Utilizing tiers in fantasy football provides several strategic advantages beyond simple rankings. Rankings are linear, but tiers group players of similar value together. This helps you recognize when there's a big drop-off in talent, so you don't overreact to slight differences in rank. For example, if multiple wide receivers are left in a tier but only one player in the current running-back tier, you're more likely to take the running back before that tier is eliminated.
We'll cover every positional tier as the offseason progresses; today, we examine running backs.
RELATED: See Quarterback Tiers and Value Picks here.
Cliff's Notes: The Top 16 Values at Running Back
- Chase Brown, CIN
- Jordan Mason, MIN
- Ken Walker III, SEA
- Alvin Kamara, NO
- Chuba Hubbard, SEA
- Isiah Pacheco, KC
- Jaylen Warren, PIT
- James Conner, ARI
- Roschon Johnson, CHI
- Josh Jacobs, GB
- Kyren Williams, LAR
- J.K. Dobbins, DEN
- Brashard Smith, KC
- Kyle Monangai, CHI
- Rachaad White, TB
- Sean Tucker, TB
Elite RB1s
- Saquon Barkley, PHI
- Bijan Robinson, ATL
- Ashton Jeanty, LV
These backs are the engines of their offenses. They are either on the upslope side of their career curves or in their primes. Their situations are good to great. Any of them could finish as the #1 back. Barkley will likely cost a top-3 pick, Robinson a top-5 pick, and Jeanty a top-8 to top-10 pick.
Barkley showed what he can do with a great line in front of him last year. He's a reasonable pick at #1 overall given the cost and supply of running back production in fantasy leagues. If you're looking for a reason to sell Barkley, it's fair to wonder if he can reach the same level coming off a 378-touch regular season followed by a 104-touch postseason.
Robinson has had to deal with the turbulence of bad quarterback play and Arthur Smith, but he is cleared for takeoff with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, Zac Robinson running the offense, and a strong supporting cast. A year from now, Robinson could be the consensus #1 pick.
Jeanty should immediately be the Raiders' signature offensive player. He'll be running behind a solid line with Chip Kelly calling the shots and Geno Smith at quarterback, which is a more than good enough environment to support immediate elite numbers. Jeanty has inexhaustible stamina, a strong resume as a receiver, and an old-school head coach. He could be the best pick of the first round this year.
Almost Elite RB1
- Jahmyr Gibbs, DET
Gibbs was Robinson's equal last year, but in any given week, David Montgomery is more likely to vulture touchdowns from Gibbs than Tyler Allgeier is to vulture scores from Robinson. Gibbs is a strong fantasy RB1, but he's essentially in a timeshare backfield, which limits his season-long ceiling to below that of the elite backs unless David Montgomery misses significant time. Gibbs is going ahead of Jeanty. Whether you take Gibbs or Jeanty as the RB3 in your draft depends on whether you value ceiling or floor. Both are worthy picks in the mid-first.
Time to Pull the Ripcord? RB1s
- Derrick Henry, BAL
- Christian McCaffrey, SF
It's better to be a year early than a year late when it comes to avoiding the running back age cliff. These backs will be available in the late first/early second and are much more palatable after the turn when you've already gotten your top remaining wide receiver. They could return early-mid first value, but they could also be sucker bets.
Henry showed no signs of falling off last year, and his environment is well-suited to maximizing his strengths. The team also just signed him to a top-dollar extension. The track record of 31-year-old backs isn't great, but Henry's 2024 already defied age curves. If you're fading him due to age, you should consider putting a chip on Justice Hill/Keaton Mitchell or the Ravens' passing game (or both).
McCaffrey isn't dealing with any lingering issues from his nightmare 2024, so there's a chance that he'll just pick up where he left off and resume being an elite fantasy RB1. It won't be a surprise, though, if he breaks down again - Kyle Shanahan said McCaffrey is "as healthy as he can be" in May, and McCaffrey himself said he "started from scratch" and "built back a base" this offseason. If you don't want to take him in the early second, consider targeting Isaac Guerendo or Jordan James late.
RB1s With Momentum
- Jonathan Taylor, IND
- Chase Brown, CIN **VALUE PICK**
- Bucky Irving, TB
This group played their best football down the stretch last year, and they will all be great value picks if they don't miss a beat in 2025. Brown is going a half round or more after Taylor and Irving, and taking him instead of one of them would allow you to take your preferred second-round wide receiver or an elite TE1 and still get a back from this tier.
For the last five games of 2024, Taylor looked like (and was used like) the running back we considered at #1 overall two years ago. The quarterback situation is somewhat bleak; the Colts' line has two new starters, and Taylor's ankle issues resurfaced last season. But all of that is baked into his price.
Brown was a league winner, as expected, once Zack Moss went down. Moss will be back, but his ability to contribute is unknown after he took a pay cut. Tajh Brooks is good, but he's not turning this into a committee any time soon. When taken as a whole, the mild nature of the Bengals' moves at running back this offseason suggests that they are comfortable with Brown as their clear lead back, given his performance in the second half of 2024. He's one of the best values on the board at running back.
Once the Bucs turned to Irving as their starter, he was a strong RB1 and first-round value. It was only a six-game sample, but Irving got hurt in one of the games and barely played. In the other five, his scoring level was basically the same as Barkley's.
Discount RB1s
- Josh Jacobs, GB **VALUE PICK**
- Kyren Williams, LAR **VALUE PICK**
- Chuba Hubbard, CAR **VALUE PICK**
- Alvin Kamara, NO **VALUE PICK**
This group produced RB1 numbers last year, and they are roughly in the same situation. None are on the upslope side of their career arc, but none showed obvious signs of decline last year. All are available at a discount from where their 2024 scoring would dictate they go in 2025 drafts.
Jacobs was everything the Packers hoped he would be, and MarShawn Lloyd basically had a lost rookie year. The Packers' offense should center on Jacobs again, but you can sometimes get him in the third round, a great value.
Williams was the clear primary back, even though the Rams drafted Blake Corum in the third round. Corum didn't play much, but the Rams went back to the well and drafted Jarquez Hunter in the fourth round this year. Hunter's power game could be well-suited to short-yardage work, but the Rams are working on an extension with Williams, so there's no reason to think his role will change greatly.
Hubbard was one of the breakout backs of 2024. He was a low RB1 who managed to put up fantasy points despite the quarterback turbulence. Rico Dowdle isn't going to turn this into a true committee, so Hubbard is grossly underpriced.
Kamara should be counted on a lot by an inexperienced Saints starting quarterback, although this offense might not be finding the end zone that often. He's still a fine PPR RB2, and you only have to pay a low RB2 price for him.
Boom/Bust RB1s
- De'Von Achane, MIA
- Ken Walker III, SEA **VALUE PICK**
- James Cook, BUF
- Breece Hall, NYJ
This group is full of backs whose floor on paper is a strong RB2 option, with upside to be more, but they come with a healthy skepticism about their 2025 prospects for a wide range of reasons, and their prices range from the second to fifth round, so there are opportunities to take a stand in your draft on this wide range of outcomes group.
Achane was a solid second-round pick last year, not because of the big-play upside he showed in 2023, but instead a high target volume from a passing game that couldn't stretch the field. The Dolphins offense is treading water, but there's no discount on Achane due to his mediocre surroundings.
Walker was a low RB1 last year, when healthy. It was his most productive per-game fantasy season, mostly because of a bump in passing game usage. Comments from the new regime indicate that he'll be featured in the new Klint Kubiak running game, but the offense could take a hit if Sam Darnold's renaissance was based more on his surroundings in Minnesota than something that truly changed inside of him. Walker's price more than reflects these reasons for hesitation, so he should be a target at ADP.
Cook had a very high (unsustainable?) touchdown rate last year, which made him a low RB1, but you can still acquire him for RB2 prices. It seems like this will be his last year in Buffalo after the team didn't want to give him the top-of-the-market extension he was seeking, so that could explain part of the skepticism on the part of drafters that he will equal his 2024 output.
Going into last season, Hall was a consideration in the top five of drafts. Now he's going well outside of the top 25. The new regime didn't commit to him as a lead back, and a cryptic fingers-crossed tweet before the draft seemed to indicate that he hoped he would be traded. If you believe in him, the price is right.
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