Running Back Tiers and Value Picks

Sigmund Bloom runs down the 2025 running backs by tiers with highlighted value picks

Sigmund Bloom's Running Back Tiers and Value Picks Sigmund Bloom Published 06/26/2025

© Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images running back

Utilizing tiers in fantasy football provides several strategic advantages beyond simple rankings. Rankings are linear, but tiers group players of similar value together. This helps you recognize when there's a big drop-off in talent, so you don't overreact to slight differences in rank. For example, if multiple wide receivers are left in a tier but only one player in the current running-back tier, you're more likely to take the running back before that tier is eliminated.

We'll cover every positional tier as the offseason progresses; today, we examine running backs.

RELATED: See Quarterback Tiers and Value Picks here.

Cliff's Notes: The Top 16 Values at Running Back

  1. Chase Brown, CIN
  2. Jordan Mason, MIN
  3. Ken Walker III, SEA
  4. Alvin Kamara, NO
  5. Chuba Hubbard, SEA
  6. Isiah Pacheco, KC
  7. Jaylen Warren, PIT
  8. James Conner, ARI
  9. Roschon Johnson, CHI
  10. Josh Jacobs, GB
  11. Kyren Williams, LAR
  12. J.K. Dobbins, DEN
  13. Brashard Smith, KC
  14. Kyle Monangai, CHI
  15. Rachaad White, TB
  16. Sean Tucker, TB

Elite RB1s

These backs are the engines of their offenses. They are either on the upslope side of their career curves or in their primes. Their situations are good to great. Any of them could finish as the #1 back. Barkley will likely cost a top-3 pick, Robinson a top-5 pick, and Jeanty a top-8 to top-10 pick. 

Barkley showed what he can do with a great line in front of him last year. He's a reasonable pick at #1 overall given the cost and supply of running back production in fantasy leagues. If you're looking for a reason to sell Barkley, it's fair to wonder if he can reach the same level coming off a 378-touch regular season followed by a 104-touch postseason.

Robinson has had to deal with the turbulence of bad quarterback play and Arthur Smith, but he is cleared for takeoff with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, Zac Robinson running the offense, and a strong supporting cast. A year from now, Robinson could be the consensus #1 pick.

Jeanty should immediately be the Raiders' signature offensive player. He'll be running behind a solid line with Chip Kelly calling the shots and Geno Smith at quarterback, which is a more than good enough environment to support immediate elite numbers. Jeanty has inexhaustible stamina, a strong resume as a receiver, and an old-school head coach. He could be the best pick of the first round this year. 

Almost Elite RB1

Gibbs was Robinson's equal last year, but in any given week, David Montgomery is more likely to vulture touchdowns from Gibbs than Tyler Allgeier is to vulture scores from Robinson. Gibbs is a strong fantasy RB1, but he's essentially in a timeshare backfield, which limits his season-long ceiling to below that of the elite backs unless David Montgomery misses significant time. Gibbs is going ahead of Jeanty. Whether you take Gibbs or Jeanty as the RB3 in your draft depends on whether you value ceiling or floor. Both are worthy picks in the mid-first.

Time to Pull the Ripcord? RB1s

It's better to be a year early than a year late when it comes to avoiding the running back age cliff. These backs will be available in the late first/early second and are much more palatable after the turn when you've already gotten your top remaining wide receiver. They could return early-mid first value, but they could also be sucker bets. 

Henry showed no signs of falling off last year, and his environment is well-suited to maximizing his strengths. The team also just signed him to a top-dollar extension. The track record of 31-year-old backs isn't great, but Henry's 2024 already defied age curves. If you're fading him due to age, you should consider putting a chip on Justice Hill/Keaton Mitchell or the Ravens' passing game (or both). 

McCaffrey isn't dealing with any lingering issues from his nightmare 2024, so there's a chance that he'll just pick up where he left off and resume being an elite fantasy RB1. It won't be a surprise, though, if he breaks down again - Kyle Shanahan said McCaffrey is "as healthy as he can be" in May, and McCaffrey himself said he "started from scratch" and "built back a base" this offseason. If you don't want to take him in the early second, consider targeting Isaac Guerendo or Jordan James late.

RB1s With Momentum

This group played their best football down the stretch last year, and they will all be great value picks if they don't miss a beat in 2025. Brown is going a half round or more after Taylor and Irving, and taking him instead of one of them would allow you to take your preferred second-round wide receiver or an elite TE1 and still get a back from this tier.

For the last five games of 2024, Taylor looked like (and was used like) the running back we considered at #1 overall two years ago. The quarterback situation is somewhat bleak; the Colts' line has two new starters, and Taylor's ankle issues resurfaced last season. But all of that is baked into his price.

Brown was a league winner, as expected, once Zack Moss went down. Moss will be back, but his ability to contribute is unknown after he took a pay cut. Tajh Brooks is good, but he's not turning this into a committee any time soon. When taken as a whole, the mild nature of the Bengals' moves at running back this offseason suggests that they are comfortable with Brown as their clear lead back, given his performance in the second half of 2024. He's one of the best values on the board at running back.

Once the Bucs turned to Irving as their starter, he was a strong RB1 and first-round value. It was only a six-game sample, but Irving got hurt in one of the games and barely played. In the other five, his scoring level was basically the same as Barkley's. 

Discount RB1s

This group produced RB1 numbers last year, and they are roughly in the same situation. None are on the upslope side of their career arc, but none showed obvious signs of decline last year. All are available at a discount from where their 2024 scoring would dictate they go in 2025 drafts.

Jacobs was everything the Packers hoped he would be, and MarShawn Lloyd basically had a lost rookie year. The Packers' offense should center on Jacobs again, but you can sometimes get him in the third round, a great value.

Williams was the clear primary back, even though the Rams drafted Blake Corum in the third round. Corum didn't play much, but the Rams went back to the well and drafted Jarquez Hunter in the fourth round this year. Hunter's power game could be well-suited to short-yardage work, but the Rams are working on an extension with Williams, so there's no reason to think his role will change greatly.

Hubbard was one of the breakout backs of 2024. He was a low RB1 who managed to put up fantasy points despite the quarterback turbulence. Rico Dowdle isn't going to turn this into a true committee, so Hubbard is grossly underpriced.

Kamara should be counted on a lot by an inexperienced Saints starting quarterback, although this offense might not be finding the end zone that often. He's still a fine PPR RB2, and you only have to pay a low RB2 price for him.

Boom/Bust RB1s 

This group is full of backs whose floor on paper is a strong RB2 option, with upside to be more, but they come with a healthy skepticism about their 2025 prospects for a wide range of reasons, and their prices range from the second to fifth round, so there are opportunities to take a stand in your draft on this wide range of outcomes group.

Achane was a solid second-round pick last year, not because of the big-play upside he showed in 2023, but instead a high target volume from a passing game that couldn't stretch the field. The Dolphins offense is treading water, but there's no discount on Achane due to his mediocre surroundings.

Walker was a low RB1 last year, when healthy. It was his most productive per-game fantasy season, mostly because of a bump in passing game usage. Comments from the new regime indicate that he'll be featured in the new Klint Kubiak running game, but the offense could take a hit if Sam Darnold's renaissance was based more on his surroundings in Minnesota than something that truly changed inside of him. Walker's price more than reflects these reasons for hesitation, so he should be a target at ADP.

Cook had a very high (unsustainable?) touchdown rate last year, which made him a low RB1, but you can still acquire him for RB2 prices. It seems like this will be his last year in Buffalo after the team didn't want to give him the top-of-the-market extension he was seeking, so that could explain part of the skepticism on the part of drafters that he will equal his 2024 output.

Going into last season, Hall was a consideration in the top five of drafts. Now he's going well outside of the top 25. The new regime didn't commit to him as a lead back, and a cryptic fingers-crossed tweet before the draft seemed to indicate that he hoped he would be traded. If you believe in him, the price is right.

Aging RB2s

Already a subscriber?

Continue reading this content with a 100% FREE Insider account.

By signing up and providing us with your email address, you're agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive emails from Tennessee.

It's better to be a year early than a year late when moving off of aging running backs in fantasy. The fantasy hive mind is already doing that by marking down these backs' 2025 prices from their 2024 production levels. We are probably underrating one or two of these backs, but one or two will fall off a la 2024 Raheem Mostert.

Conner turned 30 this offseason, but for the second straight year, his best football came late in the season. The Cardinals obviously believe in him - they gave him a two-year, $19 million extension in November. Trey Benson isn't a bust, but he's not an overwhelming talent, so Conner will still be the lead back. His age discount is exaggerated, so he's a buy.

Mixon's ADP is sliding after the Texans signed Nick Chubb. Missing time in OTAs with an ankle injury isn't helping his case, and Houston also drafted passing down specialist Woody Marks in the fourth round - he could play a James White role in new offensive coordinator and McVay/McDaniels disciple Nick Caley's offense.

Last year's ADP assumed a big step forward for Jahmyr Gibbs' value, and a step back for Montgomery. Gibbs did take a step forward, but Montgomery didn't fall off much from his strong RB2 production of 2023. His ADP is still lagging behind his recent level of production. He's a good target in half-point-PPR and non-PPR leagues.

Rookie-Hype Picks

The fantasy community has not gotten carried away by rookie running back hype in the wake of the draft. None of these backs are going at exorbitant prices, but all are going around the same range as proven producers who have already been mentioned in this article. There's a bet on talent here, as none of these backs will be handed a feature back role on a silver platter, and all have to deal with the uncertainty of the value of the established backs on their rosters and their coach's approach to managing their backfield.

Henderson should get a bump in PPR leagues and could easily outperform his ADP in that format as a potential favored target for Drake Maye. Monitor training camp news about their chemistry closely.

The Chargers gave Gus Edwards a significant role last year behind J.K. Dobbins, so they aren't going to make Najee Harris a backup. Hampton's redraft ADP has a first-round rookie tax. Harris' role will have to stay limited to what Edwards did last year, and Hampton will have to outperform Dobbins for this pick to hit its strong RB2 ceiling.

Judkins has the clearest path to a feature back job, but he's in the worst situation. His price is brought down by the hesitation of fantasy players to invest in the Browns offense, but when you picture him taking handoffs from Kenny Pickett, you understand why.

Harvey had a lot of momentum in redraft leagues... until the Broncos signed J.K. Dobbins. We may look back and say Dobbins should have gone ahead of Harvey, but for now, the gap between the two is large. Sean Payton's fickle usage last year raises the specter of a monkey wrench for Harvey's fantasy reliability, but it could just be that Payton didn't really believe in any of his backs last season. The best hope here is a reprise of the New Orleans Ingram/Sproles backfield and usage, with Harvey playing the Sproles role.

Like Hampton, the key to Kaleb Johnson's fantasy value lies in predicting how much better he'll be than Najee Harris. Johnson should get Harris' role in a lukewarm Steelers offense. Ideally, he's a better fit in Arthur Smith's zone running game, and Aaron Rodgers joins the team and writes a better closing act for his career, buoying Johnson's value to somewhere around David Montgomery. The problem is that it's already about where Johnson is going in drafts.

Skattebo is going earlier than Tyrone Tracy Jr. in the majority of drafts. Skattebo will need another outbreak of fumblitis from Tracy and avoid his own documented fumble issues to hit in fantasy leagues. The best strategy for the Giants' backfield is probably to avoid in redraft and only dabble in best ball.

Liam Coen's last hand-picked fourth-round back was Bucky Irving. This year in Jacksonville, it's Tuten, who has home run speed... and a fumble issue that popped up on his first carry in OTAs. Coen has also dispelled the notion that the team dislikes Travis Etienne Jr., so Tuten's redraft stock has cooled. This situation could be fluid as we get into training camp.

Low-Ceiling RB2s/RB3s

It's unlikely that any of these backs make your season, but the price of this tier accurately reflects their limited ceilings. At their prices, they don't have to make your season to be good picks that contribute to a good season for your team. Most of them will have stable roles in their backfields, and the ones that aren't assured of that have the potential for the largest share of their backfields in this tier. They can help as depth bench backs and backup flexes in redraft and help when you go minimal early at running back in best ball leagues.

Pacheco started the season as the clear lead back and was productive through two games before an ankle injury ruined his season. If he gets everything back after looking limited upon his return, and the Chiefs commit to him again, he'll be one of the best picks at running back this year, going 3-4 rounds after he went in 2024. 

Swift dodged the Jeanty and Henderson bullets in the draft. The Bears didn't add a back until the seventh round (Rutgers Kyle Monangai), so Swift should be the favorite to lead this backfield in touches again. The new offensive regime and line upgrades could boost Swift's stock, but he failed to win over Ben Johnson when the two were together in Detroit, so he has the largest range of outcomes in this tier.

The Titans' roster had a lot of needs, so they didn't upgrade from the duo of Pollard and Tyjae Spears last year. Spears hasn't proven that he can stay healthy, so Pollard should get some slam dunk spot starts, and he could be improved strictly on the back of offensive improvement in Brian and Bill Callahan's second year with #1 overall pick Cam Ward at quarterback.

Robinson faded down the stretch last year, and there was talk that the Commanders wanted to upgrade their backfield. But they only added Jacory Croskey-Merritt in the seventh round. Robinson's ADP is essentially where it was last year, and his 2024 numbers support it, even though his outcome is largely viewed as disappointing. There are enough rushing touchdowns available to make him worth his ADP and maybe a little more.

The Vikings decided to bring Jones back at basically a starter's salary this season, but they also added Jordan Mason, who should be much stiffer competition for touches (especially at the goal line) than Ty Chandler and Cam Akers were last year. His arrow is pointing down.

Mason was very good as the starter when Christian McCaffrey went down, but he'll be in a timeshare with Aaron Jones this year. The Vikings offense will strive to be run first, while Mason should get his number called at the goal line, so his appeal (especially in best ball) is similar to Jones with a cheaper price. Jones also tends to miss a few games a year, although he has played in all 17 in two of the last three seasons.

Warren's role is unlikely to change after the Steelers drafted Kaleb Johnson to be the early-down back in the third round. Warren wasn't very impactful for fantasy last year, but uncertainty about how the rookie adjusts to the NFL gives the veteran some upside.

Etienne has already seen a turnaround in his ADP momentum this offseason. When the Jaguars selected Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round, it was seen as a bad sign for Etienne, and buzz circulated that the new regime did not favor him. Liam Coen said there was no basis for that perception and that Etienne is excited by the new offense, which will use him more in space and could reignite his career.

Tracy looked like a rising fantasy star when he took over the Giants' backfield last year, but a spate of fumbles seemed to shake the coaching staff's confidence. The team drafted Cam Skattebo, who is no stranger to putting the ball on the turf, in the fourth round. This is likely to be a committee, but if both backs practice good ball security or both backs have issues again, then Tracy should lead the backfield in touches.

Dobbins is a bit of a riddle in a Broncos backfield that could produce anywhere from zero to two reliable weekly options. If he's the early down and goal line back and gets some passing down work, he will be a good pick at an ADP that hasn't risen significantly after his signing.

Second Fiddles

These backs are all projected to be the second most valuable back in their backfields, or at least are far from assured of being the most valuable. They have a mix of floor and ceiling depending on who the #1 back ahead of them is and where they are in their career arc.

It might surprise you to learn that White was an adequate PPR RB2 even after Bucky Irving took over in Week 12. The Bucs offense is just that good. Add in some Irving injury upside, and you have a useful running back bench pick going way later in drafts than he should be.

How much was the Steelers' offense holding Harris back? If he is actually a solid starter-level NFL back, playing in an offense with a legitimate quarterback and a quality line could reveal another side to Harris' game. The Chargers did draft Omarion Hampton at #22, so it's possible that Harris' upside is capped no matter how well he performs. His ADP only dropped a round or two after Hampton was drafted.

Mike Vrabel said Stevenson is going to be a big part of what the Patriots do. But ball security issues eroded his role last year, and the Patriots added TreVeyon Henderson in the early second round. His ADP has dropped significantly for the second straight season.

Charbonnet had some big games in place of an injured Ken Walker III last year, but it's clear that the team still prefers Walker. While he remains likely to get multiple starts this year, Charbonnet's workload when Walker is out could take a hit if Seahawks seventh-round pick Damien Martinez wins them over as an early-down power back option.

The Bears admitted that they misused Roschon Johnson last year. With the team making no significant additions at running back, he could play the David Montgomery role for new head coach Ben Johnson, which would be pretty valuable in best ball leagues, considering the upgrades on the offensive line and coaching staff. He could even be the most valuable fantasy back in this backfield.

Guerendo's physical gifts showed when he got to start late in the season. But he also got hurt twice, and the team drafted the super-solid and assignment-sound option Jordan James in the fifth. If he can stay healthy and outplay James this summer, he'll be poised to be the high-value injury-upside backup to Christian McCaffrey, but that outcome is far from a given.

Ekeler showed that he still has the burst that made him a first-round fantasy pick in the not-so-distant past. His season was marred by two concussions last year, so the Commanders are unlikely to make him a true feature back again if Brian Robinson Jr. goes down. They did give him goal-line carries when Robinson was out last year, and Ekeler was effective. He is an underrated best ball back.

It's probably going to be another season of the waiting game for Benson, who had some flashes before missing the last three games with an ankle injury. James Conner set a career high for games played with 16 last year, so Benson could be a roster clogger in short bench leagues.

There's no doubt that Allgeier would be a borderline fantasy RB1 for any games that Bijan Robinson misses. There's a lot of uncertainty about whether Robinson, who hasn't missed a game yet this year, will give him that opportunity before Allgeier becomes a free agent next season.

Spears missed time with three different injuries last year and just might not be up to being more than a role player in the NFL. He did finish strong, plus the team has said they want a more even split with him and Tony Pollard, so maybe we are underestimating what Spears can do in best ball if he stays healthy.

Davis looked capable as a lead back when James Cook missed a game last year, but he doesn't have fantasy value when Cook is healthy. 

Wright has had a good offseason and should be the clear #2 back behind De'Von Achane, who might not be built to hold up under the kind of heavy workload the team game him in 2024.

Hill quietly notched four regular-season touchdowns and another in the playoffs. His best ball appeal is bolstered by Lamar Jackson's willingness to rely on him as a primary receiver at times. While Hill wouldn't truly take over the backfield if Derrick Henry goes down, he would certainly become an every-week start in PPR leagues.

Dowdle looked like a starting-quality NFL running back by the time the season was winding up, but the Cowboys chose Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders over him in free agency, presumably because of Dowdle's initial asking price. He ended up settling for the #2 job in Carolina, although the Panthers drafted a quality third-down back in Trevor Etienne, so Dowdle might be in a committee if Chuba Hubbard misses time.

Battling for a Larger Role

This group of late-round options presents paths to value, but there are good reasons why they are late-round backs. 

Bigsby rebounded from a disastrous rookie year to show the big-play burst that Travis Etienne Jr. has mostly lacked. It is possible that he ends up being the most valuable Jaguars back this year in the new look offense, and we should be listening to reports out of Jacksonville about the new coaching staff's preferences in the backfield.

Tucker is good enough to play a bigger role than the #3 back, and he's in a great offense, but it will take an injury to Bucky Irving or Rachaad White for him to matter this season. The team has said they want to use him more, but that's probably more of a compliment than a plan. He's a 

Allen and Davis were used almost interchangeably last year, and the way Aaron Glenn talked about them and Breece Hall suggests that we'll likely see something similar this year. What is unknown is how big Breece Hall's role will be, or whether Hall will be traded at some point this season with free agency coming next season.

Mitchell got $1.35 million guaranteed from the Chiefs, so they expect him to make the roster and have a role. He has always been effective - the problem has been staying healthy. He probably won't overcome Isiah Pacheco on the depth chart, but Pacheco might not be the same after his gnarly ankle injury last year, and Mitchell's big-play speed will be attractive to the Chiefs coaching staff if Mitchell avoids the injury bug.

Priority Bench-Stash Rookies

It's always fun to stash a rookie running back at the end of your bench. Some leagues aren't deep enough to accommodate these third-day rookie picks, but if yours is, there are a lot to choose from. Monangai could win a role right away in a wide-open Bears backfield. Smith and Croskey-Merritt are probably the most dynamic backs on their rosters. Watch the training camp reports to see how the battles for backup roles between Marks vs. Dameon Pierce, Brooks vs. Samaje Perine/Zack Moss, and Hunter vs. Blake Corum are progressing for their teams and adjust the rankings as necessary.

Second-Tier Bench-Stash Rookies

This group of rookies isn't quite as close to fantasy relevance as the first tier going into the summer, but things can change quickly. Blue's speed could put him in the lead for carries in Dallas, and Mafah's power could also stand out. Martinez is good enough to displace Kenny McIntosh as the #3 back on a team with an injury-prone #1. Giddens, Sampson, Neal, and James could push for backup running back duties over Jerome Ford, Kendre Miller, and Isaac Guerendo with a good camp and preseason. Allen and Etienne have classic third-down back skillsets and could prove they are capable of more to the regimes that drafted them. Gordon and Mullings give their teams physical backs who can handle some of the load on early downs if the starters go down.

Battling for a Role

This is a mishmash of backs battling for roles, or in some cases, roster spots. Williams is a bit overrated in best ball circles as the favorite to lead the Cowboys' backfield in touches, but we saw how that went with Ezekiel Elliott last year. Sanders could figure in more when the dust settles as the superior physical talent. Pierce, Herbert, Corum, Moss, Ford, and Singletary will be battling rookie backs for playing time. Green Bay's backup situation is an unknown with Lloyd trying to overcome a lost rookie season because of injury. Estime is trying to prove he can contribute between the tackles after injuries sidetracked his rookie season, but the team signing J.K. Dobbins in June is a bad sign. Likewise for Kendre Miller after the Saints signed Cam Akers. They'll battle sixth-round rookie Devin Neal to back up Alvin Kamara. Gibson is one of the best #3 backs in the league and could surprise if he's pushed into duty. Mostert and McCormick (and Zamir White) will battle to back up Ashton Jeanty.

Role Players

This group has passing game roles that could provide some value in deep PPR leagues, including best ball, but they are likely to be in committees if the starters ahead of them go down. Shipley and Mitchell are the most interesting, as they are playing behind a 31-year-old back coming off an almost 500-touch season.

 

Photos provided by Imagn Images

More by Sigmund Bloom

 

Tight End Tiers and Value Picks

Sigmund Bloom

Sigmund Bloom runs down the 2025 tight ends by tiers with highlighted value picks

05/15/25 Read More
 

The Best Road Trip for Every NFL Fanbase

Sigmund Bloom

Which road game makes for the best getaway in 2025?

05/16/25 Read More
 

Quarterback Tiers and Value Picks

Sigmund Bloom

Sigmund Bloom runs down the 2025 quarterbacks by tiers with highlighted value picks

05/08/25 Read More
 

Rookie Big Board by Bloom, Start-1-QB Leagues

Sigmund Bloom

Rookie Big Board for leagues that start a single quarterback.

04/30/25 Read More
 

Rookie Big Board by Bloom, Superflex Leagues

Sigmund Bloom

Rookie Big Board for leagues that have superflex lineups.

04/30/25 Read More
 

Rookie Big Board by Bloom, IDP Leagues

Sigmund Bloom

Rookie Big Board for leagues that start a single quarterback and defensive players.

04/30/25 Read More