DraftKings Showdown Game Scripting & Roster Construction
Vegas doesn't know what to do with this game, plopping the Chiefs at (-3.5) at home. Take note: that's moved down from (-4.5) over the past few days, as more depressing Chiefs injury news has come out. This is essentially a loser-goes-home battle, with the winner in possession of a key tiebreaker for the uphill climb. Thus, both teams will approach this as a playoff game, and we're likely to see the purest forms of both offenses.
And what are those forms right now? There's potential for neither to be sexy tonight. C.J. Stroud and the Texans continue to plod along from snap to snap, ranking 21st in net pass yardage and 20th in expected points, hoping for big one-on-one splash plays. Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs continue to look like various versions of themselves from week to week.
There's real potential for a hard-hitting defensive game, one that results in lots of scoring opportunities but not so many scores. Thus, we should focus more on the compilers and chase their steady volume, rather than bank on a shootout. Of course, since we're looking for upside and uniqueness, that may involve plays (and fades) we weren't expecting.
Injury Roundup
The Texans are remarkably healthy – almost unfairly so – for a Week Fourteen battle royale.
Kansas City will take on a fierce Houston defense without their starting tackles, Josh Simmons and Juwann Taylor, or guard Trey Smith. Yes, they'll probably be penalized less, but it's far from optimal. We've seen Patrick Mahomes II's floor, and it really only comes when he's forced to sprint around all evening.
Captain Consideration
Houston Texans
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud (FLEX)
Stroud bounced back from a three-game absence to post a solid 276 yards in Week Thirteen. He continues to look like an upper-tier quarterback beset by circumstances – namely, a shaky front line and constant receiver injuries. Even when he's pressed to throw with volume, big numbers don't necessarily follow Stroud. He's only topped 20.0 DraftKings points twice in 8 full tries; even last week's strong game netted just 10.0. Now dropped against an aggressive, talented defense, it's hard to find the upside.
Running Back
Woody Marks (CPT or FLEX)
Nick Chubb (FLEX)
Chubb remains deeply valuable to the grinding, ball-control Texans' mindset. Thus, he commands 20-30% of the snaps on a given week, though his upside days are essentially over. Chubb still catches no passes of note, he isn't used much on the goal line, and the team is clearly intrigued by the dual-threat Marks.
Behind Nico Collins, Marks would benefit more than anyone from a close game with a pass-happy game script. He posted several multi-catch games early on, as a sheer part-timer, and he's averaged 10.4 yards a catch (with two additional touchdowns). And on the ground, touchdown progression should be headed his way at some point. Of the 46 RBs with 75+ rushes thus far, only seven have found the end zone less often.
Wide Receiver
Nico Collins (CPT or FLEX)
Jayden Higgins (FLEX)
Xavier Hutchinson (FLEX)
Collins is the backbone here, drawing 25% of the looks when healthy. Given the nature of the offense, he's remarkably consistent, posting 50+ yards in every full game but one. The question, then, is how much ceiling we should assign him tonight. In recent years, the Steve Spagnuolo-led Chiefs defense has stood as a tough matchup for wideouts, but 2025 has been a bit leakier. They've been good-not-great against top receivers; just last week, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens combined to turn 22 looks into 200 yards and a touchdown.
Sadly, Collins has far less help than those Cowboys in drawing attention away from him. Dalton Schultz is a reliable tight end, and Higgins has emerged as a viable No. 2, but neither frightens defenses. (In fact, no other Houston wideout has cleared 65 yards since Week Eight.) Collins is a playmaker, but Spagnuolo will roll heavy coverage his way, so any ceiling will likely have to come from sheer will.
Higgins has muscled his way into 28 targets over the past 4 weeks, a great sign for his future as the No. 2 option. There's a lot to like about his profile as a big body who wins both inside and out. Still, if Collins struggles for upside as the alpha, then doubly so for Higgins, whose 5-65 from last week may be the best this offense can offer him right now. Hutchinson, who plays a similar snap count, offers nearly the same rostership-to-upside value as the No. 3.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz (FLEX)
Schultz is a reliable set of hands who wows no one with his 6.7 aDOT or 9.4 yards per catch. From a Showdown standpoint, what's concerning was his Week Eight, in which Schultz managed just 24 yards on 3 looks while Nico Collins sat. That doesn't suggest the kind of locked-in volume we'd need to draw upside from the low-impact Schultz.