All dynasty projections are difficult, but some come with more moving parts than others. Perhaps no rookie wide receiver better illustrates that than Donte Moncrief. Without even considering the players around him, Moncrief's rookie campaign and skill set put him firmly on the bubble at wide receiver. When you factor in those outside factors, things become even less clear. One of the best wide receivers in the franchise's history is aging quickly and may or may not return. To further confuse things, the team just signed Duron Carter from the CFL. Heading into 2015 Moncrief could be anywhere from WR2 to WR4 in one of the most prolific passing offenses in the league. So what is his dynasty value?
The Player
Before considering anything else, the most important part of a dynasty projection is the player himself. If Moncrief is a stud it eventually won't matter who is in front of him. By the same token if he's mediocre having Andrew Luck as his quarterback won't be enough to elevate him to be a consistent fantasy WR2. Unfortunately, Moncrief showed flashes of both in 2014.
At 6'2" and 221 pounds, the third round pick out of Mississippi got off to an understandably slow start. In the first 7 weeks of the season the rookie wide out saw 11 targets before busting out against the Steelers in Week 8 with 7-113-1. Unfortunately, that was not a sign of things to come. Outside of a monster Week 13 vs. Washington (3-134-2) Moncrief was largely an afterthought in an offense that threw for more than 4700 yards. That inconsistency continued in the playoffs. After catching all 3 targets for 54 yards and a touchdown against Cincinnati, Moncrief caught 2 of 9 targets for 32 yards in the Colts final 2 games. While the numbers show a receiver with two big weeks and an otherwise underwhelming rookie campaign, there's a case to be made that he was the team's second most efficient receiver behind T.Y. Hilton.
| Player | TAR | REC | YDS | TD | REC % | Y/R | FP/TARGET |
| Hilton | 131 | 82 | 1345 | 7 | 62.6% | 16.4 | 1.97 |
| Moncrief | 49 | 32 | 444 | 3 | 65.3% | 13.9 | 1.93 |
| Nicks | 69 | 38 | 405 | 4 | 55.1% | 10.7 | 1.49 |
| Wayne | 116 | 64 | 779 | 2 | 55.2% | 12.2 | 1.33 |
Moncrief's counting stats lagged behind because of a lack of targets but he topped Nicks and Wayne in nearly every efficiency category. It's important to note that efficiency stats can be skewed when a receiver sees as few targets as Moncrief, and Nicks and Wayne were bad enough that Moncrief didn't have to be all that special to place second in this group. With that in mind, this type of efficiency would have placed Moncrief at PPR WR28 with 100 targets last season. That's just behind Sammy Watkins.
To get a better feel for Moncrief, I took a look at the film and a few things stuck out, both negative and positive.
- He is not a natural "hands catcher". Too many times, especially on deep passes, he let the ball come to him instead of going up and snagging it.
- His speed will play, especially on short routes from the slot against safeties and linebackers.
- Separation comes easy for him, even with contact at the line of scrimmage.
- His effort and execution are far from consistent.
All of this points to the idea that Moncrief is not a physical talent so dominant that he's likely to grab a WR1 job at some point in the near future. He does however have the requisite abilities to be a WR2 in a prolific attack with an elite quarterback like Andrew Luck. This makes his future a bit murkier and more reliant on how the situation around him unfolds.
The Situation
It was covered above, but in case you missed it, Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks were not good last year. Both players are free agents and there is no reason to think Nicks will be returning. The situation with Wayne is less predictable. Wayne has amassed more than 14,000 yards with the Colts and if he wants to return for the right money, they'll probably take him. If Wayne returns it may be difficult for Moncrief to earn more than a share of the WR2 duties just because of the rapport the veteran has built with Andrew Luck. What wasn't covered above is that Wayne and Nicks may be the least of Moncrief's concerns.
Indianapolis has a pair of young tight ends that are both improving. In the second half of 2014 the Colts really focused on getting the ball to those tight ends and their running backs. From Week 9 on the Colts threw more than 45% of their passes to running backs and tight ends and more then 53% of their touhcdowns went to non-receivers. If this trend continues it would mean a decrease in targets for whoever is playing second or third fiddle to T.Y. Hilton in the Indianapolis receiving corps.
Further muddying the water was the signing of Duron Carter. Carter is a 23 year old (2 years older than Moncrief) receiver that has spent the last two seasons in the CFL after having difficulty qualifying to play in the NCAA. He has all the measurables and was a CFL All Star in 2014 with 75 catches for 1030 yards and 7 touchdowns. Carter's skillset and length makes it easy to believe he'd be a better big play receiver than Moncrief, but there are plenty of questions to be answered. The biggest is whether Carter can be the first wide receiver in a long time to make a successful transition from the CFL to the NFL. He will have to adjust to a different type of game against bigger, faster, more skilled opponents. The odds are not in his favor. Remember, Weston Dressler was an absolute stud in Canada and can't even make an NFL roster. While Carter looks much more like an NFL player than Dressler, that's a good indication of the difference in level of play. Chances are if Donte Moncrief isn't a quality fantasy option in 2015 it will have very little to do with Carter.
The Forecast
In what has been called the great receiving class ever, Moncrief held his own from an efficiency standpoint. He ranked 4th in FP/target (between Mike Evans and Brandin Cooks), 3rd in catch % (between Odell Beckham and Jordan Matthews) and 6th in yards per reception (between Kelvin Benjamin and Beckham). Again, it's easier to be efficient with a great quarterback and limited targets. At the same time, doing good work with limited targets is often the first step towards getting more targets.
What I saw on tape gives me mixed emotions. I don't see Moncrief ever becoming a true WR1 unless he starts doing a better job of attacking the ball and I would be surprised if he develops that skill at this point in his career. I do think he's a talented enough receiver that he could be a reliable WR2 (and fantasy WR2) with Andrew Luck as his quarterback. Moncrief seems to have an acceptable understanding of the route tree and has no difficulty creating separation.
The biggest threat I see to Moncrief's situation is not Reggie Wayne or Duron Carter, it is Indianapolis' propensity to dump the ball off to running backs and tight ends. If 45% of Andrew Luck's targets are going to non-receivers and T.Y. Hilton is gobbling up another 20-25% that doesn't leave a lot of room for Moncrief unless he's the clearcut WR2.
In terms of next season I see Moncrief as a WR3 with a WR2 upside. He should see around 100 targets with a projected line of 65-910-6. His ceiling is currently limited by the way the Colts operate in the red zone and his inability to attack contested deep balls. His floor is projected by the deterioration of Wayne's skills and the improbability that Carter makes an impact in 2015.
For dynasty, I have him ranked at WR26 (Sigmund Bloom ranks him similarly at WR27). This is below the tier of receivers I believe could legitimately be a WR1 in the future. Moncrief should have several WR2 seasons ahead of him with the possibility of an outlier WR1 season should he prove himself as a quality red zone target. If this seems like a luke warm take on Moncrief's future, that's exactly what it is. He isn't a universal Buy, Sell or Hold. Because of the wide array of opinions on his future, he could be any of the above.
Follow Heath Cummings on Twitter @heathcummingssr
