The first installment of this metric-based NFL draft series brushed broad strokes over the running back position before the all-important combine and pro days athletic drills. This follow-up looks at a running back's college receiving game production and how it shapes their role at the NFL level.
Here is a list of drafted running backs of recent years with receiving scores of less than 30 in the age-weighted prospect database (1-100 scale):
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (notable UDFA)
2006
The theme of these players, by and large, is their limited use as passing-down backs despite moments of relevance within their respective depth charts. While college backs can round out their games in their early career transition to the NFL, it is certainly not a high-percentage bet. Here are the 2013 draft class backs that joined the above group with a limited receiving resume from their college careers:
Michael Ford (notable UDFA)
Of this group (and almost the entire historical group in the section above), Andre Ellington looks like the outlier. He had 39 receptions as a rookie for Arizona as the pass-catching option. Veteran Rashard Mendenhall was deployed as the volume-soaking option between the tackles and at 5’9” and 199 pounds was Ellington’s initial role in the NFL really going to be an early-down bruiser? Unlikely. His way onto the field was through the passing game and Ellington expanded was he did in college in that regard.
Now for the 2014 draft class results, in the lowest age-weighted receiving score tier:
*Receiving score in parenthesis*
Tim Cornett (29)
Terrance West (29)
Tre Mason (28)
George Atkinson III (23)
Adam Muema (23)
Lache Seastrunk (18)
Terrance Cobb (16)
Tyler Gaffney (14)
Silas Redd (13)
James Wilder, Jr. (11)
Henry Josey (10)
Carlos Hyde (8)
Jerome Smith (7)
Andre Williams (2)
Alfred Blue (2)
A good blend of names on this list from notable small school backs like West and Cobb to prominent BCS conference backs like Mason, Hyde, Gaffney, and Williams. Carlos Hyde has drawn comparisons to Eddie Lacy, but their college receiving marks are pretty far apart. Lacy’s age-weighted receiving production is about triple that of Hyde and even in that range, Lacy’s PPR upside is probably somewhat limited in the NFL.
Doing a quick database search for backs with a score within three points of Hyde’s paltry eight, returns some rather pedestrian historical results for catching passes in the NFL:
*Career-high for receptions in a season in parenthesis
Mike Gillislee (0)
Alfred Morris (11)
Delone Carter (5)
Tatum Bell (24)
Julius Jones (35)
Travis Stephens (0)
Brian Allen (0)
Leonard Henry (3)
Travis Henry (43)
Correll Buckhalter (31)
Frank Moreau (0)
Chad Morton (30)
Overall, not a ringing endorsement for the odds that Hyde becomes a lasting passing game producer. Of this list, Buckhalter is the only real option that sustained his production with more than 20 receptions in a handful of seasons. The rest had a random season or two in the high teens or their peak season only. In terms of build, Morris, Allen, Travis Henry, and Moreau resemble Hyde the most. Travis Henry the lone option of that group with a season even above 20 catches.
If only final college seasons were accounted for, Lache Seastrunk would be one of the very rare backs to not have a single reception on his resume in this projection model. Baylor downright refused to throw the ball to their backs, which makes Seastrunk an interesting case to monitor going forward. Gaffney and Wilder were easy backs to pigeon-hole as two-down options in the NFL with the eye test. The statistics back that assumption up with the odds heavily stacked against them expanding their regular usage roles.
To put some odds and probability to these statistics, here are some connections between college receiving score and becoming a VBD-producing fantasy back, according to profootballreference.com, in their NFL career to-date:
*Through the 2011 draft class*
Receiving score of >80: 56%
Receiving score of >70: 39%
Receiving score of >60: 35%
Receiving score of >50: 27%
Receiving score of >40: 25%
Receiving score of >30: 22%
Receiving score of
Having a greater than 50-50 shot at developing into a VBD-producing back is a stark improvement from the less than 30% probability of those below-average (less than 50) in the metric. In the 'new NFL' where passing is on the upswing, the probability spread for this metric would make sense to widen. Of the historical backs with a sub-30 score, Ladainian Tomlinson is the lone back that turned into a regular benefactor of PPR scoring in fantasy. The other ‘hits’ in that receiving score range are of the two-down variety. Expanding to backs in the 30-40 range draws in recent notables like Lamar Miller and Kendall Hunter.
Going in the opposite direction, to the highlight group with receiving scores of 80 or more, here are the included prospects from the 2012 and 2013 classes:
*Prospect receiving score in parenthesis*
2012
Trent Richardson (86)
Daryl Richardson (89)
Brandon Bolden (notable UDFA, 85)
Prior to his ups and downs in 2013, Trent Richardson was a PPR monster as a rookie, one of the few backs in fantasy with legit 10-touchdown and 50-reception upside. Being a top-five draft pick does not hurt, but Cleveland was not shy about using Richardson on all three downs. Daryl Richardson was more of a PPR option than rugged between-the-tackles option when he had some pre-Zac Stacy run as the lead-ish back in St.Louis. Bolden and Polk were drafted by teams (New England and Philadelphia) that are not shy about using backs in the passing game. Bolden even worked in the Shane Vereen-light role when Vereen was on the shelf with injury.
2013
Giovani Bernard (94)
Marcus Lattimore (93)
Joseph Randle (92)
Theo Riddick (98)
Giovani Bernard came out of the gate with added PPR value as a rookie, a great sign going forward. Lattimore is a wild card with his continued injury recovery, but many point to him as the favorite, if healthy, of the San Francisco backs to supplant Frank Gore as the future three-down option. His receiving production at South Carolina agrees with that sentiment. Randle and Riddick were both later round selections, but chosen by pass-happy teams that do not hesitate to pepper their backs with targets.
*Ordered by overall score with receiving mark in parenthesis*
2014
Ka’Deem Carey (87)
Antonio Andrews (94)
Vintavious Cooper (87)
De’Anthony Thomas (97)
Marion Grice (93)
Charles Sims (99)
Trey Watts (92)
De’Anthony Thomas would be an obvious guess in this group. If he makes it in the NFL for long it will be as a special teams and offensive spark plug more than high volume option considering his size. Charles Sims has a 99 age-weighted receiving score. As one could guess, on the 1-to-100 scale, that is pretty darn rare. Some of the notable historical prospects with scores in range of Sims (and Thomas-Andrews-Grice trio) include Bernard Scott, DeMarco Murray, Brian Westbrook, Mewelde Moore, Brian Leonard, Danny Woodhead, and Reggie Bush. That is a pretty good who’s who of the last 15 years for passing game prowess in the NFL.
Sims’ lofty score is not all that much ahead of a few other names on the 2014 list. Carey is at 87 and Grice, Watts, and Andrews are between 90 and 95 each. At a minimum, the 2014 running back class is highly likely to find some hidden PPR gems based on their college track records.
Not to leave out the developmental dynasty crowd or just those that love looking ahead at potential future classes, here are the top age-adjusted receiving scores from draft-eligible backs for 2015:
Todd Gurley, Georgia (90)
Keith Marshall, Georgia (74)
Mike Davis, South Carolina (73)
Tevin Coleman, Indiana (70)
T.J. Yeldon, Alabama (67)
Duke Johnson, Miami (61)
Some of them may not declare a year from now and they still have at least one college season of data to alter these marks, but they are on the right track for PPR relevance at the next level.