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After amassing more than 7,000 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns as a quarterback for the Louisville Cardinals, Jay Gruden played one season in the defunct World League of American Football before going on to enjoy a successful eight-year career in the Arena Football League. During his AFL career, he won four ArenaBowl titles and was later named the fourth greatest player in AFL history.
Gruden's coaching career began in 1997 as an Offensive Coordinator for the AFL's Nashville Kats and he even became the Head Coach of another AFL franchise, the Orlando Predators, before choosing to return to the field as the starting quarterback of the Predators. He soon found himself back on the sideline with coaching stints in the AFL, UFL, and also as on Offensive Assistant for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where his older brother, Jon Gruden, was the Head Coach.
In 2011, the younger Gruden finally broke through into the NFL on his own when he became the Offensive Coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals:
Offensive Production of Cincinnati with Gruden as Offensive Coordinator
| Year | Plays | Rank | Points | Rank | Yds | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 1,015 | 18 | 344 | 18 | 5,118 | 20 |
| 2012 | 1,016 | 16 | 391 | 12 | 5,323 | 23 |
| 2013 | 1,097 | 6 | 430 | 6 | 5,891 | 10 |
| Avg | 1,043 | 13.3 | 388 | 12 | 5,444 | 17.7 |
As you may notice above, the Cincinnati offense displayed a marked improvement in each of Gruden's three seasons and that success was parlayed into his appointment as the Head Coach in Washington. Much of that year-to-year improvement can be attributed to a young, improving group of playmakers and the organization making a concerted effort to surround their quarterback with weapons.
Perhaps Washington took notice of Cincinnati's approach; after bringing in Gruden, they signed Andre Roberts and then brought in DeSean Jackson later on, which will provide Robert Griffin III III with the best group of receivers he's had in his short career. To find out what we can expect from Griffin III and Co. under Gruden's leadership, let us break down those three seasons with the Bengals:
Playcalling OF CINCINNATI WITH GRUDEN vs. griffin iii's two seasons in washington
| Gruden | WAS 12-13 | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass Attempts Per Game | 34.6 | 32.9 |
| Rush Attempts Per Game | 28.5 | 30.4 |
| Pass % | 54.9% | 52.0% |
| Rush % | 45.1% | 48.0% |
| Total Plays | 65.2 | 65.7 |
When comparing Gruden's Cincinnati offenses with the Washington offenses in Griffin III's first two seasons, the total plays per game are similar at approximately 65 plays. However, Gruden has displayed a greater propensity to pass the football - a trait that has led many analysts to classify him as "pass happy." Over the past three seasons, he has called passes on roughly 55% of the offensive plays compared to the 52% called by the Shanahans in Washington. For context, that difference would equate to approximately 30 extra pass attempts over a sixteen-game season.
With that being said, Gruden's offensive tendencies will not directly transpose to his new team. The make up of his current roster includes a more mobile quarterback and also the components for a more efficient power run game. Game flow will also play a major role in the play calling. When Washington made the playoffs in 2011, they totaled 442 pass attempts. Whereas they were forced to play from behind in a majority of their games last season and totaled 611 pass attempts. The team should be expected to be more competitive than last season and while Gruden may be classified as "pass-happy," the splits should ultimately remain consistent with Washington's 2012-2013 averages.
For a gauge on how Griffin III will be affected by the presence of his new head coach, let's examine Andy Dalton's progression under Gruden:
Dalton's Progression Under Gruden
| Year | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yds | YPA | TD | INTs | Rush | Yards | TDs | FPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 308 | 535 | 57.6% | 3,340 | 6.24 | 21 | 13 | 37 | 152 | 1 | 16 |
| 2012 | 335 | 540 | 62.0% | 3,578 | 6.63 | 28 | 16 | 47 | 120 | 4 | 12 |
| 2013 | 364 | 587 | 62.0% | 4,136 | 7.05 | 33 | 20 | 61 | 183 | 2 | 3 |
| Avg | 335.7 | 554.0 | 60.6% | 3,685 | 6.65 | 27.3 | 16.3 | 48 | 152 | 2.3 | 10.3 |
Dalton's passing numbers have essentially risen across the board in each season and his fantasy production followed suit, reaching a peak this past year when ranking as the third best quarterback in total fantasy points. Not only did Dalton's volume increase, but his yards-per-attempt displayed a drastic improvement. Additionaly, Dalton's carries also rose each season, which may have offered a glimpse into Gruden's desire for a dual-threat quarterback - an asset that he has surely found in Washington.
Griffin III's efficiency has trumped Dalton's as not only a runner (6.48 yards per carry compared to 3.14), but also as a passer (62.7 completion percentage and 7.55 yards-per-attempt for Griffin III). Health permitting, which has developed into a concern with Griffin III, he should easily surpass his career highs in passing yards (3211) and passing touchdowns (20) while nearing the efficiency of his rookie year when he had a completion rate of 65.6% and an 8.14 YPA. There is little doubt that the third-year passer, who ranked seventh among quarterbacks in total fantasy points as a rookie, will produce as as high-end QB1 while on the field.
Gruden's past history will also be helpful in determining the roles of Washington's receivers:
Average Passing Distribution in Cincinnati under Gruden
| Depth* | GP | Tgt | Rec | Yards | YPR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR1 | 15.7 | 147 | 87 | 1278 | 14.69 | 9.7 |
| WR2 | 15.3 | 82 | 51 | 657 | 12.96 | 6.0 |
| WR3 | 13.3 | 56 | 34 | 324 | 9.54 | 2.0 |
| TE | 14.7 | 80 | 55 | 598 | 10.87 | 5.0 |
*WR1, WR2, and WR3 were defined as the leading, second leading and third leading wide receivers in each season respectively. WR1 included A.J. Green's 2011, 2012, and 2013 seasons. WR2 included Jerome Simpson's 2011, Andrew Hawkins' 2012, and Marvin Jones' 2013 season. WR3 included Andre Caldwell's 2011, Marvin Jones' 2012, and Mohamed Sanu's 2013 season. TE included Jermaine Gresham's 2011, 2012, and 2013 seasons.
Although A.J. Green has averaged 165 targets over the past two seasons and Pierre Gar con notched 174 last season, Gar con will simply not merit the same market share any longer - this is due in one part to him not being an elite receiver and one part the improved receiving corps around him. The three-year WR1 averages of 147 targets and 87 receptions are a much more likely result for Gar con, who should see a notable improvement on his 11.9 YPC from 2013 while facing easier coverages. He can be viewed as a WR2 in fantasy, but value may be tough to come by due to last season's production.
Jackson instantly becomes Washington's biggest receiving threat and his effect on the offense will extend beyond his own. The mercurial receiver still holds fantasy value, albeit a drop-off from his value in Philadelphia, where he set career highs last season in receptions (82) and receiving yards (1332), while tieing his career high in receiving touchdowns (9). Jackson's career sixteen-game average of 65.7 receptions, which lies close to a split between last season's total and the WR2 averages above, is a realistic projection for the upcoming season. Using Jackson's career YPC and touchdown rate, 66 receptions would translate to 1133 receiving yards and 5.9 receiving touchdowns - production that would also place him in the fantasy WR2 conversation.
There is simply not enough room for every receiver to excel and Roberts, who signed on play opposite of Gar con, was pushed down the depth chart and finds himself undraftable in standard leagues. Jordan Reed, who developed into Griffin III's second option in the passing game last season, can also be expected to experience a drop-off now that he's been relegated to the team's third option in the passing game. The nine games in which Reed played last season would have translated to a 80-887-5.3 line over a full season and that has generated excitement, but it is tough to see him reeling in many more passes than Jermaine Gresham's career best of 64. While he may boast high-end TE1 talent, he currently grades as a low-end TE1 heading into the season.
Lastly, let us take a look at Gruden's history with running backs:
Running Back Averages IN CINCINNATI UNDER GRUDEN from 2011-2012
| Depth* | GP | Att | Yds | YPC | TD | Rec | Yds | YPR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB1 | 15.5 | 276 | 1081 | 3.92 | 6.0 | 19 | 93 | 5.03 | 0.0 |
| RB2 | 15.0 | 74 | 319 | 4.31 | 2.0 | 11 | 62 | 5.59 | 0.0 |
*RB1 and RB2 were defined as the leading and second leading rushers each season respectively. RB1 included Cedric Benson's 2011 and also BenJarvus Green-Ellis' 2012 seasons. RB2 included Bernard Scott's 2011 and Cedric Peerman's 2012 seasons.
The 2013 season, which was a committee between BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard, was excluded since the 2011 and 2012 seasons should provide a more accurate projection of the roles for Washington's current running backs. Washington's incumbent starting back, Alfred Morris, has averaged 306 carries per season while maintaining a sparkling 4.72 yards-per-carry in his two-year career. He will assuredly be more efficient than the RB1s included in the table above, however his usage should not stray far from the averages.
Morris only carried the ball 274 times last season, which is right in line with the above RB1 average, and he has also proven to be ill-equiped as a receiver, averaging a meager ten receptions per season. Furthermore, his new Head Coach provided little optimism of Morris improving in that aspect, being qouted as saying he "hopes (Morris) can get 20-25 catches" and that the back does not have "natural hands." Ultimately, Morris would be a risk to draft as more than and RB2 in standard leagues and is better suited as an RB3 in PPR formats. Morris' durability - he has yet to miss a game in his career - limits Roy Helu's value as a handcuff and the touches Helu receives as the backup will not be enough to merit fantasy relevance.
Universally, the arrival of Jay Gruden, along with the infusion of more talent, should make for an improved Washington offense in 2014. However, only Robert Griffin III III should be expected to benefit from a fantasy football standpoint; the other playmakes may all be hard pressed to reach their fantasy production of the previous year, namely Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed, and Alfred Morris.
You can find me on Twitter, @KyleWachtel, where I’d be happy to answer any of your questions.
