Reading the Defense: Defensive Line Tiers (Post-OTA Update)

WHY TIERS?

Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by adding staffer comments, but it can be hard to see the all-important context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's critical to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.

That's where tiers are helpful.

Using tiers -- with or without commentary -- allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.

These tiers are based on 2014 expectation only and I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts later in the offseason). I will include a separate dynasty stash tier at the end of each positional article.

(The date on this article represents the last time the tiers were updated. Make sure you are viewing the most recent tier article by checking the complete IDP article list here.)

THIS IS THE POST-ota and minicamp UPDATE (early july)

We are now through the minicamp season and have seen each team's depth chart for the first time. There's still much left to learn, however, as some veteran players sat out OTAs with injuries. We've also seen the first iteration of changes to positional classifications at MFL. There's some inertia in those first movements, but not all of them should be considered set in stone.

Minicamps depth charts and reports shuffled a few players among these tiers, but the first days of training camp will answer the pressing questions that are keeping the tier jumper and watch list groups so deep. 

I've added a column to address trends inside and throughout the tiers. I'll add a ^^^^ for those players making a move up in my tiers and vvvv for those players who have dropped since the previous tier release (June 1). For reference, I'm going to preserve the earlier versions of these tier articles, but the trend column should help you see where player movement is happening within the tiers at a quick glance. 

In this post-minicamp set of tier articles, I'm also adding an ADP column. The ADP number (snapshot taken on July 5) will be an average of our FBG rankings, the FantasyPros Consensus Rankings and ADP data from recent drafts at MFL. If a player does not have an ADP in his column, it means he wasn't ranked in the top 60 in at least two of the three consensus rank lists.

TIER 1 | ELITE DL1

This tier includes a group of defensive ends that are high ceiling, high floor options in any league setup. There may be players in the next tier you're comfortable elevating, but you'll have trouble convincing yourself that a player from this group is less than a strong DL1.

TIER 2 | ELITE DL1 UPSIDE

This is the beauty of the tier approach. I have the higher floor players listed nearer the top here, but there's not much difference between the top of this group and the bottom.

TIER 3A | DL2 W/ DL1 UPSIDE

In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the High Variance DL2 and High Floor DL2 tiers. There isn't much difference between Charles Johnson (in this tier) and Carlos Dunlap (in the tier above). And that's just one example. In general, I think the players in the tier above have a higher ceiling than those here. It's arguable that those higher ceiling players also have a lower floor than the top players in this tier. When you make your final tier lists, do so with your own draft philosophy in mind. If you'd rather have the higher percentage player, move those players you don't trust down into a more appropriate tier.

TIER 3B | HIGH VARIANCE DL2

In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the DL2 with DL1 Upside and High Floor DL2 tiers. This group is scoring system sensitive. They'd rank higher in this large tier in sack-heavy scoring leagues, lower in tackle-heavy systems. Willie Young and Wallace Gilberry are particularly attractive and will move up if OTA reports suggest they will get a heavy rotational role and can be projected to see 700-800 snaps.

TIER 3C | HIGH FLOOR DL2

In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the DL2 with DL1 Upside and High Variance DL2 tiers. This tier is light right now. I like the ceiling of Wilkerson, Griffen, Tuck and Clayborn too much to drop them into this group. And I don't like the floor of the large group of ends in the tier that follows.

TIER 4 | DL3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE

This group looks weaker than recent years. But we're now over 30 players deep in the tier list -- even if Umenyiora and Peppers are reclassified to outside linebacker as I expect. If you're drafting today, especially in dynasty leagues, ignore this group in favor of the tier jumper and dynasty watch lists to follow.

TIER JUMPERS | REDRAFT WATCH LIST

These players will move into a tier based on their performance in OTAs, minicamps and early training camp. If you've got roster space, consider this your pre-camp news sleeper list.

DYNASTY STASH

This list was short before the draft. Unfortunately, the draft didn't add many prospects to the mix. Shallow dynasty owners will have some of the above tier available to them. Deep dynasty owners should be looking at any rookie from 2013 still on an NFL roster (e.g. Cornelius Washington, Malliciah Goodman).

DT TARGETS

The top three names on this list -- Geno Atkins, Gerald McCoy and Ndamukong Suh would slot in the High Variance DL2 tier. The rest of the list is part of the matchup cloud in combined DE/DT leagues. Dynasty leaguers in DT-required leagues shouldn't hold a roster spot for anyone not on this list if there are waiver wire options of value at other positions.

Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.