Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Away | Game Total | Team Total | Running | Pass | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | Carolina | -9 | 48.5 | 28.75 | +++ | +++ | |
| Atlanta | Buffalo | -8 | 48.5 | 28.25 | +++ | +++ | |
| Kansas City | Washington | -6.5 | 49.5 | 28 | +++ | +++ | |
| Seattle | Indianapolis | -13 | 41.5 | 27.25 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
| Dallas | LA Rams | -6 | 47.5 | 26.75 | ++ | ++ | |
| New Orleans | Miami | -3 | 49.5 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
| Green Bay | Chicago | -7 | 45 | 26 | ++ | ++ | |
| Arizona | San Francisco | -7 | 44.5 | 25.75 | + | + | + |
| Denver | Oakland | -3 | 47 | 25 | + | + | |
| LA Chargers | Philadelphia | -1 | 47.5 | 24.25 | + | + | |
| Tampa Bay | NY Giants | -3 | 44 | 23.5 | |||
| Miami | New Orleans | 3 | 49.5 | 23.25 | |||
| Philadelphia | LA Chargers | 1 | 47.5 | 23.25 | |||
| Tennessee | Houston | -1.5 | 44 | 22.75 | |||
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | -3 | 42 | 22.5 | |||
| Minnesota | Detroit | -1 | 44 | 22.5 | |||
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | -3.5 | 41.5 | 22.5 | |||
| Oakland | Denver | 3 | 47 | 22 | |||
| Jacksonville | NY Jets | -3.5 | 39.5 | 21.5 | ++ | ||
| Washington | Kansas City | 6.5 | 49.5 | 21.5 | |||
| Detroit | Minnesota | 1 | 44 | 21.5 | |||
| Houston | Tennessee | 1.5 | 44 | 21.25 | |||
| LA Rams | Dallas | 6 | 47.5 | 20.75 | |||
| NY Giants | Tampa Bay | 3 | 44 | 20.5 | |||
| Buffalo | Atlanta | 8 | 48.5 | 20.25 | |||
| Carolina | New England | 9 | 48.5 | 19.75 | |||
| Baltimore | Pittsburgh | 3 | 42 | 19.5 | |||
| Cleveland | Cincinnati | 3.5 | 41.5 | 19 | + | ||
| Chicago | Green Bay | 7 | 45 | 19 | |||
| San Francisco | Arizona | 7 | 44.5 | 18.75 | |||
| NY Jets | Jacksonville | 3.5 | 39.5 | 18 | |||
| Indianapolis | Seattle | 13 | 41.5 | 14.25 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Alex Smith (Chiefs), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Mike Gillislee (Patriots), Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), Chris Carson (Seahawks)
- Receivers: Brandin Cooks/Chris Hogan/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Tyreek Hill/Chris Conley/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Doug Baldwin/Paul Richardson Jr/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks)
- Defense: Seahawks
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Drew Brees (Saints), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
- Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Mark Ingram/Adrian Peterson (Saints), Ty Montgomery (Packers)
- Receivers: Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Michael Thomas/Ted Ginn Jr/Coby Fleener (Saints), Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams/Geronimo Allison/Martellus Bennett (Packers)
- Defense: Jaguars
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Trevor Siemian (Broncos), Phillip Rivers (Chargers)
- Running Back: Chris Johnson (Cardinals), C.J. Anderson (Broncos), Melvin Gordon (Chargers)
- Receivers: Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown/J.J. Nelson (Cardinals), Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders/Bennie Fowler (Broncos), Keenan Allen/Tyrell Williams/Antonio Gates (Chargers)
- Defense: Cardinals, Browns
