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LUCKY CHARMS

If fantasy football were a bowl of Lucky Charms cereal, the Oakland Raiders running backs would be the soggy sweetened oat bits left over at the bottom of the bowl. With their respective average draft positions both outside the top 30 running backs, it seems very few people think Maurice Jones-Drew (“MJD”), or Darren McFadden (“DMC”) can emerge as a decent starting option this year.

At this point in their careers, it's easy to understand why a DMC/MJD timeshare fails to elicit thoughts of orange stars, green clovers, and purple horseshoes in the minds of fantasy owners. But despite their many on-field failures last season, the Raiders were a surprisingly good running team (6th in yards per rush, 7th in rushing touchdowns) – and there are reasons to believe it can continue.

Both McFadden and Jones-Drew have a lot to prove in training camp if one of them wishes to pull ahead in the race for lead back duties, but there are some context clues leading me to believe the situation will not end up the rigid platoon most experts are projecting. If you're willing to put on your waist-high rubber boots and wade through the silver and black muck, you may just uncover a steeply discounted RB2 in the Oakland backfield.

The Raiders Surprising Running Game

Before we get to McFadden and Jones-Drew specifically, allow me to reiterate:

The Raiders were a good rushing team last season.

Despite a hot garbage passing offense that finished 24th in yards and 27th in completion rate, the Raiders ranked 12th in the NFL with 2,000 team rushing yards, and 6th with a 4.6 yards-per-rush average.

Oakland owed a chunk of their success on the ground to dual threat QB Terrelle Pryor, who accounted for 29% of the team's rushing yards by himself. Pryor's wheels also helped stretch opposing defenses on zone read plays, which helped open bigger lanes for the Raiders’ running backs.

In the nine games started by Pryor, Raiders backs averaged 4.73 YPA compared to 4.32 in the games started by Matt Flynn and Matt McGloin. While the Raiders certainly won’t be running the read option with Matt Schaub behind center this year, it’s encouraging that 4.32 YPA would still have been good for a top-12 finish in 2013 - not too shabby.

The best fantasy story to emerge from Oakland’s run game last year was undoubtedly Rashad Jennings’ huge second half. From Weeks 9 to 15 (the weeks he was both starting and healthy) Jennings posted per game averages of 89.3 rushing yards, 4.76 YPA, and two total TDs per game - good for the fifth most fantasy points at RB over that stretch.

The most encouraging part of Jennings' ascension for the Raiders' 2014 prospects, is that he did most of his damage with McGloin – a traditional pocket passer – at QB. In the six games played by McGloin, Jennings averaged a healthy 18.73 fantasy points per game.

Why Success On The Ground Can Continue

Jennings’ strong finish and the Raiders surprising rushing efficiency were great stories last season, but can you bank on a repeat? The improvements the Raiders made in the offseason suggest they could actually improve on the ground this season.

A Better Defense – Oakland allowed 28.3 points per game in 2013, fourth worst in the NFL. As a result, they lost seven games by 10 or more points, hampering their ability to stick with the run. The additions of Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, and rookie Khalil Mack give Oakland a formidable pass rush on paper. Cornerbacks Tarell Brown and Carlos Rogers, while no longer in their primes, represent significant upgrades to a secondary that was torched for the fifth most passing yards last year. The improved defense should allow Oakland to stick more closely to their desired game plan this season.

A Better Quarterback – There’s a greater than zero percent chance Matt Schaub has completely fallen off the fantasy map, but having an accomplished veteran behind center should help keep defenses from stacking the box against the run. From 2007 to 2012, Schaub ranked 9th in passing yards, 11th in passing TDs, and 8th in yards per pass attempt (minimum 200 attempts). It's possible his talent evaporated overnight, but it's equally possible he was overdue for a change of scenery. For what it's worth, the Raiders' coaches have been impressed enough with Schaub to allow him the freedom to change plays at the line of scrimmage. Hopefully, having the ability to adjust to opposing defenses on the fly will prevent many of the back breaking interceptions that came to define Schaub's 2013.

A Better Offensive Line – Thankfully, the Raiders' 26th ranked run blocking unit from last year (per Football Outsiders) potentially returns only one starter (C Stefen Wisniewski). They did lose LT Jared Veldheer, who may have been the team's best player. But considering Veldheer only played five games last season, his replacement - Donald Penn - actually qualifies as an upgrade. Former NY Jets RT Austin Howard was a solid signing, and the Raiders should get contributions from high pedigree youngsters Menelik Watson and Gabe Jackson. Overall, the Tony Sparano-coached group is deeper, more versatile, and better suited for offensive coordinator Greg Olson's power scheme than the unit that took the field last season.

The Case for Darren McFadden

It's awfully tough to make a case for Darren McFadden now that he's taken a blow torch to championship aspirations for three consecutive seasons. Last year, DMC rushed for just 379 yards on 114 carries, making it the second straight year he sported a 3.3 YPA average. In fact, he was held to 3.0 YPA or less in seven out of the ten games he played.

McFadden predictably injured his lower extremities again, making it six years in a row he's failed to eclipse 13 games played. “Injury prone” players often turn out to be terrific values in fantasy drafts, but after injuring his toe (2008), knee (2009), hamstring, toe again (2010), shoulder, foot (2011), ankle (2012), hamstring a third time, and ankle again (2013), it's certainly fair to wonder if McFadden can ever luck his way into a healthy season.

Still, at the risk of inevitably being burned by McFadden one last time, I'm confident he represents a sneaky mid-round value in drafts this year.

• Was He Really That Bad Last Season? – McFadden started seven games in 2013. If you throw out the two games in which he only received five carries before being injured, he averaged 12.66 fantasy points per game in the other five starts. For context, Chris Johnson finished as the RB12 in standard scoring leagues last season with a 12.6 fantasy PPG average.
• He's Got Experience In Greg Olson's Scheme – Not only does McFadden have a year in Olson's system over MJD, we're only a year removed from the Raiders hiring Olson specifically to tailor the offense to DMC's strengths. Remember these thinly veiled quotes from head coach Dennis Allen regarding Olson's hiring?
• The Beat Writers Think He's The Guy – Paul Gutierrez of CSNBayArea.com expects McFadden to be the Week 1 starter, and Steve Corkran of the Contra Costa Times recently stated he expects DMC to lead the Raiders in carries and yards from scrimmage. 
• He's Got Youth On His Side – McFadden will be 27 years old when the season starts, and has only 883 career carries. By comparison, MJD is an ancient 29 with over 1,800 carries on his odometer. There's no denying DMC has the fresher legs of the duo, even if they do resemble a pair of broom sticks wearing cleats.
• He's More Explosive – Last season, DMC broke a run of 15 or more yards on 4.38% of his rushes compared to only 2.99% for MJD. The league average rate for runners who broke at least one 15-yard run was 4.59%.
• He's Elite At The Goal Line – Since 2008, the only RB with a higher TD conversion rate than McFadden's 53.85% on carries from inside the five yard line is Lendale White at 56% (minimum 25 carries). By comparison, MJD has converted 36.23% in the same span. Even if the Raiders' backfield does turn out to be an even platoon, I'd give DMC the edge for goal line work.
• The Price is Right – Maybe this is the year he puts it all together, and maybe it isn't. But McFadden hasn't been available without spending a top 40 overall pick (or much higher) in three years. Now he's barely a top 40 running back, available in the late eighth round. There's no longer a steep opportunity cost associated with striking out on McFadden.

The Case For Against Maurice Jones-Drew

If you're excited about investing in Maurice Jones-Drew this season, chances are you're expecting him to fall into 20 touches per game as soon as McFadden is stricken by calamity again. It's tough to find fault with that line of reasoning (see McFadden's injury history above), but do you even want 20 touches per game from Maurice Jones-Drew at this stage of his career?

• History Is Not On His Side – As previously mentioned, MJD is 29 years old, and has piled up 1,804 carries over the course of eight NFL seasons. Only eight times in the last decade has a running back age 29 or older posted over 1,000 rushing yards, after taking at least 1,800 handoffs through his first eight seasons. The average number of carries taken by the RBs in those eight 1,000 yard seasons was 298. Even if you think MJD still has something left in the tank, the odds of him approaching 300 carries -- a number he's reached only twice in his eight year career -- are somewhere between slim and none.
• The Decline Is Upon Us – I'd be more inclined to bet MJD could hold off Father Time if he had shown any semblance of a second gear last season. Jones-Drew himself was disgusted with what he saw on film, recently telling the LA Times he contemplated retirement because "he didn't feel like he had it anymore." After Jones-Drew posted the worst YPA of any running back who averaged 15 rushes per game last season, I'm not arguing with his assessment.
• His Contract Is Irrelevant – I've seen it suggested on some sites that MJD is the favorite to start over McFadden because the Raiders handed him a $7.5 million dollar free agent contract. The truth is he's only guaranteed $2.4 million (with $1.2 million due as a roster bonus), or about $750,000 more than McFadden will make this year. Both of these guys are getting paid backup money. The notion the Raiders are somehow obligated to start MJD due to his contract is silly. If they should feel obligated to do anything, it's run McFadden into the ground for stealing $60 million from them on his rookie deal.
• The Price Is Wrong – MJD, despite his limited upside, is being drafted a full round ahead of McFadden. It's not an obscene price to pay to find out for sure if he's got another respectable season left in him, but I'd rather cast my lot with guys like Marques Colston, Cam Newton, Jordan Reed, or Eric Decker in the seventh round, and then take the Raiders actual starting RB in the eighth.

McFadden Positives

• McFadden is younger, faster, and more explosive than MJD, with far more tread left on his tires
• He's experienced in OC Greg Olson's power run scheme
• The Raiders' beat writers are in agreement - he's the favorite to open the season as the starter

McFadden Negatives

• He is going to get hurt
• His rare physical gifts have not translated to on-field production since 2010
• The possibility exists the Raiders have given up on McFadden as a lead back, and intend to use him only as a complementary outside runner, with MJD taking on the bulk of the work between the tackles

Jones-Drew Positives

• Even if he plays behind McFadden, he's one very likely injury away from inheriting a significant workload
• Jones-Drew is another year removed from the lisfranc injury that cut his 2012 season short. A full offseason of healing and training could very well rejuvenate him
• He's an accomplished starting running back in the NFL, leading the league in rushing as recently as 2011. We cannot say the same for Darren McFadden

Jones-Drew Negatives

• He fell off a statistical cliff last season
• At age 29, and with over 1,800 career carries, the odds of a rebound are not in his favor
• Hyphenated last names are for females

Final Thoughts

MJD may resemble the Lucky Charms leprechaun, but I don't see a pot of gold at the end of that rainbow. At this stage of his career, Jones-Drew is a volume dependent, low-ceiling option who would need a significant injury to McFadden just to meet seventh round value.

McFadden, on the other hand, still has the potential to swing your league championship if everything goes just right. Health permitting, he has the opportunity to return RB2 value, even with MJD cutting into his workload. If MJD gets hurt (not out of the realm of possibility), or McFadden looks good early behind the improved o-line, his ceiling is RB1. Sure it's a long shot, but by the eighth round of your draft, you're essentially throwing darts at the running back position anyway. Why not take a home run swing on the one capable of becoming a top producer?

Projections – Darren McFadden

Projections – Maurice Jones-Drew

Around The Web

John Evans at FantasySharks.com says McFadden has more upside, but you'll probably want MJD after four or five weeks:

“McFadden has more juice left in his legs and unless he gets hurt on a kick return, he should break enough big plays in the preseason to win the starter’s mantle. After all, Oakland added run blockers in Austin Howard, Donald Penn and rookie Gabe Jackson. There will be bigger holes for him to apply his 4.4 speed to.
Looking at the average draft position data available at FantasyFootballCalculator.com , Jones-Drew is going at 7.10 (seventh round, 10th pick) and McFadden at 8.08. Jones-Drew is the safer, high-floor and low-ceiling choice. Fantasy owners figure he has a better shot at remaining healthy and reasonably productive than the historically fragile McFadden. Four or five weeks in, you’ll probably want the little guy.”