Cracking DraftKings Week 4

Sunday Morning Update:

Check back each Sunday Morning for an update to the Primary Cash Lineups and final lineup thoughts

Week 2 Results- Loss: 1-2

Week 3 turned out to be one of those weeks that you didn’t start a certain player, you were just going to lose. That player was Garrett Wilson. Wilson was outstanding with 10 receptions for 107 yards and a touchdown as he benefitted significantly from a second-half that turned into a shootout, along with Breece Hall going down with an injury.

There’s nothing wrong with Garrett Wilson, but in hindsight I’m not sure that I would have played him again. It’s easy to say look at the results, and start him. This was a player at least in my model that was highly rostered because he was cheap on DraftKings. The reality was that in Weeks 1 and 2 he had seven targets in each game, averaging 63 yards and 0.5 touchdowns through those two games. All catches and targets matter, but this is a player who had six of his ten receptions and his touchdown in the fourth quarter (five in the last six minutes) all of which came after Breece Hall was injured. If not for that injury, he was likely in line for another 60-70 yard game.

However, the reality is that the lineup construction was just incorrect. I tried to overthink this by playing two tight ends, and avoiding the low-end running backs like Jaylen Warren who had an amazing day. Regarding the two tight ends, I wrote it in the article, that if you believe Josh Allen were to have an awesome game, it would likely be because of Dalton Kincaid. However, Allen had his worst game of the season thus far, turning the ball over three times in an incredibly sloppy game, and Kincaid did nothing.

In hindsight, if that lineup runs it back multiple times, I think it is a solid lineup. Going with a Saints double stack was not a bad move, as they threw for four touchdown passes. The problem was that the four touchdown passes all went to tight ends as Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele were shutout in the red zone. The biggest mistake was Kyler Murray. As I write this on October 3rd, I'll make a cheesy "Mean Girls" reference to win brownie points with the wife. Stop trying to make Fetch (Kyler Murray) happen. Murray is a blindspot for me, he's a player that I think back to when he's at his peak, he could be as good as anyone, but at this point need to realize that he's likely never getting back to that point. Had I played Tyler Shough, that lineup would have been above the cash line, and it would have been a completely different week. The lesson is playing two receivers can work out, but you should always play the quarterback along with them at that point. 

The Good:

• Chris Olave was a solid play. Any time you can get 22.7 points without a touchdown is the right call, as the touchdown variance odds are hard to project on a week-to-week basis.
• Paying down for defenses continues to be the right call. Tennessee at $2.4k was perfectly fine with seven points.

The Bad:

• Dalton Schultz was 52% rostered, so it's hard to say he was a bad play, but he was extremely disappointing. After a heavily targeted Week 2, Schultz had just three catches for 30 yards in an abysmal showing at his price point.
• It's hard to win in 2026 when your quarterback puts up only 11.4 DraftKings points. It's even harder when that player is just 4% rostered. Tyler Shough should have been the play all day long considering I was playing two Saints receivers. That would have pushed the lineup above the cash line.
• Not playing Garrett Wilson and Jaylen Warren. In hindsight, due to the Steelers’ running back injuries, Warren should have been a more obvious play than what he was in my view. Part of my blind spot and area that I need to improve on is that I let prior bias fuel into future analysis. I’ve seen how many times we’ve done the Jaylen Warren breakout game, and just struggle to get on that train from time-to-time.

Primary Cash Lineup Total- 143.6

• QB Kyler Murray, MIN, $5,100-11.42
• RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, $8,800- 41.4
• RB Ken Walker III, KC, $7,400- 21.3
• WR Parker Washington, JAX, $6,000- 13.0
• WR Chris Olave, NO, $7,200- 22.7
• WR Devaughn Vele, NO, $4,400- 6.9
• TE Travis Kelce, KC, $4,500- 13.9
• Flex TE Dalton Schultz, HOU, $4,200- 6.0
• TD Tennessee, $2,400- 7.0

Injury Creates Opportunity

• Christian Gonzalez is out for the Patriots, which is a massive blow to their secondary. He’s such a key player for this defense that is not playing to expectations
• Both Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell are out for the Jets. This is a significant upgrade for Braelon Allen, Garrett Wilson, and Kenyon Sadiq, as the Jets entire offense will likely funnel through those three players. This is a favorable matchup against the Bears that
• Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are out for Philadelphia in a critical NFC game. This likely means that Dontayvion Wicks has a massive opportunity to step up for the Eagles this week. At $5,900, expect him to be extremely popular this week. Makai Lemon, the 2026 first-round pick for the Eagles may get some interest, but the reality there is he’s likely going to continue to just run the same short/underneath routes as they’re likely not going to want to change a rookies role four games into the season just for what could be a one-week thing.
• Puka Nacua is back for the Rams, which is very exciting news. DraftKings has screwed up his pricing a bit to make it an actual decision here. At $7,500 he's definitely in play for a GPP play. We don’t know how he is going to perform in Week 1, especially with how dominant Davante Adams has been the first three weeks. It’s a good problem to have for the Rams who legitimately have two of the six best wide receivers in the NFL.
• Baker Mayfield is out for the Buccaneers. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels will get the start. Daniels is a lot of fun and was great at Kansas when he was healthy. However, the step-up from a middle-of-the-road Big 12 team, to the NFL is massive. Expect the Buccaneers to struggle offensively this week.
• Justin Jefferson is out for the Vikings with an ankle injury. Both Jordan Addison and Aaron Jones Sr. should see massive upgrades this week. The reality is that Minnesota should still be able to move the ball against the hapless Miami defense, so they likely will do it through those two players while sprinkling in some T.J. Hockenson.
• Ladd McConkey is questionable for the Chargers with a foot injury. I just don’t know that I can have any interest in the Chargers at this point. We’ve done the McConkey thing twice, and both times had losing weeks. It’s likely I’m just going to move away from the Chargers and their lack of offense for a few weeks.
• Jadarian Price is out for the Seahawks. This one is interesting. Both Emmanuel Wilson and George Holani will have a role here, but Wilson is the player that is particularly interesting. Holani was limited with a rib injury, and while he was cleared to play, it’s likely Wilson that will see the bulk of the work.

Week 4 Strategy: What do we think we know so far?

Through three weeks, the big question is what do we think we know so far about the 2026 season? The phrasing of this was intentional. The reality is that through just three weeks, it is still an evolution of a season, especially at the wide receiver position. Last year, Rome Odunze (3^rd), Tre Tucker (4^th), Quentin Johnston (6^th), and Keenan Allen (8^th) were all in the top 10 of fantasy scoring. Meanwhile, Ja’Marr Chase was 12^th, George Pickens was 21^st, and Chris Olave was 35^th with all three of those players finishing in the top 10, not to mention Michael Wilson’s late season rise into the top 20 after starting 89^th through three weeks.