From Brock Bowers to Bargains, Best-Ball Tight End Strategies For 2025: The Fantasy Notebook
By Bob Harris - Exclusive to Footballguys
The following feature is a free preview of our content. If you like it, click here to sign up for access to our Footballguys Premium Subscriptions, and you'll get all of our content. We're so sure you'll love it that we have an industry-leading 30-day MoneyBack Guarantee, so there's zero risk.
Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Feeling A Draft?
Yes. We're less than a week away from the 2025 NFL Draft. For those new to my work, I don't profess to be a draft expert. It's an interesting and pertinent topic, but immersing in it is a full-time job. Fortunately, we have plenty of experts right here at Footballguys to help you -- and me -- get where we need to be.
That starts with the Footballguys Rookie Guide, which offers pre-draft rankings, scouting reports, scheme fits, and Scouting Combine test numbers. It's an outstanding compilation featuring the work of staffers Jeff Bell, Alfredo Brown, Mike Kashuba, and others. Version 2.0 is available for download free of charge. Version 3.0, updated with landing spots and fantasy outlooks, will be released on Wednesday, April 30, available free to all Elite (and higher) level subscribers. Version 2.0 will continue to be available at no charge for all comers.
Beyond that, you'll find articles, podcasts, and video content from many experts on staff. Matt Waldman, the author of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, has made multiple appearances across the Footballguys platforms over the last couple of weeks -- including a spot on my On The Hotseat series. Waldman also made an appearances on the Fantasy Football Show with Brown and Dave Kluge, and On The Couch with Sigmund Bloom. NFL.com's Chad Reuter and The Athletic's Dane Brugler have also taken recent turns OTC.
There's a lot there, but I suggest the Pre-Draft Bloom 100 as an immediate must-read if time is limited.
So with all that NFL Draft content at your fingertips, I've got another draft in mind for some counter-programming . . .
Feeling A Best-Ball Draft!
I've used the last three Fantasy Notebooks to track early Underdog ADPs by position -- hitting Quarterbacks, Running Backs, and Wide Receivers. This week, we'll close out that exercise with Tight Ends.
Much like we see at the other positions, there are some widely-accepted strategies at tight end. The elite anchor strategy offers weekly stability at a volatile position -- without overcommitting beyond one pick. Or you can double-dip in the mid-tiers, allowing for a balanced build that prioritizes RB/WR depth with TE upside addressed by volume. You can also throw caution to the wind and go with three late-round tight ends -- and a quantity-over-quality approach that requires spike weeks from outlier players.
Many will choose the first approach. Footballguy Jeff Blaylock recently pointed out that just three tight ends averaged 15 points-per-reception (PPR) points per game: Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle.
But as Blaylock acknowledges, "While they gave their drafters a positional advantage of four to six points per game, using premium draft picks to land these elite tight ends meant chasing other positions with higher-scoring potential."
There's also considerable year-to-year variance at the position.
Our colleague Rachel Tootsiepop wrote: "Understanding and knowing that the tight end position is unpredictable is half the battle . . . If you end up waiting, pay attention to tight ends in good situations and those who produce yards after the catch. Be ready to pivot and stream when needed."
When you pivot, Kluge suggests looking for players with a short route to the top of their receiving game's pecking order.
The good news is that the position offers a wide range of candidates that enable all those approaches -- and we'll look at the full range, starting at the top of the current Average Draft Position (ADP) ranks and moving through my favorite bargain-basement offerings.
Let's dive in . . .
Brock Bowers, TE1: How Much Is Too Much?
In Las Vegas, Bowers closed out a historic season with 112 catches in 2024, passing Malik Nabers to officially secure the NFL record for most receptions by a rookie at any position in NFL history. In Week 17, he broke Mike Ditka's 63-year-old NFL record for receiving yards by a rookie tight end (1,076).
Bowers finished the season with 1,194 yards. He accomplished this while catching passes from the trio of Gardner Minshew II, Aidan O'Connell, and Desmond Ridder.
He also finished as TE1 with a 15.5-point per-game average.
Change is coming this year. With new head coach Pete Carroll, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, and quarterback Geno Smith, it's likely to change for the better. As NBC Sports' Matthew Berry pointed out, Smith leaves Seattle with three-straight seasons of 3,500-plus passing yards and 20-plus passing touchdowns. The last Raiders QB to do that was Derek Carr in 2022.
So it's no surprise that Bowers is the first tight end off the board in early best-ball drafts. But is the 15th pick overall, his current Average Draft Position, more than you should pay?
The Verdict: Acceptable, but not ideal.
This is where I acknowledge how vital leverage over the field is in fantasy football. It's even more critical at positions of scarcity. And there isn't a position in the game where high-end talent is as scarce as at tight end. It's why I often invest at the position early in drafts -- even when it means drafting one in the first round. But there are two issues here: First, I'm not keen on paying the premium that comes after a historic season. Historic seasons are, by definition, hard to repeat.
The bigger issue is there are players capable of delivering similar outcomes at lower prices . . .
CONTINUED...