Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Away | Game Total | Team Total | Running | Pass | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | Tampa Bay | -7 | 51 | 29 | +++ | +++ | |
| Houston | Indianapolis | -7 | 46 | 26.5 | ++ | ++ | + |
| Seattle | Washington | -7 | 45 | 26 | ++ | ++ | + |
| Kansas City | Dallas | 0 | 51.5 | 25.75 | + | + | |
| Dallas | Kansas City | 0 | 51.5 | 25.75 | + | + | |
| Philadelphia | Denver | -7.5 | 43.5 | 25.5 | + | + | + |
| Oakland | Miami | -3.5 | 44 | 23.75 | |||
| Tennessee | Baltimore | -4 | 43 | 23.5 | + | ||
| Buffalo | NY Jets | -3.5 | 42.5 | 23 | + | ||
| Detroit | Green Bay | -2.5 | 43.5 | 23 | |||
| LA Rams | NY Giants | -3.5 | 42 | 22.75 | + | ||
| Jacksonville | Cincinnati | -5.5 | 39 | 22.25 | ++ | ||
| Atlanta | Carolina | -1 | 43.5 | 22.25 | |||
| Tampa Bay | New Orleans | 7 | 51 | 22 | |||
| Carolina | Atlanta | 1 | 43.5 | 21.25 | |||
| Arizona | San Francisco | -2.5 | 39.5 | 21 | + | ||
| Green Bay | Detroit | 2.5 | 43.5 | 20.5 | |||
| Miami | Oakland | 3.5 | 44 | 20.25 | |||
| NY Jets | Buffalo | 3.5 | 42.5 | 19.5 | |||
| Baltimore | Tennessee | 4 | 43 | 19.5 | |||
| Indianapolis | Houston | 7 | 46 | 19.5 | |||
| NY Giants | LA Rams | 3.5 | 42 | 19.25 | |||
| Washington | Seattle | 7 | 45 | 19 | |||
| San Francisco | Arizona | 2.5 | 39.5 | 18.5 | |||
| Denver | Philadelphia | 7.5 | 43.5 | 18 | |||
| Cincinnati | Jacksonville | 5.5 | 39 | 16.75 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/Willie Snead/Ted Ginn Jr/Coby Fleener (Saints)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Savage (Texans), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Lamar Miller (Texans), Thomas Rawls/Eddie Lacy (Seahawks)
- Receivers: DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller/Ryan Griffin (Texans), Doug Baldwin/Tyler Lockett/Paul Richardson Jr/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks)
- Defense: Jaguars
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Alex Smith (Chiefs), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Carson Wentz (Eagles)
- Running Back: Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), Alfred Morris/Darren McFadden (Cowboys), Jay Ajayi/Wendell Smallwood (Eagles)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Albert Wilson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Zach Ertz (Eagles)
- Defense: Eagles, Cardinals, Seahawks, Rams, Texans, Titans, Bills