We're basically at the halfway point in the season and that means it's a great time to reevaluate your roster. Injuries have affected nearly every fantasy squad this season, meaning that everyone has holes and few teams have the depth they'd like to have. What this means is if you want to make a deal, you need to make shrewd decisions. It's not enough to buy low, you need to buy the guys low that have the best chance of turning things around. It's not enough to sell high, you need to sell the guys who have the least chance of maintaining that high production. Of course this makes sense in theory, but it gets more difficult to put into practice. Using what we know about schedules, injuries and past performance we'll try to solve that mystery as well. Let's start with the selling.
High Demand
These are elite players that aren't exactly going to fall off the face of the earth. That being said, there's good reason to believe that they won't perform as well as they have in the first half, and they should fetch a small fortune in return. It takes guts to deal one of the best at their position, but guts are also needed to dominate your league.
Adrian Peterson - Yes, I'm crazy. Now that we have that out of the way, Peterson has 36 carries in his last three games combined. The Vikings defense has fallen apart, and they're playing catch up far too often in 2013. Yes, you can say that Peterson exploded around this time last year, but I'm not buying it again in 2013. If someone wants to pay you top dollar, you need to sell now. It doesn't help that his playoff schedule includes both Baltimore and Cincinnati.
Wes Welker - Welker's scored nine touchdowns in eight games. That is simply not sustainable for a player that's never scored more than nine touchdowns in an entire season. He's currently WR3 right now, but he has 70 less yards than any other receiver in the top ten. There's no way I'd give Welker away for than anything less than top value, but if you're looking to make a big move I wouldn't hesitate to make him part of it.
LeSean McCoy - McCoy has averaged 3.4 yards per carry in the last four weeks. A big part of his value early on was his volume and the threat of Michael Vick running the read option. He's seen his touches drop each of the last three weeks and there's no telling when Vick is coming back. McCoy will probably be a RB1 for the rest of the year, but he won't be THE RB1.
Andrew Luck - Luck has been a borderline QB1 so far this year but his reputation puts his value much higher than that. His remaining schedule looks pretty decent until you get to the playoffs when he faces the Bengals, Texans, and Chiefs. He's leaned heavily on Reggie Wayne his first year and a half in the league and now he's faced with a half of a season without him. Take advantage of the perception of Luck's value now.
Just Move Them
These players don't share the same demand that the players above do, but it's highly unlikely that their situations are getting better and they should still have some value. You can't be as picky when trading these players away but at the same time you shouldn't just give them away.
Darren McFadden - I would advise trading McFadden after week 10 as he has great matchups the next two weeks. The problem with waiting two weeks to trade McFadden is that you never know when that next injury is coming. That's why I'd start shopping him now and see how good of an offer you can get. You can be patient with your asking price for the next couple of weeks, just don't wait too long. McFadden finishes the fantasy season with DAL, NYJ, KC, and SD.
DeAngelo Williams - Williams has actually had a very productive season, just not in fantasy. His problem is that he's on the same team as Mike Tolbert and Cam Newton, who are both great inside the five yard line. Williams' situation gets even worse if Jonathan Stewart is able to return from a season long injury in the next couple of weeks. Hopefully right now there are still people in your league (rightfully) questioning if Stewart will ever make it back. Deal him before his value falls even further.
Harry Douglas - His value is going to plummet once Roddy White returns. Douglas has combined for 270 yards and one score in the past two weeks on 25 targets. With White back in the mix he'll be lucky to average more than 6 targets a game. Don't give him away, but don't ask to be paid for his last two weeks either. Anything in the range of a high-end WR3 would be good value.
Marvin Jones - Jones is developing into the second best wide receiver in Cincinnati and I could certainly see him as a WR3 the rest of the way. That being said, people are going crazy over his four touchdown performance and it's time to strike while the iron is hot. Andy Dalton is on an unsustainable hot streak and Jones has benefitted, but it isn't going to last all year. If you can get WR2 value for Jones move him quick.
Tony Gonzalez - The Falcons wouldn't let go of Gonzalez, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't. His value is based on volume and touchdowns. As bad as the Falcons offense looks it's hard to see him getting too much of either. They're going to struggle to maintain long drives and their going to struggle to approach the red zone. Those two things make Gonzalez expendable, especially if someone is still willing to compensate you like he's a mid-level TE1.
With those nine players set as those you're selling the more important question becomes, who do you buy? The players you get rid of won't matter near as much as the players you acquire, so let's take a look at the best bets for the second half of 2013.
The Bargains
These players shouldn't cost you much, and therefore there is some risk in trading for them. They've largely struggled to start the year, but we have good reason to believe they'll be better in the second half.
Chris Johnson - By now you've probably heard about the disparity in Johnson's schedule, but just in case you haven't, here it is. In his first seven games Johnson faced the #1, #3, #4, and #8 defense against running backs in terms of fantasy points allowed. He faced none of the bottom 7 defenses against running backs. Over the next two weeks Johnson faces #27 and #32 against running backs (St. Louis and Jacksonville). He also gets Jacksonville in the fantasy playoffs as well as Denver (#25). He should be dirt cheap right now, go get him.
Dwayne Bowe - While many are saying it's time to drop Bowe, I think it's time to pick him up. He's even cheaper than Johnson and his schedule is a thing of beauty. This week he gets the #32 defense against receivers (Buffalo). After his bye he gets Denver twice (#26), San Diego twice (#27), Washington (#30) and Indianapolis (#20). More importantly, his team faces some offenses that will force them to open up the offense to keep up. Go get Bowe, especially if someone has dropped him.
Charles Clay - Clay has quietly been the eighth best tight end in fantasy football through the first half and there's reason to believe he'll be even better in the second half. Brandon Gibson's injury opens up more targets in the passing game, just when Clay seems to be establishing a better rapport with Ryan Tannehill.
Nate Washington - Washington never gets the credit he deserves, but especially this year. Jake Locker has played five games this year, in those five games Washington has averaged 4 catches for 79 yards per game. His numbers in those games projected over a full season would make him a borderline WR1, and a very solid WR2. Washington's next six games come against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league against receivers. Grab him for very little.
They're Worth Every Penny
These players will have a higher cost than those above, but as good as they've been so far we may not have seen their best yet. They're big investments that will cost you serious assets, but they're the kind of players that can lead you to the championship in your league.
Jordy Nelson - Nelson has been an absolute stud since the team lost Randall Cobb and James Jones to injury. He's scored four touchdowns in his last three games and compiled nearly 300 yards in the process. His schedule reads like a murderer's row of bad secondaries with PHI, ATL, DET, MIN, DAL, and NYG all left on the schedule. He won't be cheap, but he'll be worth it.
Eddie Lacy - Yes, I'm going all-in on the Packers in the second half. Lacy has seen his role explode after injuries decimated the Packers' receiving corps and there's no reason to think that will let up any time soon. Lacy's schedule is great in the second half, and especially in the fantasy playoffs. 25 touches a game should be the expectation, and should RB1 production.
Tony Romo - There are plenty of people that still think Romo is a choker, despite his outstanding first half of the season. He's been a solid QB1 so far this year, but his schedule lines up even better in the second half. Romo faces five of the 13 worst defenses against quarterbacks in the second half. The ranking that may matter even more is that his defense is the absolute worst against quarterbacks, meaning he'll have to keep chucking it.
Matt Forte - I might wait a week or two on this one, because Forte's next three games are pretty tough. After that though he faces STL, MIN, DAL, and CLE. All four of those teams rank in the bottom 12 against running backs. The injury to Jay Cutler is going to force the Bears to rely even more on the running game and short passing game, which should mean an even higher dose of Forte than usual.
Victor Cruz - If there's anything we know about the Giants under Tom Coughlin it's that they aren't packing it in, especially in this division. Cruz is the most talented receiver in New York and he has a great schedule after his week nine bye. See if you can find a team on the bubble that needs production this week and pry him away. It'll pay dividends when he faces San Diego and Detroit in the fantasy playoffs.
Have specific trade questions? Contact me at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr.
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