129 |
| 2024 | 214 | 114.8 | +0.27 | 50 | 460 |
After landing the Jets' head coaching job this offseason, former Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn moved quickly to hire his former colleague, Tanner Engstrand, as his offensive coordinator and play caller.
Enstrand served as the passing game coordinator for the Lions from 2022 to 2024. While Ben Johnson ran the show, Engstrand helped manage an offense that targeted RBs on 21 percent of dropbacks last season. That was tied for the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.
Furthermore, Detroit's rushing attack was among the most potent in the NFL by most metrics. On 534 rushing attempts – 47.8 percent of the team's offensive snaps – the Lions averaged 146.4 rushing yards per game and +0.04 expected points added per attempt. They were also stuffed on 14.6 percent of those attempts and deemed successful on 44.9 percent.
Play action was also a significant piece of what the Lions did on offense. Their 214 play-action passing attempts paced in the NFL. They posted 114.8 passing yards per game on play-action dropbacks with +0.27 EPA/pass.
So, how does this benefit Hall?
In 2024, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery ran a combined 159 routes on play-action dropbacks. They were targeted on 28.9 percent and caught all but three of those passes. In terms of the value these looks brought to the offense, Montgomery's +0.51 EPA/target was third-best in the NFL, while Gibbs' +0.30 was 11th.
Hall, meanwhile, wasn't in an offense as potent as the Lions. I think it would be fair to say the Jets were significantly worse than the Lions. On play-action drop-backs, though, Hall was one of the more utilized receiving backs in the NFL. He ran 79 play-action routes last season. He was targeted on 19, posting 5.5 receiving yards per game and +0.06 EPA/target.
The new system could put Hall in a position to find more success in similar opportunities. Justin Fields at quarterback is a variable, though. He might play the largest role in whether or not Hall finally lives up to the hype.
The Fields Dilemma
When Fields starts for a team, his rushing output usually gives him a top-12 positional floor. While that's great news for him and his fantasy prospects in 2025, the outlook for his running backs is clouded. How have running backs fared with Fields under center, though?