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J
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Draft Capital Matters: Rookie Running Backs – Jason Wood crunched 10 years of rookie RB data — and what he found about late-round picks might change how you draft this summer.
Justin Jefferson: Truly Quarterback Proof – Mike Kashuba asks the real question: if Justin Jefferson can thrive with backups, what happens when J.J. McCarthy finally gets his shot?
Among the biggest movers this week: Lamar Jackson surged 6 spots, Jayden Daniels climbed 4, and Bo Nix jumped 8. But which of these rising QBs most deserves the boost?
So today, we ask you Footballguys:
🗳️ POLL: Which rising QB most deserves their recent NFFC ADP surge?
When you vote in the Poll below, you'll see the current standings, and we'll post the final results in the next edition of the Daily Update.
🗳️ POLL: Where will Justin Jefferson finish in PPR scoring among WRs this season?
Tennessee Titans first-round draft choice QB Cam Ward signed a four-year contract with the Titans Wednesday, May 21. Financial terms were not disclosed, but the deal does include a fifth-year option.
Our view: Ward is participating in the team's offseason program after participating in the team's rookie minicamp earlier this month. While splitting first-team reps with Will Levis, Ward will surely be the Week 1 starter in Tennessee. The rookie is QB26 on the Footballguys Projections.
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Avoid the Day 3 Trap
If you’re reading this, there’s a good chance you love football. And our collective fandom has an insatiable appetite for NFL-related content, which has turned the fantasy football industry into a 12-month, 365-day endeavor. The "offseason" is a misnomer, as we all watch free agency with feverish zeal, and then our attention turns to the NFL draft. We watch excitedly as teams use seven rounds of picks to bolster their rosters and further build training camp depth with undrafted free agent signings.
History tells us there's no one formula for NFL success. James Robinson was an undrafted free agent and put up a top-10 season in 2020. Bucky Irving was the sixth running back off the board last April (4th round) but finished RB14 (PPR), well ahead of any other rookie. In fact, you probably have a later-round success story or two in your history managing fantasy rosters.
But here's the truth: the industry collectively overstates the value of later-round rookie running backs.
For every Robinson or Irving, there are dozens of rookies who have little to no impact. Yet, a quick Google search right now will yield a never-ending series of articles touting just about every rookie tailback who went "later than he should" or "has the tools to succeed."
Numbers Don’t Lie
219 running backs were drafted from 2015 to 2024 (10 seasons).
45 of those (21%) finished in the Top 36, which is the threshold for a full-season starting-caliber tailback in 12-team leagues with at least one flex spot.
26 running backs (12%) ranked in the Top 24, meaning they performed like full-time starters in just about any redraft format.
Only 12 (6%) finished as top-12 fantasy runners.
Now let’s look at those fantasy-relevant tailbacks with draft capital added to the conversation.
11 of 49 (22%) were first-round picks.
10 (20%) were second-rounders.
8 (16%) were third-rounders.
10 (20%) were fourth-round picks.
4 (8%) were drafted in the fifth round.
1 (2%) was a sixth-rounder.
1 (2%) was a seventh-rounder.
4 (8%) were undrafted rookie free agents.
The above distribution may lead you to conclude that running back success isn't necessarily tied to draft class. But those numbers don't fully contextualize the hit rates, because we need to consider how many running backs are drafted in each draft tier.
Here are the 10-year hit rates for rookie running backs, by round:
Updating a previous report, Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (hamstring) is able to do most things during offseason workouts but has not been cleared for contact at this time.
Our view: Prescott, who underwent surgery Nov. 13 last year, started his rehab soon after. Despite the no-contact limitations, he told reporters he is ahead, not behind, in his offseason work. It's worth noting the 32-year-old has missed a total of 26 games in the past five seasons with ankle, calf, thumb, and hamstring injuries. That said, Prescott has finished as a fantasy QB1 every year he's played a full 16- or 17-game season. That's six times in nine years. He's currently being drafted as QB16 in early best-ball drafts.
New England Patriots QB Drake Maye threw four interceptions during team drills at practice Tuesday, May 20.
Our view: As USA Today's Jordy McElroy suggested, we shouldn't press the panic button at the first OTA practice open to the media. The offense has several new pieces, including the play-caller. They are still all working to get in sync with one another. It also wasn't all bad news, considering Maye started to settle down later in the practice. Limiting turnovers will be a point of emphasis for the second-year man, who's currently QB17 on the Footballguys Projections.
Indianapolis Colts RB DJ Giddens is 'poised' to operate as the team's primary pass-catching back as a rookie, in the opinion of The Athletic's James Boyd. Free-agent signee RB Khalil Herbert should be the backup while RB Tyler Goodson could be on his way out following the pair of offseason additions.
Our view: As noted in the Footballguys Rookie Draft Guide 3.0, Giddens showcased eye-popping athleticism at the Combine, and that athleticism could help him stand out against the veteran backups in camp. Still, like most other backs taken on Day 3 of the draft, we should be realistic -- especially with Jonathan Taylor in the lead role. Giddens is worth a late-round flier in the deepest leagues, but expectations should be low.
Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin did not attend the team's offseason workout Wednesday, May 21. He is entering the final year of his current contract.
Our view: According to FOX Sports' Jordan Schultz, McLaurin had been a full participant previously, so it is unclear whether his absence was related to his desire for a contract extension. The start of Phase 3 of the program next week will better indicate whether McLaurin is making a statement. A third-round pick in 2019, McLaurin had a career-best 13 touchdowns in his first season playing with QB Jayden Daniels. He caught 82 passes for 1,096 yards, his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season. McLaurin is WR17 on the Footballguys 2025 Projections.
Chicago Bears WR Luther Burden III (undisclosed) did not participate in practice Wednesday, May 21, because of a soft tissue injury, according to head coach Ben Johnson.
Our view: "We're working through a little soft-tissue deal with him right now, and it remains to be seen when we'll get him back," Johnson said. The Bears selected Burden with the 39th overall pick, the sixth wide receiver off the board. It has Burden motivated to make "everybody who passed up on me . . . pay." He might not have tremendous redraft value this season, but Burden's versatility and ability to create yards after the catch made him a focal point of Missouri's offense. His long-term future in Johnson's offense in Chicago should be of great interest to Dynasty investors.
New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson has had some contract extension talks with the Jets this offseason and hopes to remain with the team for the rest of his career.
Our view: Wilson has three straight seasons with over 80 receptions and 1,000 yards to start his career in the league, joining Odell Beckham Jr., Michael Thomas, Justin Jefferson, and Ja'Marr Chase as the only receivers in NFL history to accomplish that feat. He's done it despite dealing with sub-par quarterback play in New York. This year, Wilson could benefit from the signing of QB Justin Fields. The two had success together at Ohio State, so their reunion could produce some numbers in 2025. If so, Wilson will be a value. He's currently WR25 on the Footballguys Projections.
Indianapolis Colts PK Spencer Shrader, who was signed shortly before the team released PK Matt Gay, is set to battle undrafted free-agent PK Maddox Trujillo for the kicking duties in the preseason, but the job is Shrader's to lose, in the opinion of The Athletic's James Boyd. Shrader went 5-for-5 while splitting time with the New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs last season.
Our view: As an undrafted rookie in 2024 who began his NFL career with the Colts before making two other stops last season, Shrader is still an inexperienced player, with only nine career extra point attempts and five career field goal attempts -- all of which he has made. We'll watch for more on this competition.
Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of the Footballguys family. Whether it’s navigating draft tiers or decoding the Tush Push ruling, we’re glad to be in your corner.
We’ll be back tomorrow with more insight to keep you one step ahead.
Peace, Love and Fantasy Football,
J
Joe Bryant
Guide
Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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We Help You Win More At Fantasy Football
We help you win more at Fantasy Football. Join 700,000+ others who are dominating their fantasy football leagues on our 100% FREE Daily Update newsletter