Every year leading up to draft season, there are players described as having “high floors." There are others who are more risky, "high-ceiling" players. This exercise will show that a mix of both is the best way to optimize your draft.
This strategy will keep your opponents guessing. Also, having some high-floor players will keep your team competitive when your "boom or bust" guys don't boom. I believe a championship team can't just have safe players thoughout. Every successful fantasy team has players that can win them a week almost on their own.
For our purposes here, we'll be picking sixth in a 12-team PPR league. We'll look at players whose Consensus ADP's (as of August 10) are within a reasonable number of slots of our pick. At the end, we'll have two teams from which we'll pick the best mix of players (using one per round). As the draft progresses, we can stray a bit more from ADP because variability increases as drafts progress.
Rounds 1-3
Nearly everyone in the first round provides a high floors in the form of either: a) being part of an elite offense; or b) being the main asset in a mid-tier offense. Our high floor drafter likes the comfort of a player in an elite offense like Eddie Lacy. However, players like Adrian Peterson and Odell Beckham Jr have displayed the ability to win any single fantasy week with their respective ceilings. Similar to those players is Julio Jones, who is a great bet for 100+ receptions in new Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan's offense. The younger Shanahan is famous for force-feeding his number one receiver throughout his career, making Jones' ceiling higher than most are accounting for at this point.
As an aside, I love that fantasy football is a game that can be played (and won) by members of the fairer sex as well as us guys. However, for the purposes of this article, the masculine pronouns ("his," "he," "him," etc.) will be used universally to incorporate all fantasy footballers. I'm not a sexist, just a writer trying to make efficient use of his words.
In Round 2, our high ceiling player would like follow up his wide receiver pick with a running back like Jeremy Hill. In Hue Jackson's system, the sky is the limit for a "workhorse" running back like Hill. Our high floor drafter, meanwhile, sees a solid receiver like A.J. Green fall to him in Round 2 and pounces at the chance to have a target hog, even if Green plays for a less-than-premium offense in Cincinnati. Round 3 sees our high floor player have a number of viable options. An aging player in a premier offense like Frank Gore is an easy selection here. The high ceiling player sees a younger commodity in an offense on the rise and grabs Jordan Matthews to bolster the wide receiver corps already being headed by Julio Jones.
ROUNDS 4-6
The high floor drafter sees Russell Wilson as a solid quarterback option with scrambling ability that provides a decent weekly point total even on a bad passing day. The high ceiling drafter is someone who looks like for true difference-makers at their positions and sees Travis Kelce as someone with an overall TE1 ceiling. Yes, even with Rob Gronkowski out there, Kelce has an outside chance to be that player. His tools are elite, he was on a snap count last season that won't be in play this season, and he has a wide receiver on the team now to help open the middle of the field. It's not likely to happen, but it's possible, and that's what the high ceiling drafter is looking for. Kelce's TE2-3 potential is obviously well within reach given the expectations being produced by his ADP.
In Round 5, our high floor drafter sees that he only has one wide receiver and remedies that situation by selecting Sammy Watkins. Watkins is on a run-first offense with a poor quarterback situation, but he will dominate targets when the team must throw, and a high-floor (i.e. "cautious") drafter doesn't want to be behind the 8-ball in terms of positional need. The high ceiling player is less motivated by position and selects the ultimate "boom/bust" receiver in Martavis Bryant. In Round 6, our high floor player selects a tight end in Martellus Bennett. The high ceiling owner has a strong team but only has one running back so far. As tantalizing as Allen Robinson is, he selects Ameer Abdullah instead, hoping the rookie can overtake an already-banged-up Joique Bell and dominate Detroit's backfield.
ROUNDS 7-9
In Round 7, our high floor drafter sees a solid veteran in Roddy White who will be a somewhat predictable commodity to be his WR3. The high ceiling drafter sees LeGarrette Blount and jumps at the chance to have a player who, when in a New England uniform, has shown the propensity to rack up multi-touchdown games as if the feat were quite easy to do. Round 8 sees our high floor owner aim for depth with the selection of Doug Martin, one of the few remaining starting running backs remaining. The high ceiling owner sees nice value at quarterback here in Ryan Tannehill. At QB13, Tannehill has top-six potential at the position, making this the ideal high ceiling selection.
Round 9 provides us with a nice dichotomy between two NFL teammates. The high floor owner selects the veteran Steve Smith, who should soak up targets in Baltimore, especially early in the season with so few proven options on the team. Late in the season, however, Smith could slow down like he did in 2014. That would leave the door open for rookie first-round pick Breshad Perriman. Perriman is a deep threat and provides nice size, which should be a red zone asset on a team that appears to lack one right now.
Evaluation
Typically, at this point in a draft, the remaining players are "lottery ticket" types before owners start selecting defenses and kickers, so let's examine the two rosters as they stand now, both by draft order and by position:
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Both of these rosters are strong, but the best fantasy footballers don't exclusively select just one type of player. They mix predictable contributors with boom/bust players. So let's take a look at both rosters and select one player per round from each to form the "ultimate" team.
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The purpose of this exercise is illutrated just at the receiver position alone. The ultimate team blends the high ceiling of a young player like Bryant with the reliable production of veterans White and Smith. Choosing Tannehill over Wilson at quarterback seems like a wise decision as it allows us to choose Kelce over Bennett at tight end. The gap between those tight ends seems to be larger than the gap between Wilson and Tannehill when considering the weekly ceiling of Tannehill in his second year in the Bill Lazor offense.
In terms of PPR ADP, this team starts QB13, RB10, RB13, WR4, WR24, TE3, and has flex options of RB27, WR33, and WR40. That's a solid start, and with six members coming from the high ceiling team, it could end up better it appears on paper.
Parting Thoughts
Do this exercise before your draft. Grab an ADP list (there's one sortable and customizable by multiple sources available here on the site), and perform it for your draft slot. If you're sixth or close to it, I already did it for you. If you're not, pick an acceptable range such as one to three slots either way around your pick and determine the range of players that will most likely be available to you.
While flexibility is key in any draft, you'll find that most of your preparation will help during the process. For instance, there will inevitably be more than one player you like in a certain round. Should the player that do not pick slide to the next round, you'll definitely know who to pick in that spot (and you'll get great value at that). Remember: flexibility is key, but preparation leads to domination!
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com
