Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 8: New York Jets

The following feature is a free preview of our content. If you like it, click here to sign up for access to our Footballguys Subscription, and you'll get all of our content. We're so confident you'll love it that we offer an industry-leading 30-day Money-Back Guarantee, ensuring zero risk.

RELATED: See More Like This here.

An Overview of the New York Jets Defense

It was a bad time to be a Jets fan in 2024. From their 5-12 record, to the holdout by Haason Reddick, the Aaron Rodgers saga, the mid-season firing of the head coach, and the subsequent canning of the coaching staff, this team was a dumpster fire. Despite all of the distractions and self-inflicted wounds, the defense somehow managed decent statistics in some areas. They were middle of the pack versus the run, fifth against the pass, and had a respectable 43 sacks. We could look deeper into the numbers, but the fact is, they are irrelevant.

So much has changed with this team, particularly the defense, that we have to throw out everything that happened in 2024. The head coach and defensive coordinator are different, and seven players who were on the field for over 400 snaps are no longer with the team. While the organization retained a solid nucleus of talent, New York's depth chart has been devastated.

The team signed several free agents, including some with starting experience. Unfortunately, none of them are high-profile difference makers. They used four draft picks on the defensive side as well, with the highest one coming in round three. Not to mention that the scouting community was widely unimpressed with the players they picked.  

The duty falls to new coordinator Steve Wilks to whip this crew into an NFL defense. Wilks has a good track record. In 2023, he led a San Francisco unit that tied for the most interceptions, ranked third in scoring, surrendered fewer than 90 yards per game on the ground, and was fifth versus the pass. The stats tell us he is capable, but we don't know yet if Wilks is a magician. He will have to be for this unit to be better than average.

New York Jets Defensive Linemen

The defensive line has an excellent foundation, including former first-round picks Quinnen Williams, Jermaine Johnson, and Will McDonald IV. New York brought in Derrick Nnadi from Kansas City to replace Javon Kinlaw and complete the starting lineup. Holdover Micheal Clemons should land the role of third man on the edge, while career backups Jay Tufele and Byron Cowart were signed to contend for relief snaps on the inside.

This group packs plenty of fantasy potential. Johnson played part-time as a rookie and subsequently posted modest numbers of 18-11-2. He came on with a solid second season, totaling 36-19-7 with 7 batted passes and 3 turnovers. 2024 was supposed to be his breakout season. Unfortunately, Johnson didn't make it past week two when he suffered a torn ACL. The injury happened early in the season, and his recovery has gone well enough that he is expected to be ready for week one.

One issue that kept Johnson's numbers down a bit in his second year was the extensive rotation used by the previous regime along the front. Wilks does not have a history of such an approach. When he was DC for the 49ers in 2023, Nick Bosa logged 821 snaps while Chase Young was on pace for more than 660 in his eleven games. Johnson should be a great fit in the attacking scheme. Providing he is fully recovered, he could be one of this year's breakout players.

New Your picked Will McDonald IV in the first round in 2023. Thus far, his career has followed a similar trajectory to that of Johnson. McDonald had a limited role as a rookie, totaling 9-5-3 with a forced fumble. He was expected to be a third-down specialist in 2024 until the injury to Johnson and the protracted holdout by Haason Reddick pushed him up the depth chart.

McDonald made a huge impact in his first start, piling up 4-0-3 with a forced fumble against the Titans. Over his first six games in that role, he was 12-2-8 with 2 turnovers and a swatted pass. Then someone turned off the switch. Over the final ten games, McDonald totaled 6-7-2 and recovered 1 fumble. It's not hard to figure out what happened. At 236 pounds, he was not accustomed to playing on early downs. Between the extra snaps and the wear and tear of battling 300-pound linemen on early downs, McDonald was worn down quickly. Consequently, the only productive game he had after week seven came in week thirteen when he went 2-0-2 after the bye allowed him to rest up.

McDonald may hold the title of starter, but don't be surprised if Micheal Clemons sees most of the early down action. He is much bigger at 263 pounds and stands up better as a point of attack defender. Clemons may never reach double-digit sacks in a season, but he can contribute in that area, as shown by the four and a half he recorded a year ago.

The Jets have a few other names on the depth chart at edge. Someone else may emerge in a rotational role, but beyond Johnson, there is no one for IDP managers to get excited about, and even Johnson comes with some risk.

In Quinnen Williams, the Jets have one of the elite defensive tackles in both NFL and fantasy terms. Williams is an active and mobile big man who excels at getting off blocks to make plays in tight spaces. He also has enough range and quickness to make plays outside the tackle box. Most guys who are north of 300 pounds rely heavily on the bull rush in passing situations. Williams can bullrush with the best of them, but he's not a one-trick pony.

On the field, Williams is a cornerstone of the Jets' defense. In the box scores, he is an elite-tier DT1. Williams commands double teams on virtually every snap, yet still manages to be highly productive on the stat sheets. If not for a hamstring injury that plagued him over the final six games last year, he would be on a streak of five seasons with at least 51 combined tackles, 5 sacks, and 3 batted passes. Williams is a perennial top-ten tackle and no stranger to the top five. At 27 years old, he still has plenty of good football in his future.   

Derrick Nnadi is a dependable player who made a lot of starts for the Chiefs over his seven years there. He is a space-eater who soaks up blockers and keeps his linebackers clean, but has never amounted to much in the box scores. Nnadi's best season was in 2021 when he totaled 39 tackles and 3 sacks. It stands as his only season with more than one sack. We can't expect any more than that from him this year.

• Edge Jermaine Johnson – High upside sleeper coming off of ACL injury
• Edge Will McDonald IV – Good pass rusher, but not enough tackle production
• Edge Micheal Clemons – Deep sleeper with a low ceiling
• Edge Tyler Baron – Developmental rookie
• Edge Braiden McGregor – Injury sleeper at best
• DT Quinnen Williams – Quality DT1 with top-five potential
• DT Derrick Nnadi – No impact expected
• DT Byron Cowart – No impact
• DT Jay Tufele – No impact
• DT Phidarian Mathis – No impact

New York Jets Linebackers

The Jets linebacker situation is cut and dry as it gets. Jamien Sherwood stepped in to save the day when C.J. Mosley was shut down early last season. Mosley appeared in four games, but that was not enough to keep Sherwood from racking up 158 tackles, including a league-high 98 solos, and a pair of sacks. The high tackle numbers helped Sherwood be exceptionally consistent, reaching double-digit points in twelve games while falling short of eight just twice. Both of those were in games that Mosley started.

At six feet two inches and 216 pounds, Sherwood is a linebacker trapped in the body of a safety. He has sideline-to-sideline range, is good in coverage, and has a knack for wading through traffic and escaping blocks to make plays. About the only thing Sherwood is not good at is forcing turnovers. With three years as a backup and one as the starter, he has one forced fumble and 4 passes defended. If the guy is going to give us 150+ tackles, we can live without turnovers.

Sherwood landed inside the top ten in most formats last year. With Mosley announcing his retirement and no one brought in to compete for playing time, there is no reason to expect a dropoff. We might even get better numbers if he can figure out the big play puzzle.

Quincy Williams is entrenched at the other starting linebacker spot. He had his first shot at a starting job as a rookie with the Jaguars in 2019. That did not go well. Williams was benched after a few games and barely saw the field in year two. He escaped Jacksonville for New York in 2021 and has been a starter ever since.

Williams logged about 70% of the playing time in 2021 and 2022. Over those two seasons, he had five sacks and four forced fumbles to go along with 146 solo tackles and 70 assists. There was week-to-week inconsistency, but overall, he was a solid third starter or quality depth for us. In 2023, the Jets elected to go with Williams as a full-time complement to Mosley. Williams played at least 93% of the snaps in fifteen contests, seeing less than 84% once. The result was 95 tackles, 44 assists, 2 sacks, 4 turnovers, and a whopping 10 passes defended. He even managed to slip into the top ten for the first time. Williams played at least 96% of the snaps in every game last season, but his tackle totals still slumped to 74 solos and 42 assists. He managed to offset much of that by turning in career-best big-play numbers that included 7 turnovers and a pair of sacks. It's hard to say what effect the coaching and scheme change will bring. That said, it's a pretty safe bet that his role will not be reduced. Expect at least quality LB3 numbers with some upside.  

The Jets still find themselves thin at the second level. They picked up former Washington first-round bust Jamin Davis for a song and have him penciled in as the third linebacker. The team added two down run stuffer Francisco Mauigoa in round five. He is likely to earn his keep on special teams. Beyond that, New York has a handful of inexperienced young players hoping to catch on via special teams. An injury to Sherwood or Williams would be a killer for this team.  

• MLB Jamien Sherwood – Priority LB2
• WLB Quincy Williams – Quality third starter ot excellent depth
• MLB Francisco Mauigoa – Developmental rookie
• SLB Jamin Davis – Injury sleeper with limited upside
• WLB Zaire Barnes – No impact

New York Jets Defensive Backs

Between regime and personnel changes, it is hard to speculate how the secondary will perform. After recording just seven interceptions a year ago, creating more big plays is a stated emphasis for the team. The question is, have they added enough playmakers to reach that goal?

The Jets have one of the game's elite corners in Sauce Gardner. They signed former Ravens starter Brandon Stephens to replace D.J. Reed opposite him. Gardner is a guy that opponents game plan to avoid. He can shut down or at least seriously limit an opponent's top receiver. This makes him a weapon for the new defensive coordinator, but not so much for the fantasy community.

Gardner is a great example of the rookie corner rule. In 2022, he was relatively productive in the box scores, going 51-24 with a pair of picks and a whopping 19 pass breakups. In year two, those numbers tumbled to 41-16 with no interceptions and 11 passes defended. Last season, they slid even further to 36-13 with 1 pick and 9 breakups. Gardner missed two games in 2024, so his totals might rebound slightly, but it's hard to make plays as a corner when no one throws the ball in your direction.

Working opposite Gardner helped Reed to become a solid option for IDP managers. Had he not missed three games, last year would have been his fourth consecutive with 60+ solo tackles. The knock on Reed was that he didn't make enough big plays. Oddly, Brandon Stephens is a virtual carbon copy. He's a big physical corner who makes a lot of tackles but has two interceptions in four seasons as a starter. Stephens put up at least 50 solo stops and 70 combined in three of his four campaigns with Baltimore. He will have plenty of opportunity to increase that tackle production even further in 2025, but can he provide a boost in game-changing plays?

Slot corner Michael Carter and converted free safety Isaiah Oliver saw a lot of action as nickel and dime defenders in 2024. It was back and forth between the two on who saw the most playing time each week, with Oliver getting most of the opportunity over the second half of the season. The competition will be renewed under the new coaching staff. Between them, Oliver and Carter have ten years of NFL experience with a noniminal five career interceptions.   

Between injuries and unimpressive play, the safety positions have been a moving target for the Jets in recent years. Several players saw work at those positions last year, including Chuck Clark, Ashtyn Davis, and Jalen Mills. Those three are gone, opening the door for an upgrade.

Tony Adams opened last season at free safety but was unimpressive in that role. With the signing of proven veteran Andre Cisco to fill the position, Adams will move back to strong safety, where he played in 2023 when Clark missed the entire season. Adams was not exactly impressive at that position either, but it was a better fit.

From a production perspective, Adams finished with a respectable 82 combined stops and 3 interceptions that season. However, inconsistency made it virtually impossible for fantasy managers to trust him in their lineups. He reached double-digit points in six of his fifteen games, failing to exceed six points in seven others. Entering his fourth year as a pro, Adams is far more experienced and has the potential benefit of a different scheme. While Adams is not a player to necessarily target, he could emerge as a contributor for us.

Andre Cisco spent his first four seasons with the Jaguars, the last three as a starter. He has the build of an enforcer at 210 pounds, but lacks the physicality to intimidate or excel in run support. With ten takeaways over the last three seasons, what Cisco brings to the party is dependable open-field tackling and big-play contributions. He is a player the team can plug in at free safety with confidence. What Cisco does not provide is fantasy value. He averaged 45 solo tackles as a starter with a career best of 49 in 2022.  

With Isaiah Oliver as a utility player of sorts, the Jets have some wiggle room in terms of secondary depth. More than one injury among the starters could be a problem. They added corner Azareye'h Thomas in the third round and Malachai Moore in the fourth. Both players are projects, with Thomas having more potential to be a factor down the road.  

• SS Tony Adams – Depth with limited upside
• FS Andre Cisco – Marginal fantasy impact
• SS Malachi Moore – Rookie project
• CB/FS Isaiah Oliver – Not much statistical impact
• CB Sauce Gardner – Great NFL player, not so much for fantasy
• CB Brandon Stephens – Likely a solid CB2 for us
• CB Michael Carter II – No impact expected
• CB Azareye'h Thomas – Developmental rookie

That does it for the East. We head south with the next stop in Atlanta.

Enjoy this article? Find more from John here.