NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. Success in these contests doesn't come from blindly following median projections, but from creating leverage and building unique rosters. Fading the most popular plays can be risky, yet the biggest edges usually come from identifying the right low-rostered pivots and pairing them creatively with the slate's juggernauts.
With both DraftKings and FanDuel now using similar formats — a multiplier slot (Captain/MVP) that costs 1.5x salary and earns 1.5x points — the nuances between sites come down to scoring systems and contest dynamics. DraftKings' full PPR scoring and larger prize pools reward a slightly different decision-making process than FanDuel's half-PPR and softer fields, but the core principles of Showdown roster construction apply across both.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash builds, median projections remain your best guide. For head-to-head contests, consider projections as well, but when two players have similar projections, side with the lower-rostered option.
Game Scripting and Roster Construction
Atlanta enters Thursday about as banged up in confidence as a team can be. A new coaching staff, an unresolved quarterback situation, and a 34-3 home loss to Carolina just five days ago have this looking like a team searching for answers on a short week. Green Bay isn't exactly inspiring more faith, having lost to a backup quarterback in Week 1 before needing overtime to get past a Jets team that entered with little going for it.
Vegas has the Packers as 6-point favorites, projecting a 25.3-19.3 final, and I think that number is closer than the Packers' talent gap would suggest, mostly because this doubles as Green Bay's home opener. Michael Penix Jr. returns to try to fix Atlanta's offense, but a career completion percentage below 60% and a 4-8 record as a starter make it hard to bet on a turnaround happening this week. I'll side with Vegas here: Packers 21, Falcons 10.
Build around Bijan Robinson. He's the one player who makes this Atlanta offense function, and he belongs in every lineup you build regardless of team distribution. Speaking of which, lean Packers this week, both because I expect Green Bay to control the game and because with the scoring capped on both sides, defenses and kickers are firmly in play in a way they aren't most weeks. This is a week where leaving some salary on the table won't cost you much on the scoring end, so don't be afraid to do it in search of differentiation.
Injury Roundup
Atlanta's defense is dealing with real thin spots up top. A.J. Terrell Jr. landed on IR this week, handing his starting cornerback job to C.J. Henderson, and rookie edge rusher James Pearce Jr. remains out on an eight-game suspension. Neither shows up on this week's practice report, where Samson Ebukam is the only name listed, but both are real absences that should give Jordan Love a cleaner pocket and an easier read on the perimeter than a healthy Atlanta secondary would allow.
Green Bay's most consequential absences cut both ways. Jayden Reed is out at WR3, opening cheap, low-owned volume for Skyy Moore and Bo Melton. Micah Parsons remains out on PUP, removing Green Bay’s most dangerous individual pass rusher, and with Zach Bako-Bewele and Aaron Banks both out up front, the Packers' own run game is compromised enough that it could push this offense into more pass-heavy situations than usual, a sneaky-good spot against an Atlanta secondary that's already shaky without Terrell.
Captain Considerations
Falcons Showdown Players
Quarterback
Michael Penix Jr. (FLEX)
One of the more difficult decisions on the board for Thursday night: Should you roster Michael Penix Jr. in his first start in nearly 10 months? Or should you fade him and his sizeable salary in a hostile environment until his team demonstrates that it can consistently move the sticks? I am leaning toward the latter.
Nothing about Penix's performance to date should excite a DFS player. He has a career completion rate around 60% with only 12 touchdown passes across 14 games and is not particularly mobile, so his fantasy upside would appear limited. I do, however, believe Atlanta's offense will be markedly better with Penix than it was with Cooper Rush under center, so this is not a summary dismissal of Penix as a Showdown option. Instead, it is a suggestion to limit exposure until we see him settle into the offense and demonstrate a ceiling worthy of his salary.
DFS Takeaway: Penix should improve Atlanta's offense, but his limited rushing upside, modest career production, and sizeable salary make him a difficult player to prioritize in his first start back.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson (CPT or FLEX)
The Falcons' best chance of keeping this game close is to feed their offensive juggernaut and let him make plays. Bijan Robinson should have fresh legs this week after being spelled by Brian Robinson Jr. (no relation) during Sunday's blowout loss. In Week 1, Bijan posted 31.3 DraftKings points against the Steelers, piling up more than 170 all-purpose yards while catching eight passes.
I will stop short of projecting a similar stat line Thursday against the Packers, but I do expect 25+ opportunities against a defense that has forced only one takeaway and allowed 56 points through its first two games. Put him in every lineup and let your opponents beat you elsewhere.
DFS Takeaway: Robinson's combination of rushing volume and receiving involvement gives him one of the safest floors and highest ceilings on the slate. He is the Falcon I am least interested in fading.
Wide Receivers
Drake London (FLEX)
Jahan Dotson (FLEX)
On a night where I am largely fading the Falcons and their passing game, we still need to identify the pieces most likely to matter on a Showdown slate with only two teams. Drake London is the clear top-end receiver for Atlanta, but he comes with a hefty $8.8K salary and questions surrounding a quarterback who has not played since Week 11 of 2025. London could very well finish with double-digit targets and reach the 100-yard bonus against Green Bay, but game strategy argues for considering a fade at elevated ownership and hoping he settles into something closer to a 5/50/0 stat line, which he did in roughly half of Penix's starts last season.
As for Jahan Dotson, it is difficult to get excited about a receiver with just one touchdown across 36 games over the past two-plus seasons. That said, he is playing roughly 90% of Atlanta's offensive snaps and is modestly priced at $3.0K. If you need the salary relief, I am fine rostering him and hoping for a 6-10 point performance that does not require a touchdown.
DFS Takeaway: London remains the clear alpha receiver, but his salary and likely ownership make him a viable strategic fade. Dotson offers a cheaper path to Atlanta's passing game and can return value on volume alone.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts Sr. (FLEX)
As a big fan of Kyle Pitts Sr., it's difficult for me to advise you to think twice about rostering him Thursday night. Pitts would be far better off wearing another uniform, but until he does, he's stuck with whoever happens to be under center for Atlanta on any given Sunday or, in this case, Thursday.
Pitts finished as the league's TE3 in fantasy scoring last year, which will make him a popular option this week, but we should not discount the fact that the majority of his fantasy production came with Kirk Cousins, not Michael Penix Jr., under center in 2025. With Cousins at quarterback, Pitts averaged 16.8 DraftKings points per game; with Penix tossing the ball, that number fell to 9.6, a decline of roughly 43%.
DFS Takeaway: Pitts still has enough talent and name recognition to draw plenty of ownership, but his production with Penix has been materially worse. At elevated popularity, that makes him a much easier fade than his TE3 finish from last season might suggest.
Under the Radar
Olamide Zaccheaus (FLEX...maybe)
Chris Blair (FLEX...maybe)
It was difficult to recommend either of the Falcons' starting wide receivers, so it's particularly revolting to consider their tertiary options for Showdown contests. That said, Olamide Zaccheaus and Chris Blair are uber-cheap at $2.0K and $1.0K, respectively, and both could run a dozen routes Thursday night, perhaps more if Atlanta falls behind early. Zaccheaus returns to Atlanta after spending the past three seasons elsewhere; if I'm picking one of these as a flyer, he gets the nod simply because of the familiarity factor.
DFS Takeaway: Neither player warrants much exposure, but Zaccheaus is the preferred punt if you need extreme salary relief and want a cheap piece of a pass-heavy Atlanta game script.
Packers Showdown Players
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