Dynasty Buckets, A Different Look at Tiers: Tight Ends

Below, you'll find tight ends grouped by bucket, along with the tier in which they currently reside in the Footballguys Dynasty Rankings for a little added fine-tuning.

We did our initial run of tight end buckets back on May 20.

For this second edition, I've used the comments to highlight players who have had recent news out of OTAs, or who have moved up or down since our first go-round.

Other Positions: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver

We're still a pretty long way from meaningful information. At this point, it's just nice to know who is signed, who is healthy, and who seems to be using the offseason to try out new roles or settle into old ones. I've noted in the lists here where a player has moved up or down within the tiers in our consensus rankings since last month. While it's worth noting, don't go too crazy trying to analyze it. At this time of year, people tend to make small adjustments to their rankings when small pieces of news emerge from these camps. Those tweaks can move a player up or down in the consensus tiers, but you shouldn't take that movement to be all that meaningful in June. A guy who has jumped a tier this month could easily fall a tier next month. So it's worth noting when a player moves up or down a bucket or tier in June, but don't overreact to it.

That being said, it is impossible not to notice the sheer amount of movement between tiers within each bucket at the tight end position this month. There was much more at this position than there was at quarterback or running back. Does that signal volatility at the position?

Maybe.

In all of the years I've played fantasy football - and there are more than I'd care to admit - tight end has been the position that's always both top-heavy and shallow. That's become even more pronounced over the past 10 years or so as (1) NFL offenses began to use tight ends more and more as offensive weapons and, in turn, (2) fantasy leagues began to go to tight end premium scoring. While those two things have combined, at least in my experience, to create a slightly deeper pool of fantasy-worthy tight ends, they have also combined to really lay bare the gulf between the difference-making tight ends at the top and the just-another-guys that tend to make up the rest of the tight end rankings.

My hunch, and I've got nothing to back this up, is that when you see this kind of movement in these rankings in June it's because us Super Obsessed Dynasty Guys are reacting to some of the offseason news as we try to figure out which players from that Pool of Average have a chance to jump a level or two and become difference-making fantasy assets for your dynasty rosters. At most positions, this can be folly in June. At tight end, it is a necessary exercise because there are just so few of them that can make a real difference for you. If you aren't out in front of who the next one will be to break into that upper tier, it'll be too late to acquire him cheaply once he does.

That being said, all of that tier movement doesn't change our buckets very much this month because the truth remains that after the top 4 or 5 guys, it's the Wild Wild West when it comes to consistent, startable production at tight end.

A few years ago, I built a huge sandbox for my kids. I buried a half dozen geodes and about 30 little dinosaurs in there for them to come across as they play. Three years later, they have found all of the dinosaurs and exactly one geode. When they find the plastic little dinosaur,s they're happy for a minute. Then they toss them aside and keep looking for a geode.

Now, you might be asking, "Josh, did you fall and hit your head? Why are we talking about dinosaurs and geodes?" That, friend, is a fair question. 

The answer, besides "geodes" being a fun word to say, is that while at most positions I am willing to roll out a couple of dinosaurs, at tight end I want the geode. In today's dynasty landscape, a weekly advantage at tight end is huge. Can you contend, and even win it all, without one? Sure. But a top-tier tight end can operate to cover other holes on your roster and carry you through weeks when those holes are big enough to drive a Ditka through.

In fact, I believe it was noted tight end aficionado Patrick Henry who said, "Give me Bowers, McBride, Hockenson, or LaPorta, or give me death."  He was right then, he's right now, and we should listen to him.

What Henry knew, and what we're finding out, is that there aren't many geodes buried in that tight end sandbox. Obviously, the best and cheapest way to acquire one is before they break out. So even though our buckets stay pretty steady this month, when you see all of the movement between tiers or individual ranks this time of year, remember that as we fiddle with our rankings, we are really just prospecting in hopes we can find that next breakout tight end before everyone else starts digging.

Starters (with Footballguys tier in parentheses)

• Brock Bowers, LV(1)
• Trey McBride, ARI (1)

Even within a bucket full of starters, these two stand alone.

• T.J. Hockenson, MIN (2)
• Sam LaPorta, DET (2)
• Tyler Warren, IND (3) Tier 2 last month
• George Kittle, SF (2)
• David Njoku, CLE (3) Tier 2 last month
• Mark Andrews, BAL (3) Tier 2 last month
• Tucker Kraft, GB (3) Tier 2 last month
• Jonnu Smith, MIA (3) Tier 2 last month
• Evan Engram, DEN (3) Tier 2 last month
• Colston Loveland, CHI (2) 

I moved Loveland into the starter bucket this month. I don't want to get carried away with any rookie, especially a rookie tight end, but there is a significant chance that Loveland snags a LaPorta type role in the Bears offense. Don't believe me? That's ok. I don't blame you. However, Matt Waldman discussed it recently here, and if you don't believe him, I'm not sure I can help you. I think Waldman's assumption about usage is correct, and if we see Loveland as LaPorta and Cole Kmet as Brock Wright, then Loveland becomes a startable asset, likely based on volume alone, while Kmet becomes much more touchdown-dependent and volatile. 

Same as last month, LaPorta and Hockenson are much closer to Bowers and McBride than they are to Kraft, Smith, and Engram. Warren, LaPorta, and Hockenson are the three most likely to jump to the Bowers/McBride level, but I wouldn't consider that the most likely outcome for any of them. For now, they represent a nice group of starters before we see a drop. What I wonder most about this group is how far Warren and Loveland can climb.

Rotation Bucket

• Dalton Kincaid, BUF (3) Tier 2 last month
• Kyle Pitts, ATL (3) Tier 2 last month
• Pat Freiermuth, PIT (3) Tier 2 last month
• Dallas Goedert, PHI (3) Tier 2 last month
• Jake Ferguson, DAL (4) Tier 2 last month
• Travis Kelce, KC (4) Tier 2 last month
• Mason Taylor, NYJ (4) Tier 3 last month
• Hunter Henry, NE (5) Tier 3 last month
• Cole Kmet, CHI (FA) Tier 4 last month
• Mike Gesicki, CIN (FA) Tier 4 last month
• Zach Ertz, WAS (FA) Tier 4 last month
• Chig Okonkwo, TEN (FA) Tier 4 last month
• Juwan Johnson, NO (FA) Tier 4 last month
• Noah Fant, SEA (FA) Tier 4 last month

I think it's at least noteworthy that Ferguson dropped two tiers in our consensus ranks. That's likely a reasonable reaction to the George Pickens trade. 

I might be too high on Taylor, but like we noted last month, he has the pedigree and a chance to be a top 2 or 3 target on his team. There are worse players to put your chips on if you're betting on who out of this group could jump to the starter bucket.

I remain in on Pitts, though I really need to see it this year. He and Taylor are my two favorite dynasty holds in this bucket. They're also two of the youngest, so that's not all that profound.

Young Upside/Blocked Bucket

• Isaiah Likely, BAL (4) Tier 3 last month
• Brenton Strange, JAX (4) Tier 3 last month
• Elijah Arroyo, SEA (5) Tier 3 last month
• Terrance Ferguson, LAR (4) Tier 3 last month
• Ja'Tavion Sanders, CAR (FA) Tier 4 last month
• Harold Fannin Jr., CLE (5) Tier 4 last month
• Theo Johnson, NYG (FA) Tier 4 last month
• Ben Sinnott, WAS (FA) Tier 4 last month
• Gunnar Helm (FA) Tier 5 last month
• Oronde Gadsden II, LAC (FA) Tier 5 last month
• Michael Mayer, LV (FA) 

I noted last month that I had to bend my general rule of three years or less of experience to keep Likely in this bucket. Well, don't tell anyone, but I'm doing it again. He's just too young with too much upside for me to consider him mere veteran depth. But I'll caution that if he seems inevitable, then we're all probably wrong. Make sure you aren't letting the myth overcome the reality.

I think it's interesting to note that Arroyo, Ferguson, Sanders, and Fannin all jumped at least a tier in our consensus rankings since last month. In fact, Arroyo and Sanders jumped two tiers. There are a decent number of veteran tight ends still scoring points for dynasty teams. As those guys age out, it is most likely that players from this bucket emerge to produce points in their place.

Veteran Depth Bucket

• Cade Otton, TB (4) Tier 3 last month
• Dalton Schultz, HOU (FA) Tier 4 last month
• Tyler Higbee, LAR (FA)
• Tyler Conklin, LAC (FA)
• Taysom Hill, NO (FA)
• Dawson Knox, BUF (FA)
• Will Dissly, LAC (FA)

Last month, I considered whether I was too low on Otton. This month, he drops a tier in our consensus ranks. I think I'm comfortable keeping him in this bucket this month. There are a lot of mouths to feed in the Tampa passing game.

Scratch-Off Tickets Bucket

• Noah Gray, KC (FA) Tier 4 last month
• Luke Musgrave, GB (FA)
• Cade Stover, HOU (FA)
• Mitchell Evans, CAR (FA)
• Luke Lachey, HOU (FA)
• Luke Schoonmaker, DAL (FA)

Conclusion

It's no secret that if a tight end is not one of the top two or three options in his team's passing game, then his production will be volatile and he'll be tougher to count on from week to week. I tend to prioritize that status above all else when I'm evaluating a tight end. If he's good enough to command that kind of target share on his NFL team, he's good enough to start for my dynasty team.

As always, if you adopt any of these concepts, remember to be flexible with them and to pick and choose the parts that work best for your leagues and your style of play. These buckets work for me, but I encourage you to take it and make it better.

Thanks for playing along. Check in next week for our updated wide receiver buckets.