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Welcome In. We've got another sweet day of cool fantasy football features for you. Our staff dives into the Rookie Tight End Sleepers they're seeing. Plus, Josh Fahlsing breaks down "buckets" for Dynasty QBs. And Gary Davenport continues the Ridiculously Early predictions this time focusing on Individual Defensive Players.
Plus Bob Harris has the News and Notes you need.
Let's Go.
J
PS. The Post-Draft Footballguys Rookie Draft Guide is LIVE! Version 3 includes team fits, updated depth charts, and — for the first time — the Post-Draft Bloom 100. It’s available exclusively for ELITE, HALL OF FAME, and G.O.A.T. subscribers and built to give you the edge in every rookie draft.
The NFL Draft is in the books, and our Rookie Draft Guide is ready. Version 3.0 includes new team fits, depth chart projections, refined scouting intel, and — for the first time — the Post-Draft Bloom 100. It’s your complete blueprint for dominating dynasty rookie drafts.
Dynasty Buckets, a Different Look at Tiers: Quarterbacks – Josh Fahlsing classifies quarterbacks using his Dynasty Buckets system — a strategic tool designed to help managers assess depth, upside, and starter confidence this offseason.
Planting Flags: Ridiculously Early IDP Predictions for 2025 – Gary Davenport throws caution (and logic) to the wind with fearless May IDP predictions — including Aidan Hutchinson’s sack crown and a linebacker breakout you won't see coming.
Rookie Sleeper Picks, Tight Ends – Rachel Tootsiepop and the Footballguys Staff highlight rookie tight end sleepers with talent, opportunity, and just enough grit to rise and surprise in fantasy leagues.
Among the biggest movers this week: Lamar Jackson surged 6 spots, Jayden Daniels climbed 4, and Bo Nix jumped 8. But which of these rising QBs most deserves the boost?
So today, we ask you Footballguys:
🗳️ POLL: Which rising QB most deserves their recent NFFC ADP surge?
When you vote in the Poll below, you'll see the current standings, and we'll post the final results in the next edition of the Daily Update.
🗳️ POLL: What’s your main league’s take on flex spot eligibility?
WR Ja'Marr Chase's long push for a new contract ended in March when he signed a four-year extension with the Bengals, making him the league's highest-paid non-quarterback. Chase said that he has "a lot" of goals left, including the championships that have eluded him to this point in his career. In addition to that team success, Chase said he has eyes on getting "better at everything I can do," which means he has to raise the bar even higher than it was already set. "There are expectations; the standard is high," Chase said via the team's website. "Just have fun and play my game, but also know I'm holding myself to a higher standard now. Higher than whatever it was."
Our view: Chase set the stage for that pact by putting up 127 catches for 1,708 yards and 17 touchdowns during the 2024 season and putting a bow on one of the most prolific four-year starts to a career in NFL history. The Bengals will need more than Chase to reach the kind of collective success that the wideout has in mind, but even bigger things from him in 2025 won't hurt their chances of making it back to the postseason. And that will sit well with fantasy investors, who have already made him the 1.01 in early best-ball drafts on Underdog.
Green Bay Packers WR Christian Watson (knee) said he is doing 'really well' in his rehab after last season's torn anterior cruciate ligament, speaking with reporters Sunday, May 4. 'I'm in a really, really good spot,' Watson said. 'Just keeping the mentality there. Just working. I've got a couple more months ahead of me, but I'm attacking it every day. I'm in a really good spot.'
Our view: The timing of the injury means that Watson has a cloudy outlook for a return in 2025. And even if the start of the offseason program has lifted Watson's spirits, the immediate future is uncertain. The Packers added Matthew Golden in the first round and Savion Williams in the third round, so they moved to bolster the receiver group well ahead of any concrete news about when Watson might be able to play. As Profootballtalk.com suggests, if that duo makes a quick transition to NFL life, Watson's future in Green Bay beyond 2025 -- the final year of his rookie deal -- will also be cloudy.
Dynasty Buckets, a Different Look at Tiers: Quarterbacks
By Josh Fahlsing - Exclusive to Footballguys
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The Buckets
If you are as curious and skeptical of me as I am, you probably think, "Isn't bucket just another word for tier?" I think of buckets as a more general classification. Remember how old radios had a big knob that would help you tune into the general frequency and then a little knob that helped you fine-tune and sharpen the reception? Buckets are the big knobs, tiers are the little ones.
When we get to the roster-building part of the dynasty calendar, I like to put my players into these buckets to help me see where I need to get deeper or more talented. If you read the first part of our series on D
ecoding the Dynasty Calendar, then you're already familiar with these buckets. If not, go ahead and read it now. I'll be right here when you get back.
Done? Okay, good. Let's summarize.
Starters: If I am comfortable starting the player, whether at a specific position or in a flex or superflex spot, I put them into this bucket.
Rotation: Players I view as likely to be contributors in the upcoming season. These are guys who could be regulars in the lineup once bye weeks or injuries hit, but who, even without that, should have consistent fantasy-point-scoring roles on their NFL teams.
Upside/Blocked: Generally, this bucket is for players in their third year or less who have not yet cracked regular playing time in real life. This bucket is for players with undeniable upside who have been blocked from regular playing time for some reason or another. Whether it's by injury, a veteran player, or some other reason, these young players haven't had enough of a chance to make me comfortable relying on them yet.
Veteran Depth: Not starters, and not rotation pieces, this is your "break glass in case of emergency" bucket. These could be handcuffs to your starters or just veteran players blocked from regular playing time, similar to the young guys in the Upside bucket above. You might be uncomfortable with them in your weekly lineup, but they could hold value if circumstances fall just right.
Scratch-off Tickets: This is a bit of a catch-all, but the notion is that this bucket holds the players you can't quite quit yet, the players you can squint your eyes and tilt your head just right and see value in. In short, the long-shot flag plants that make us dynasty degenerates feel alive.
If using this concept to assess your rosters, please remember that flexibility is key. Players can move pretty fluidly from bucket to bucket, especially as off-season activity ramps up in the NFL, injuries happen, and position battles unfold. I want most of my dynasty rosters to be compos
ed of players in the first three buckets, but your specific league settings and personal playing style should determine what works best for you.
Quarterback Buckets
So with that explanation out of the way, and as we sit here in the first week of May, below you'll find quarterbacks grouped by bucket, along with the tier in which they currently reside in the Footballguys Dynasty Rankings for a little added fine-tuning.
Jayden Daniels, WASH (2) His value can't go much higher. My biggest question right now is whether he can sustain it. If he can, he will likely move up and become a Tier 1 quarterback for a long time.
C.J. Stroud, HOU (2) It seems unlikely Stroud will ever get Tank Dell back at 100% of what Dell could've become, a fact underscored by the work the Texans' front office did on the wide receiver room this year. Stroud's trajectory softened a bit from his rookie year, but he has the talent around him to pay off on that promise and increase his dynasty value again.
According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, the Dallas Cowboys "have not yet ramped up negotiations" with star edge-rusher Micah Parsons. "That doesn't mean they will not. They are budgeting for that," Fowler reported Sunday on SportsCenter. Fowler went on to say Dallas could use some of its available salary cap space to bolster the receiving corps, with the Cowboys and Amari Cooper having "some mutual interest" in a reunion.
Our view: Cooper is coming off a disappointing 2024 season. His 44 receptions, 547 yards, and four touchdown grabs were all career lows. With the team not taking a wideout in the 2025 NFL draft, the five-time Pro Bowler would at least provide some depth behind CeeDee Lamb. Remember, the Cowboys traded for Cooper in 2018, with a first-round pick going the other way. The former Raider remained in Dallas for another three seasons, topping 1,100 receiving yards on two occasions. With Lamb emerging as the team's WR1, Cooper was dealt to the Browns in March 2022 as part of a late-round pick swap agreement. In addition to Lamb, the Cowboys currently have Jalen Tolbert, Jonathan Mingo, Parris Campbell, and returner KaVontae Turpin on their depth chart.
Buffalo Bills WR Elijah Moore is likely to have the 'inside track' for a spot on the 53-man roster, per The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia, though he notes there figures to be competition for the fifth receiver spot. He considers WRs Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and newly signed WR Joshua Palmer to be entrenched as the top four.
Our view: Moore can play multiple receiver spots, which could help him carve out a possible role in a group that includes Laviska Shenault Jr. The Bills also picked Kaden Prather out of Maryland in the seventh round Saturday, their only selection at wide receiver in the draft. Josh Allen has proven he can put up points despite not having a star-studded wideout room. Moore should have every chance to carve out a role in this offseason. We'll watch for more on that as the season draws nearer.
Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts is expected to take 'a big jump' in his second year in offensive coordinator Zac Robinson's system.'I'm expecting Kyle to take a big jump. You know, Year 2 of the system. Year 2 of understanding what we're trying to do offensively. All those things that come with it, so expecting a lot of good things from Kyle. He knows what he needs to work on with the details, some of the fundamentals and techniques, the consistency down in and down out, those are things we talk about with him and (tight ends coach Kevin) Koger talks about with him all the time is those finer details and that next level that he can take as a player. So I'm pumped for Kyle, can't wait to get on the field with him and that's going to be a lot of fun to see his growth,' Robinson said.
Our view: We touched on this on Sunday when Robinson's quotes first circulated. Adding to that, we'll remind you that Pitts, who doesn't turn 25 until October, had 68 receptions for 1,026 yards as a rookie. But those numbers remain his career bests after four seasons. He had a career-high four touchdowns last year, but his overall line of 47 catches for 602 yards and the four TDs is hardly much to get excited about, especially for a former No. 4 pick. His yards were 13th among TEs, his catches tied for 21st and his touchdowns tied for 11th. Still, the Falcons picked up his fifth-year option for this season, making it a make-or-break year for Pitts in Atlanta. So whatever the formula is for Pitts to find success with the Falcons, it needs to come this year. Time is running out on the potential.
Buffalo Bills WR Laviska Shenault Jr., who signed with the club early in the offseason, 'can't be counted out' for a spot on the 53-man roster, in the opinion of The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia, who notes that the team liked him when he was entering the NFL draft and believe he could be an option as the team's kick returner. He could push fellow newcomer WR Elijah Moore for WR5 or could stick if the team elects to carry six receivers.
Our view: Though Shenault didn't carve out a significant role at receiver during his time as a Panther, Carolina's then-special teams coordinator, Chris Tabor, saw an opportunity for Shenault to become a special teams weapon with the ball in his hands. Ultimately, it was just nine total kickoff returns, but they allowed Shenault to reinvent himself -- to become a valuable asset for teams prioritizing special teams play. Tabor is now with the Bills, having joined the team this offseason. Shenault said that Tabor played a huge role in his signing a one-year contract to play with Buffalo. Fantasy managers should expect special teams to be Shenault's primary focus.
Updating previous reports, Cleveland Browns WR Diontae Johnson's one-year deal is for the veteran's minimum of $1.17 million and includes no guaranteed money.
Our view: The Browns could cut Johnson at any point before the first week of the regular season and avoid being on the hook for any of that salary. Remember, Johnson was traded by the Steelers to the Panthers ahead of the 2024 season and played seven games for Carolina before being dealt to the Ravens. He was waived in December after refusing to enter a game and was claimed by the Texans. Houston cut him during the playoffs, and the Ravens claimed him in order to position themselves for a potential compensatory pick. They won’t be getting that pick, and Johnson has work to do before he can be viewed as fantasy-relevant again.
That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for being a Footballguy. Have a great Wednesday, and we'll see you tomorrow with the Update.
Peace,
J
Joe Bryant
Guide
Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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