Reading the Defense: Defensive Line Tiers (Late Camp/Final Updates)

Jene Bramel's Reading the Defense: Defensive Line Tiers (Late Camp/Final Updates) Jene Bramel Published 08/28/2014

WHY TIERS?

Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by adding staffer comments, but it can be hard to see the all-important context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's critical to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.

That's where tiers are helpful.

Using tiers allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers of equal value left on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.

Note 1: These tiers are based on 2014 expectation only and I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts later in the offseason). I will include a separate dynasty stash tier at the end of each positional article.

Note 2: The date on this article represents the last time the tiers were updated. Make sure you are viewing the most recent tier article by checking the complete IDP article list here.

THIS IS THE FINAL UPDATE OF THIS FEATURE (late august)

The majority of IDP drafts – due to their length – have already started. Those that haven’t will likely be completed this weekend. So, this will be the last full update of the trend and ADP columns. I will make adjustments to these tiers through the final week and weekend of the preseason as we learn final decisions on depth charts and roles within each team’s defense. Check back as often as you like. I will no longer update this page after Sunday, August 31. Look for new tier articles sporadically during the season.

I've added a column to address trends inside and throughout the tiers. I'll add a ^^^^ for those players making a move up in my tiers and vvvv for those players who have dropped since the previous tier release (August 2). For reference, I'm going to preserve the earlier versions of these tier articles, but the trend column should help you see where player movement is happening within the tiers at a quick glance. 

I've also included an ADP column. The ADP number (snapshot taken on August 28) will be an average of our FBG rankings (top 80), the FantasyPros Consensus Rankings (top 90) and ADP data from all drafts after July 1 at MFL.

TIER 1 | ELITE DL1

I refined the first three tiers in the previous update. Since that update two weeks ago, there has been some movement within the tiers themselves but no player has moved up or down a few slots. That also holds for the later tiers.

I believe J.J. Watt, Robert Quinn and Chandler Jones may deserve a mini-tier of their own. I still think Greg Hardy deserves consideration in the top tier, but his suspension is an unknown and I think his floor is a little lower than the top three. I'll have more on the changes in the next two tiers below.

J.J. Watt <> DL1 Consecutive seasons of 65+ solos, near lock to "regress" up to mid double digit sacks
Robert Quinn <> DL2 Outscored Watt in balanced scoring systems in 2013, breakout season was no fluke
Chandler Jones <> DL3 Elite fantasy talent with room to improve as pass rusher, home stat crew increases assists

TIER 2A | ELITE DL1 UPSIDE

I've had eleven players in this tier throughout the spring and summer months. As we approach the regular season and see how coordinators are approaching passing downs and see whether the veterans with durability concerns are looking good or not, it's time to drill down and decide who truly has DL1 upside, who has a safe floor and whose range of expectation remains wide. Nitpicking these details is key when you're trying to decide whether to grab a WR5 or RB4 or your first DE in the eighth or ninth round. This group are the players I'm willing to take over a questionable offensive depth play. I'll also consider them over an elite linebacker, especially if I missed out on a top three defensive end.

Greg Hardy <> DL4 Still no word on suspension; three straight seasons near 40 solos, elite pass rusher
Jason Pierre-Paul <> DL9 Looking explosive during preseason, is optimistic about his own health, still only 25 years old
Cameron Wake <> DL5 Burst looks to be back in first two preseason games, always a dual tackle - sack threat
Rob Ninkovich <> DL7 Quietly a lock for 40 solos and 7-8 sacks, NE stat crew helped with 49 assists last year 
DeMarcus Ware <> DL10 Will see more pass rush chances in DEN, showing no healthy concerns in preseason
Cameron Jordan <> DL12 Dominant 5-tech pass rusher, solo tackles will rebound, high floor play with upside 

TIER 2B | ELITE DL1 UPSIDE W/ HIGH VARIANCE

There's a tier break here in my mind. Each of these defensive ends have elite DL1 upside. But I'm not as confident in their floor projection and/or am worried that they'll put up too many near-zero weeks.

Carlos Dunlap <> DL13 Frustratingly inconsistent with durability risk but has elite weekly and season-long potential 
Ezekiel Ansah <> DL17 Now off PUP, looked ready in first preseason action, Quinn/Jones like development possible
Mario Williams <> DL11 Fits scheme well, solid performer, but now pushing 30 and has periods of inconsistency
Michael Johnson <> DL15 Has yet to top 40 solos, only one season of double digit sacks

TIER 3A | DL2 W/ DL1 UPSIDE

In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the High Variance DL2 and High Floor DL2 tiers. There isn't much difference between Charles Johnson (in this tier) and Carlos Dunlap (in the tier above). And that's just one example. In general, I think the players in the tier above have a higher ceiling than those here. It's arguable that those higher ceiling players also have a lower floor than the top players in this tier. When you make your final tier lists, do so with your own draft philosophy in mind. If you'd rather have the higher percentage player, move those players you don't trust down into a more appropriate tier.

Calais Campbell <> DL6 Value pick if available outside top ten, but potential for 6-7 sack season a worry
Olivier Vernon <> DL16 OTA reports were strong, but not sure he can repeat last year 46-11.5 effort
Muhammad Wilkerson <> DL8 May be closer to Jordan than Campbell in pass rush upside
Charles Johnson <> DL20 Stud pass rusher, but durability and three years of Freeney-esque low solo tackles
Everson Griffen [VALUE] <> DL27 If you like to chase upside, Griffen's per snap profile suggests breakout is coming
Justin Tuck <> DL21 Frustrated fantasy owners for years, but 2013 mini-renaissance renews hope
Adrian Clayborn <> DL26 Two years from ACL surgery, benefit from strong scheme and surrounding cast

TIER 3B | HIGH VARIANCE DL2

In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the DL2 with DL1 Upside and High Floor DL2 tiers. This group is scoring system sensitive. They'd rank higher in this large tier in sack-heavy scoring leagues, lower in tackle-heavy systems. Wallace Gilberry and Jerry Hughes represent the best values in this tier and the best chance of DL2+ upside.

Jerry Hughes [VALUE] <> DL35 Quiet 9.5 sacks last year, locked in as DE starter after strong OTA weeks
Jared Allen <> DL14 Once uber-elite tackle numbers long gone, pass rush rate stats remain strong
Chris Long <> DL23 Could put up 3-4 sacks any week, but long stretches of fantasy purgatory still likely
Wallace Gilberry <> DL38 Did well in larger role, snap count dependent on development of Margus Hunt
Cliff Avril <> DL30 Great scheme, more snaps this year, tackle numbers too inconsistent to rank higher
Lamarr Woodley <> DL34 Nary a whisper about his hamstrings in preseason, worth a look as a DL2 but risky

TIER 3C | HIGH FLOOR DL2

In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the DL2 with DL1 Upside and High Variance DL2 tiers. This tier is light right now. I like the ceiling of Wilkerson, Griffen, Tuck and Clayborn too much to drop them into this group. And I don't like the floor of the large group of ends in the tier that follows. While the ADP for Kiwanuka has been slowly rising, it's still criminally low. He's an easy add as your DL4 late in the draft.

Lamarr Houston <> DL18 Still see T15 upside but wasn't willing to draft him at ceiling when mock drafting
Michael Bennett <> DL28 Could finish in top 15 if cashes in on his increased snap count and scheme
Sheldon Richardson <> DL22 Won't generate pass rush stats needed for elite tier, strong high floor target
Cameron Heyward <> DL37 Still developing, more consistent second half of 2013 after returning from injury
Mathias Kiwanuka [VALUE] <> DL65 Talented, underrated but not elite; playing in all packages in preseason

TIER 4 | DL3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE

I noted the relative weakness of the tier throughout the offseason. Now, it's downright ugly. I nearly changed the title of this tier to some version of a watch list. I wouldn't roster anyone in this tier right now. You'll likely be able to roster three players from the above tiers. If you get greedy at other positions in a competitive draft and need early season help, look to exploit a matchup against a weak offensive tackle. Otherwise, leave your DL bench slots open until a smart option or strong trend presents itself.

Julius Peppers >> LB   Still listed as DE on MFL, but Rotoworld has correctly at LB, would be in Tier 2B here
Chris Clemons <> DL31 Arguably best pass rusher in Jacksonville, rotating with Branch in preseason games
Brian Robison <> DL29 Good year-end numbers, not talented enough to produce consistent all-around stats
Willie Young <> DL85 Preseason injury, presence of Allen and Houston will limit his snap count early
Dion Jordan <> DL55 Suspended four games, impressing this offseason, snap count remains question
Andre Branch <> DL48 Resistant to add to tiers, strong offseason play continues though in rotation
Jurrell Casey <> DL33 Talented enough to be lesser version of Calais Campbell
Osi Umenyiora <> DL42 Unlikely to be reclassified to LB now, but situational rusher only
Fletcher Cox <> DL47 Still waiting for breakout but tools and snap count will be there
Jeremy Mincey <> DL46 Cowboys currently rotating line series for series in preseason
Justin Smith <> DL41 No longer elite combo of solos/sacks, SF depth improving, rotation likely
Margus Hunt <> DL60 Larger rotational role, seeing nickel pass rusher snaps and some base snaps
Haloti Ngata <> DL53 Reclassified to DE, durability questions are hard to ignore
Mike Daniels <> DL79 Potentially dominant pass rusher, would have more value if classified at DT
Jason Jones <> DL63 Talented, good fit for scheme, if knees stay healthy will have matchup value

TIER 5 | REDRAFT WATCH LIST

This is your DL2+ upside watch list. There isn't a clear role to enough playing time for this group, but they will be immediately rosterable if circumstances put them into a 500+ snap role later in the season.

Damontre Moore <> DL44 Still needs development, DL2 upside if ready for base defensive role
Armonty Bryant <> DL88 To play heavily while Desmond Bryant recovers, tackle upside questionable
Quanterus Smith <> DL82 Killing second team offensive lines, may be pre-emptive roster in dynasty leagues now
Malik Jackson <> DL49 Wolfe back with starters, keep on speed dial if DEN has injury along DL
Devin Taylor <> DL57 May see 700 snaps with Willie Young gone, offensive lines will focus on teammates

DYNASTY STASH

This list was short before the draft. Unfortunately, the draft didn't add many prospects to the mix. Shallow dynasty owners will have some of the above tier (redraft watch list) available to them.

Tank Carradine <> DL67 Up to 290 pounds, transitioning to 3-4 DE, periods of dominance in preseason games
Demarcus Lawrence <> DL58 Broken foot in camp, needed snaps and developmental time to have fantasy value
Kareem Martin <>   Cardinals developing as 5-tech defensive end
Kony Ealy <>   Stuck behind Hardy and Johnson but will get 2015 chance
Scott Crichton <>   Will develop behind Griffen and Robison, Zimmer not shy about rotating young talent
Datone Jones <>   Showed ability to handle 3-4 end role at UCLA, tough to see viable fantasy ceiling
Chris Smith <>   Great fit as possible long term LEO in Jacksonville, early camp news has been good
Will Clarke <>   Won't have value in 2014, but file away on your long range watch list

DT TARGETS

The top names on this list -- Geno AtkinsGerald McCoy and Ndamukong Suh would slot in the High Variance DL2 tier. The rest of the list is part of the matchup cloud in combined DE/DT leagues. Dynasty leaguers in DT-required leagues shouldn't hold a roster spot for anyone not on this list if there are waiver wire options of value at other positions.

Gerald McCoy <> DL24 Primo scheme, entering prime of career, overall DT1 / DL2 finish possible
Ndamukong Suh <> DL25 Didn't finish in pocket enough last season, improvement from Ansah would help
Kyle Williams <> DL32 Quietly productive despite injury and scheme changes
Geno Atkins <> DL19 Back in preseason action last week, but still likely limited role in early season
Henry Melton <> DL43 Great fit with Marinelli and Tampa-2 undertackle role; injury concern
Dontari Poe [VALUE] <> DL45 Sacks fell off cliff after Week 5 but pressure per snap and tackle counts did not
Marcell Dareus <> DL36 If tackle counts remain high outside of Pettine system, should remain strong DT1
Aaron Donald <> DL51 Little inconsistent in preseason, but surrounding cast will boost rookie numbers
Antonio Smith <> DL72 Now slated for 3-tech role in Oakland, upside matchup play
Nick Fairley <> DL40 Will split snaps with C.J. Mosley until he plays with consistency
Sharrif Floyd <> DL92 Camp reports very positive on his development, Zimmer scheme favorable
Star Lotulelei <> DL69 Would be higher if pass rush was better, breakout potential here
Jay Ratliff <> DL83 Good scheme with Bears, high variance DT2 play
Linval Joseph <> DL70 Zimmer gets most out of his tackle rotation, has 40-6 upside
Sylvester Williams <> DL54 Improved as 2013 progressed, may not be elite but upside makes him rosterable
Dominique Easley <> DL93 As disruptive as Donald, similar upside as part of strong DL; injury concern
Michael Brockers <> DL59 Disappointing, but talent and surrounding cast earn him one more look

 

Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here

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