Reading the Defense: Defensive Line Tiers (Late Camp/Final Updates)

WHY TIERS?

Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by adding staffer comments, but it can be hard to see the all-important context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's critical to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.

That's where tiers are helpful.

Using tiers allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers of equal value left on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.

Note 1: These tiers are based on 2014 expectation only and I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts later in the offseason). I will include a separate dynasty stash tier at the end of each positional article.

Note 2: The date on this article represents the last time the tiers were updated. Make sure you are viewing the most recent tier article by checking the complete IDP article list here.

THIS IS THE FINAL UPDATE OF THIS FEATURE (late august)

The majority of IDP drafts – due to their length – have already started. Those that haven’t will likely be completed this weekend. So, this will be the last full update of the trend and ADP columns. I will make adjustments to these tiers through the final week and weekend of the preseason as we learn final decisions on depth charts and roles within each team’s defense. Check back as often as you like. I will no longer update this page after Sunday, August 31. Look for new tier articles sporadically during the season.

I've added a column to address trends inside and throughout the tiers. I'll add a ^^^^ for those players making a move up in my tiers and vvvv for those players who have dropped since the previous tier release (August 2). For reference, I'm going to preserve the earlier versions of these tier articles, but the trend column should help you see where player movement is happening within the tiers at a quick glance. 

I've also included an ADP column. The ADP number (snapshot taken on August 28) will be an average of our FBG rankings (top 80), the FantasyPros Consensus Rankings (top 90) and ADP data from all drafts after July 1 at MFL.

TIER 1 | ELITE DL1

I refined the first three tiers in the previous update. Since that update two weeks ago, there has been some movement within the tiers themselves but no player has moved up or down a few slots. That also holds for the later tiers.

I believe J.J. Watt, Robert Quinn and Chandler Jones may deserve a mini-tier of their own. I still think Greg Hardy deserves consideration in the top tier, but his suspension is an unknown and I think his floor is a little lower than the top three. I'll have more on the changes in the next two tiers below.

TIER 2A | ELITE DL1 UPSIDE

I've had eleven players in this tier throughout the spring and summer months. As we approach the regular season and see how coordinators are approaching passing downs and see whether the veterans with durability concerns are looking good or not, it's time to drill down and decide who truly has DL1 upside, who has a safe floor and whose range of expectation remains wide. Nitpicking these details is key when you're trying to decide whether to grab a WR5 or RB4 or your first DE in the eighth or ninth round. This group are the players I'm willing to take over a questionable offensive depth play. I'll also consider them over an elite linebacker, especially if I missed out on a top three defensive end.

TIER 2B | ELITE DL1 UPSIDE W/ HIGH VARIANCE

There's a tier break here in my mind. Each of these defensive ends have elite DL1 upside. But I'm not as confident in their floor projection and/or am worried that they'll put up too many near-zero weeks.

TIER 3A | DL2 W/ DL1 UPSIDE

In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the High Variance DL2 and High Floor DL2 tiers. There isn't much difference between Charles Johnson (in this tier) and Carlos Dunlap (in the tier above). And that's just one example. In general, I think the players in the tier above have a higher ceiling than those here. It's arguable that those higher ceiling players also have a lower floor than the top players in this tier. When you make your final tier lists, do so with your own draft philosophy in mind. If you'd rather have the higher percentage player, move those players you don't trust down into a more appropriate tier.

TIER 3B | HIGH VARIANCE DL2

In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the DL2 with DL1 Upside and High Floor DL2 tiers. This group is scoring system sensitive. They'd rank higher in this large tier in sack-heavy scoring leagues, lower in tackle-heavy systems. Wallace Gilberry and Jerry Hughes represent the best values in this tier and the best chance of DL2+ upside.

TIER 3C | HIGH FLOOR DL2

In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the DL2 with DL1 Upside and High Variance DL2 tiers. This tier is light right now. I like the ceiling of Wilkerson, Griffen, Tuck and Clayborn too much to drop them into this group. And I don't like the floor of the large group of ends in the tier that follows. While the ADP for Kiwanuka has been slowly rising, it's still criminally low. He's an easy add as your DL4 late in the draft.

TIER 4 | DL3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE

I noted the relative weakness of the tier throughout the offseason. Now, it's downright ugly. I nearly changed the title of this tier to some version of a watch list. I wouldn't roster anyone in this tier right now. You'll likely be able to roster three players from the above tiers. If you get greedy at other positions in a competitive draft and need early season help, look to exploit a matchup against a weak offensive tackle. Otherwise, leave your DL bench slots open until a smart option or strong trend presents itself.

TIER 5 | REDRAFT WATCH LIST

This is your DL2+ upside watch list. There isn't a clear role to enough playing time for this group, but they will be immediately rosterable if circumstances put them into a 500+ snap role later in the season.

DYNASTY STASH

This list was short before the draft. Unfortunately, the draft didn't add many prospects to the mix. Shallow dynasty owners will have some of the above tier (redraft watch list) available to them.

DT TARGETS

The top names on this list -- Geno Atkins, Gerald McCoy and Ndamukong Suh would slot in the High Variance DL2 tier. The rest of the list is part of the matchup cloud in combined DE/DT leagues. Dynasty leaguers in DT-required leagues shouldn't hold a roster spot for anyone not on this list if there are waiver wire options of value at other positions.

Follow @JeneBramel 

Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.