NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge comes from identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

With both DraftKings and FanDuel now using similar formats — a multiplier slot (Captain/MVP) that costs 1.5× salary and earns 1.5× points — the nuances between sites come down to scoring systems and contest dynamics. DraftKings' full PPR scoring and larger prize pools reward a slightly different decision-making process than FanDuel's half-PPR and softer fields, but the core principles of Showdown roster construction apply across both.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest-rostered player.

DraftKings Showdown Game Scripting & Roster Construction

The Rams are surging, while the Buccaneers are retreating, hence a Rams -6.5 spread. Vegas expects both teams to score (a 49.5 total), but a near-touchdown spread speaks volumes about where these teams are.

If the public is going to follow Vegas trends – and they typically do – then the value lies with the Buccaneers. And this Bucs team is far more exciting than most 6.5-point underdogs, so I’m on board! There’s a gunslinging quarterback who racks up yardage through injuries, a pair of go-to receivers, and a dual-threat runner who’s surged to the top of the depth chart. And the Rams defense, for all its 2025 improvement, can absolutely be carved up for yardage. Whether that yardage matters for the game itself, matters not to us Showdown folk!

Injury Roundup

An illness hit the Tampa Bay locker room during the week, but it doesn’t look to affect anyone’s status. The Buccaneers get back wideout Chris Godwin from a six-week injury, though it’s unknown how much he’ll play. They won’t have lead runner Bucky Irving, whom coach Todd Bowles has again ruled out.

The Rams have a handful of defenders listed questionable, but they’re remarkably healthy overall for Week Twelve.

Captain Consideration

1. Emeka Egbuka
2. Kyren Williams
3. Baker Mayfield
4. Matthew Stafford
5. Sean Tucker
6. Davante Adams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield (CPT or FLEX)

Less than two months ago, Mayfield was the MVP frontrunner, sitting 5-1 with an elite 7.9 yards per throw and 257 a game. Over four games since: 5.7 and 207, and a 1-3 record. Mayfield is a fighter, but his magic has lessened a bit in the absence of so many weapons. That slide, plus the fact that Mayfield and several teammates were limited this week by illness, should drive his appeal down some with the public.

And that makes me want to pounce. I’m rarely concerned over an “illness” that hits finely-tuned athletic machines, particularly mid-week. And Mayfield gets Chris Godwin back, which should ease some of the burden off rookie phenom Emeka Egbuka. This attack was at its best early in the year, when Egbuka was buoyed by Mike Evans on the other side. I also like the underrated matchup against a Rams defense that doesn’t break often, but bends plenty. For various reasons, five of their last seven opponents have thrown for 260+ yards.

Running Back

Sean Tucker (CPT or FLEX)
Rachaad White (FLEX)

Very, very quietly, Tucker snuck back into the Bucky Irving-less picture with tough, clutch running in Weeks Six through Eight. Over two games since the bye, he’s led the backfield and looked significantly more decisive (and explosive) than White:

It seems clear that the Bucs love what Tucker does with the ball, but appreciate White for doing the other things well. Those who track snap and target counts will skew the numbers toward White, but Tucker seems like the much more efficient play.

And as for White, there simply doesn’t feel like a path to a big night. He’s plodded along for much of his four seasons (3.8 yards per rush), and the team has clearly noticed. White is a replacement-level runner who generates little on his own – only Rams backup Blake Corum has produced less post-contact – and the Rams’ powerful front won’t do him favors.

Wide Receiver

Emeka Egbuka (CPT or FLEX)
Chris Godwin (FLEX)
Tez Johnson (FLEX)
Sterling Shepard (FLEX)

Egbuka has definitely seen his production dip over the past five weeks, catching just 43% of the balls thrown his way with just a single touchdown. There are many factors, but it can be tied somewhat to the lack of a strong, experienced wideout on the other side of the field. Nothing against Johnson and Shepard, but Egbuka has drawn relentless attention from secondaries, and he can do only so much on crowded sideline routes. Godwin’s return should ease much of that, but without taking too many targets away. Egbuka has showed us that he’s plenty capable of turning one-on-ones into chunk play after chunk play.

Godwin was a dicey play when he first returned to action in Week Four, and even more so now. He’s always been a volume-based slot guy at heart, and his per-target numbers have dropped noticeably since 2021, when injuries became a major part of his life. Now 29, he’ll struggle to produce much unless fed 12+ targets, and those days may be over. Besides, the versatile Rams have mostly shut down slot receivers here in 2025.

When these four were active together in Weeks Four and Five, snaps broke down like so:

Things have changed, though. From Week Six on, Johnson caught Baker Mayfield’s eye and beat Shepard 241-185 in snaps. He’s caught just 20 balls, but 4 have gone for touchdowns. Johnson is a rocky road with Godwin back, but his roster numbers will fall noticeably in turn.

There’s almost no upside to be found in Shepard, who’s topped 60 yards twice over 24 games as a Buc, but doesn’t come near cheaply enough to punt with.

Tight End

Cade Otton (FLEX)

Otton has long drawn heavy targets when Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, or both were on the shelf. He doesn’t do much with them, though, and he’s not the red-zone presence you’d like to see in a darkhorse Captain. It remains to be seen how involved he’ll be with Godwin back, but he was a big part of Week Five (4 catches, 81 yards), even before Godwin left.

Los Angeles Rams

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford (CPT or FLEX)

Stafford, the MVP frontrunner for the first time, looks arguably better than he ever has. He leads the NFL in both first-down throws and touchdown throws, and only one QB (Denver’s Bo Nix) has attempted more air yardage. And, if a shootout does break out, he’ll almost certainly produce.

That said, if we get anything but a shootout, then Stafford will likely spend much of the night handing off. Coach Sean McVay is a master of balancing the run/pass ratio with game flow, and Stafford won’t ever throw many more passes than he needs to.

If the general public is playing this Showdown for such a shootout – and many, many are – then Stafford (and his receivers) will go a bit over-rostered. I definitely want a chunk or two of this offense, but I’m more likely to lead with runner Kyren Williams, a route I don’t think many Showdown players will opt for.

Running Back

Kyren Williams (CPT or FLEX)
Blake Corum (FLEX)

Williams doesn’t dominate this backfield quite the way he did in 2022 and 2023. That said, he’s among fantasy’s most consistent sources of touches and touchdown chances:

Williams even iced the last two blowout wins, taking nine rushes on the two final, game-ending drives. He’s a huge part of my Showdown plans tonight. I believe the public will mostly flock to the quarterbacks and wideouts, leaving Williams just a bit underplayed – and certainly under-Captained.

Corum is valued by the Rams, but strictly as a backup. He’s garnered 48 touches over the past 4 weeks, but his lack of a niche turned them into just 18.2 DraftKings points. Only a Williams injury or an unexpected touchdown would make him worth the midlevel cost.

Wide Receiver

Puka Nacua (CPT or FLEX)
Davante Adams (CPT or FLEX)

There isn’t a situation in which Nacua isn’t squarely in Captain consideration. He’s the offensive engine, and Matthew Stafford will force him the ball (a 32% target share) on all levels of the field. Is it really “forcing,” though, if the receiver just stubbornly insists on getting himself open on virtually every snap? Nacua is a route-running maestro, and he’s dropped just 2 of his last 193 targets. He’s simultaneously the game’s most dependable slot man and a threat to take anything downfield. Nacua is the slate’s most expensive option for a reason, and he’ll be the highest-rostered for that same reason.

So, will he be worth all that rostership? Or, will we just not want to be caught without him? Both are possible, but the numbers actually point to a slight fade of Nacua. It will probably take a 10-catch, multi-touchdown eruption to reach Captain value and produce some insurmountable score. And Nacua has been good, not great, over his last three weeks since injury:

The chameleon-like Nacua has turned more playmaker than compiler of late, and there’s no getting around that dip in volume. Nor the fact that the team isn’t shy about yanking him from action at the slightest ding; they’d love to keep him fresh for the postseason. If Nacua is going to lead the Rams in receiving, but not dominate the air attack, then a fade makes the most sense. That’s especially true if Adams continues to own the red zone and dampen Nacua’s multi-touchdown chances.

Adams is a touchdown machine in Los Angeles:

He hasn’t been efficient at all, catching just 50% of his looks from Stafford, with a 6.6 yards-per-target that ranks 80^th among 108 qualifying wideouts. That’s worlds below Nacua’s 9.8 – and most of the Rams – so what gives? Clearly, Adams is most valued in a situational role. He pulls defenders away from Nacua better than Cooper Kupp could last year, which is great for the Rams offense, but doesn’t show up in a boxscore. Adams has only cleared 60 yards 3 times this year; when Nacua sat out Week Seven, he managed just 35.

Tight End

A Cast of Thousands (all FLEX)

The Rams utilize Colby Parkinson, Tyler Higbee, Davis Allen, and Terrance Ferguson – in that order, according to the snaps – at various times. Any could catch a four-yard touchdown tonight, but none offers enough of a volume outlook to consider seriously.

Kickers and Defenses

Chase McLaughlin makes for an intriguing play tonight. The Buccaneers will likely move the ball just fine, but these bend-don’t-break Rams allow touchdowns on just 44% of red-zone trips (second-best in football). There’s a strong chance McLaughlin is trotted out for three or more kicks, as he has been four times already.

The Rams’ special-teams situation has been a point of hand-wringing all year. New kicker Harrison Mevis has yet to attempt a field goal over two games; if you’ve missed the headlines, this Rams offense is good.

Rarely do we seek out a defense in a 49.5-projected matchup. Neither group records many sacks (a combined seven over the past three weeks), and neither offense gives the ball away much.

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