Background on Hundley
I've been hanging onto Brett Hundley since the Packers drafted him in the fifth round. If you want my scouting report, and an explanation why he dropped to the fifth round, read my free sample on Hundley at the Rookie Scouting Portfolio site.
If you want the executive summary with a K.I.S.S. assessment of his fantasy value this year, read my section on Hundley in Week 7's Top 10.
This week's Gut Check delves into the details of Hundley's performance against the Vikings and what it means. here are some basic points to remember from the links above:
- Hundley was unfairly characterized as a lesser prospect due to intellectual limitations placed on him by the UCLA staff. He overcame that perception in rapid fashion as a rookie, leading the NFL in preseason QB rating after absorbing much of the Packers' West Coast Offense in a short period of time.
- Hundley displayed better poise, pocket presence, and footwork at UCLA than characterized in the media.
- Hundley is approximately the same size as Rodgers, displays a similar athletic ability to buy time, and makes difficult throws on the move.
I believe that if Hundley and Marcus Mariota switched college teams, Hundley would have been the starter on a National Championship Finalist and a Heisman Finalist, and Mariota would have been unjustly nitpicked to the fifth round.
The film
Let's begin with Hundley's skill on the move. I featured these two plays in the Top 10, but we'll go into more detail and why it matters for fantasy owners. The first notable thing about the play below is Hundley's ability to wait until the last possible point to avoid the pressure. It's a good sign that Hundley has a feel for the pocket and is primarily focused on finding the open man.
The Vikings are an athletic pass-rushing unit and Hundley makes his flush and reset to the left look like he had a massive amount of time. It's a testament to his quickness that is also reminiscent of Rodgers, and why Rodgers has been productive despite a banged-up offensive line.
The reset and fire are one of the most interesting facets of this play because the stance is a good starting point for what evolves into an off-balanced release. Mechanically, it looks a lot like a throw Rodgers would make and it's only natural that a quarterback who works around Rodgers daily for the first three formative years of his pro career would pick up some similar habits.
Depending on how you interpret the play with the available broadcast angle, this may or may not be a pinpoint throw. What we know is it's a 25-yard throw from pitch-to-catch on the move to the side opposite his throwing hand—a difficult throw made easy.
If it's a throw with general accuracy (in the area where a receiver should catch it but not at the exact point it should be placed—which I defined as pinpoint accuracy), then it's a decent throw but only to note his pocket movement and technique. If it's a pinpoint throw because Hundley saw the position of the defensive back to the inside and decided that he could lead Adams downfield inside the boundary for yards after the catch, it's an excellent throw in an improvised scenario while working away from pressure.
I've seen Hundley make these plays at UCLA, so I believe it was an intentional placement.
I also appreciate his work from the pocket. Just like his years at UCLA, Hundley remains poised and only flushes as necessary. The resulting target is also an impressive throw that Jordy Nelson should have caught.
Hundley also works through his progressions on this play. We don't see whether he worked through them appropriately or misread a situation before moving to the next option, but we see that he considered options across the entire width of the field and at various depths.
He's also willing to hang in the pocket and let the pressure get within arm's reach before taking evasive maneuvers. It's a great sign that he's mature in the pocket and gives his protection every chance to make adjustments rather than destroying the entire pocket when not necessary to do so.
I love the confidence Hundley shows to target Nelson in traffic because the trailing defender is not looking at Hundley but at the receiver. This allows Hundley to throw over the trailer's head into a tight area.
These plays came at the end of the game. Earlier in the contest, we saw a lot of short passes from Hundley. One of the reasons for this has to do with timing and comfort. By game's end, Hundley had to make aggressive decisions to give the Packers any shot of winning. Earlier, Hundley was trying to mount a comeback but taking care not to make mistakes that could generate an insurmountable lead for the Vikings.
As Hundley earns practice with the starters, he'll develop greater timing and placement on specific routes—especially vertical routes thrown in rhythm, including deep comebacks, sideline fades, digs and back-shoulder fades.
This out to Nelson is an example of good execution on one of these route types.
Hundley once again looks off the defense before turning his attention to Nelson. The entire play is executed within the rhythm of the initial drop and a hitch, which indicates this route is the second read.
This out was also delivered from a pocket that was not entirely clean; Hundley steps into the pressure to make the throw. We see a similar situation on this play below that came very close to his second touchdown of the day.
Hundley has always been tough, and I love when a quarterback knows when to exhibit that toughness as a precursor to a big play. That's the difference between toughness and poised wisdom. This is an example of the latter.
Speaking of back-shoulder throws, here's one to Nelson on third down versus a delayed blitz from the linebacker.
What I've shared thus far are Hundley's basic strengths based on his NFL film and the things that he'll likely build on as he develops a greater rapport with this teammates as the new focal point of the Packers' offensive gameplan. Remember, the Packers will be evolving with Hundley's style; they'll ask him to do some of the things Rodgers does, but they'll also figure out Hundley's strengths and adjust to them where possible.
Because Rodgers has proven he can make opponents pay dearly when they try to get cute with various blitz looks, Green Bay's offense hasn't seen them as often. That's about to change until Hundley proves that he can hit the bully in the mouth and knock him down.
The Vikings confused Hundley and sacked him when it presented a pre-snap look of a Double A-Gap Blitz (two inside linebackers blitzing over each shoulder of the center) only to drop out and send edge pressure from the safety off the left side.
Here's another blitz that I think is a greater credit to the Vikings defense than it is the fault of Hundley.
I doubt that any quarterback would have overcome this play as-is. Perhaps as Hundley earns more time with the starters he will diagnose these looks early enough to adjust, but this will be the product of the quarterback developing a rapport with his receivers and it was Rodgers, not Hundley, who has spent that time crafting rapport with Nelson, Adams, and Cobb.
However, when most teams try to blitz Hundley, I would give the edge to him because he's good in the pocket, his legs are an asset, and he can manipulate the middle of the field as an improviser.
While I'm not as optimistic about Hundley's upside as a vertical passer on these plays as I am with Rodgers in these situations, Hundley will generate impressive highlight moments. This touchdown to Adams is an example of that post-pocket improvisation despite it not being a reaction to a blitz.
Even Hundley's greatest mistake was the type of play where he will bet better with practice reps. Vertically, this is a short route but horizontally, it covers a distance similar to an out or a curl and at an even more difficult trajectory.
The outlook
Hundley matches the minimum requirements of Aaron Rodgers' job in this offense. I'm sharing these film-based observations below and placing the players and positions who are likely targets of these scenarios in parenthesis:
- Buys time and targets aggressively downfield on the move and into tight windows (Nelson, Adams, Cobb, and Montgomery).
- Stands in the pocket and will take the shot to hit an open vertical target (Nelson, Adams, and Yancey).
- Finds second and third potions from the pocket (Nelson, Adams, and Cobb).
- Exhibits understanding of the offense and the timing of routes (Everyone).
Here are areas of Hundley's game that need improvement or I have not seen evidence of his development since his rookie year. If he can unlock these skills or prove he's competent, it will unlock the potential of the players and positions listed in parenthesis:
- Throw accurate touch passes over linebackers and safeties in the flats and shallow zones like the screen pass (RBs, TEs, and Cobb).
- Deliver accurate touch passes in the red zone (Nelson and Adams).
- Deliver outlet throws (RBs and TEs).
- Identify and execute hot reads, protection calls, and route adjustments (WRs and TEs).
- Make good audibles from run-to-pass and pass-to-run and change the direction of called run plays at the line (All skill players, especially RBs).
Winners: When breaking down Hundley's game in this fashion, the safest fantasy bets are Nelson and Adams, who I expect to remain fantasy starters even if one or both drop a tier from WR1 to WR2.
Boom-Bust: Cobb is a risk-reward pick and depends on how well Hundley can make touch passes over defenders, especially in blitz situations. The same can be said with the tight ends but they have an even higher degree of boom-bust potential because they are often used in Green Bay as outlets or targets on hots and audibles.
Losers: Unless the Packers implement more option and read-option looks into the offense that we've seen used with Carson Wentz, Alex Smith, and DeShaun Watson, the tight ends and running backs won't see a rise in production and may even see it suffer further.
If you need a quarterback, I prefer Hundley over C.J. Beathard, DeShone Kizer, and Blake Bortles. I also think he has enough upside to deliver low-end QB1 production, which could place him ahead of a host of well-known and struggling fantasy starters. Hundley's three years of continuity in the same offense is an important point that many fans don't consider. So is his three years of working around the best quarterback in football.
The bigger question is how much of that production is spread around his offense and how much is confined to his playmaking potential of his running. I'm inclined to believe Hundley will support two of the three receivers each week and either spread the rest among one or two of the following: a back, a tight end, third receiver, or his rushing totals. I expect it won't be a predictable spread, either.
Long-term, Hundley is worth a strong dynasty buy because the Packers shopped him around during the 2017 NFL Draft and there have been inquiries during the past two years. Quality game tape during Rodgers' absence could enhance Hundley's trade value and earn him a starting opportunity for a team in need of a young quarterback.
As we've seen, there are a lot of those organizations that may prefer Hundley over the potentially overrated (vastly so) 2018 quarterback class.
