NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings Showdown lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
DraftKings Showdown Game Scripting & Roster Construction
Our John Lee will tell you that it’s still too early in the season to lean on Vegas’ guesswork. Still, it’s a bit noteworthy that the Vikings are little more than field goal favorites at home; I would’ve expected it to hold at -4.5 or -5. Perhaps the Vikings’ rash of defensive injuries (see below) accounts for that slight pro-Atlanta tilt.
Whoever takes the game: given J.J. McCarthy’s brutal first 2.5 quarters in the opener (his first pro action), I’m expecting another slow start and a drive toward the under. The current 44.5 mark feels low for this domed matchup, but these quarterbacks share a combined five NFL starts. There is real potential for a 16-9 snoozefest, and a Showdown slate won by a kicker, or a one-yard stumble-in touchdown.
If I follow that thought process: lower scoring than expected >>> better defense (Vikings) likely prevails >>> slight lean toward Vikings players.
If that hits, and the Showdown public follows the Vegas lead of slightly underestimating Vikings, then we could be strolling into some real Minnesota value.
Injury Roundup
The Falcons faced early-week uncertainty over their top two wideouts, Drake London and Darnell Mooney, but both are cleared of their shoulder injuries and will play.
The Minnesota defense will work without a handful of key contributors. Linebackers Andrew Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman, as well as rotational cornerback Jeff Okudah, have been ruled out, and linchpin safety Harrison Smith is questionable with an illness. That shaky depth could give Michael Penix Jr.. just enough comfort to take another step.