Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Away | Game Total | Team Total | Running | Pass | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | Houston | -14 | 44 | 29 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
| Oakland | Washington | -3.5 | 54.5 | 29 | +++ | +++ | |
| Green Bay | Cincinnati | -9 | 46.5 | 27.75 | +++ | +++ | + |
| Atlanta | Detroit | -3 | 50.5 | 26.75 | ++ | ++ | |
| Carolina | New Orleans | -5.5 | 46.5 | 26 | ++ | ++ | |
| Pittsburgh | Chicago | -7.5 | 44 | 25.75 | ++ | ++ | + |
| Washington | Oakland | 3.5 | 54.5 | 25.5 | + | + | |
| Kansas City | LA Chargers | -3.5 | 47.5 | 25.5 | + | + | |
| Dallas | Arizona | -3.5 | 47 | 25.25 | + | + | |
| Miami | NY Jets | -6 | 43 | 24.5 | ++ | + | + |
| Philadelphia | NY Giants | -6 | 42.5 | 24.25 | ++ | + | + |
| Detroit | Atlanta | 3 | 50.5 | 23.75 | |||
| Tennessee | Seattle | -2.5 | 42.5 | 22.5 | |||
| LA Chargers | Kansas City | 3.5 | 47.5 | 22 | |||
| Arizona | Dallas | 3.5 | 47 | 21.75 | |||
| Baltimore | Jacksonville | -4 | 39.5 | 21.75 | ++ | ||
| Minnesota | Tampa Bay | -2 | 41 | 21.5 | |||
| Denver | Buffalo | -3 | 40 | 21.5 | + | ||
| LA Rams | San Francisco | -3 | 40 | 21.5 | + | ||
| Cleveland | Indianapolis | -1 | 41 | 21 | |||
| New Orleans | Carolina | 5.5 | 46.5 | 20.5 | |||
| Seattle | Tennessee | 2.5 | 42.5 | 20 | |||
| Indianapolis | Cleveland | 1 | 41 | 20 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Minnesota | 2 | 41 | 19.5 | |||
| Cincinnati | Green Bay | 9 | 46.5 | 18.75 | |||
| San Francisco | LA Rams | 3 | 40 | 18.5 | |||
| Buffalo | Denver | 3 | 40 | 18.5 | |||
| NY Jets | Miami | 6 | 43 | 18.5 | |||
| Chicago | Pittsburgh | 7.5 | 44 | 18.25 | |||
| NY Giants | Philadelphia | 6 | 42.5 | 18.25 | |||
| Jacksonville | Baltimore | 4 | 39.5 | 17.75 | |||
| Houston | New England | 14 | 44 | 15 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Derek Carr (Raiders), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
- Running Back: Mike Gillislee (Patriots), Marshawn Lynch (Raiders), Ty Montgomery (Packers)
- Receivers: Brandin Cooks/Chris Hogan/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree/Jared Cook (Raiders), Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams/Geronimo Allison/Martellus Bennett (Packers)
- Defense: Patriots
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Cam Newton (Panthers), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Jonathan Stewart/Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), LeVeon Bell (Steelers), Jay Ajayi (Dolphins), Darren Sproles (Eagles)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Kelvin Benjamin/Devin Funchess/Ed Dickson (Panthers), Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant/Jesse James (Steelers),
- Defense: Ravens
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Kirk Cousins (Redskins), Alex Smith (Chiefs), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Jay Cutler (Dolphins), Carson Wentz (Eagles)
- Running Back: Rob Kelley (Redskins), Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys)
- Receivers: Terrelle Pryor/Jamison Crowder/Jordan Reed (Redskins), Tyreek Hill/Chris Conley/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams/Jason Witten (Cowboys), DeVante Parker/Jarvis Landry/Julius Thomas (Dolphins), Alshon Jeffery/Torrey Smith/Zach Ertz (Eagles)
- Defense: Eagles, Steelers, Dolphins, Broncos, Rams, Packers
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