Thursday Night Football should be viewed as an island unto itself in the scope of the DFS NFL scene. With the Thursday Night game being nationally televised, representing the beginning of each week’s action, and being separated from the slate’s other games by multiple days, ownership of these players tends to be greater than it would be otherwise. As a result, the rostering decisions you make with respect to the Thursday Night game are far more binary than normal.
Each week, we’ll be previewing this game with the intention of finding cash game and GPP plays. However, because of the higher ownership that comes with Thursday Night players, there are generally fewer contrarian options to target from this game, relative to the other games contained in a weekly slate. It follows that since top options from the Thursday Night game are going to have a greater rate of ownership than similarly valued pieces from other games, we will often recommend such players as cash game plays, as a means of preventing an early deficit across the majority of your cash games.
Concerning GPPs, you will notice that we tend to highlight few players from the Thursday Night game as ideal tournament options. Our Steve Buzzard wrote a great article on the importance and impact of selecting tournament plays that have are likely to have lower ownership. Applying that logic in practice, the decision to fade the popular players from Thursday night games, that we know are likely to be more heavily owned than they should be, can enhance your standing relative to the field far more than if this game was being played in a different timeslot.
GAME SCRIPT
This Thursday Night matchup between the Patriots and Texans has the Texans set as 1 point favorite with a game total of 40.5 points – making the implied score Texans 20.75 Patriots 19.75. Without any background on the early season saga of either team, this line might seem strange considering the Patriots’ perennial reputation and the Texans starting a generally unproven quarterback. However, with star Rob Gronkowski’s status very much up in the air for a third consecutive week, and the Patriots all but certain to start rookie Jacoby Brissett under center, this added context obviously greatly enhances the Texans’ chances of snatching victory.
Short passes and a power run game should be the expectation on the Patriots’ side, as they look to minimize the pressure and potential for mistakes that Brissett will be exposed to. Brock Osweiler has been good enough to navigate the Texans to a 2-0 record so far this year – though the credit for that probably belongs more to the talent around him and the play calling and game plan that we’ve grown accustomed to attributing to Bill O’Brien. This matchup should be fascinating to watch, even if the game on the surface isn’t the most aesthetically pleasing, one in which I see the Texans prevailing 21-16.
RUNNING GAME
While Legarrette Blount excelled last week – particularly after Jimmy Garoppolo left with an injured shoulder - running for 123 yards on 29 carries in total, I’m not expecting a similarly sublime performance this week. The Texans will game plan around not allowing themselves to be beaten by a power running game, and ideally funneling offensive responsibility to Jacoby Brissett. Whether that results in a successful short passing game or a gadget centric offensive performance, running Blount effectively without a semblance of a vertical threat doesn’t seem likely. Even though his role has been limited to start the year, as a result of the Patriots featuring Blount so actively, James White holds more intrigue for me this week, especially as a contrarian GPP play. Once Jacoby Brissett took over last week, the Patriots’ passing game effectively deteriorated into dump-off throws within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. While that may not be ideal for the Patriots’ chances of winning, the commitment that is likely to be made to the short passing game should feature White in a prominent role. I expect five catches to be the floor for White this week.
The Texans have clearly made the commitment to Lamar Miller in the early part of 2016 that the Dolphins never could – giving him 32 and 27 touches in the first two games, respectively. Realistically crafting a scenario in which Miller sees less than 20 touches this week is a difficult proposition. The Patriots are very unlikely to force the Texans to abandon the running game as a result of building a large lead. Additionally, even though the Patriots undoubtedly recognize the shortcomings of Brock Osweiler and will seek to expose them, the Texans have enough weapons in the passing game to keep their opponent from stacking the box. A similar output to what David Johnson achieved against the Patriots in week one (132 total yards on 23 touches) is probably at the higher end of the range of outcomes for Miller. That being said, with so many discounts materializing as a result of running back injuries across the league, the 2-3x value that Miller is likely to return isn’t as tempting as it might have otherwise been.
PASSING GAME
As much success as we have seen Patriots’ quarterbacks have in the team’s system, Jacoby Brissett can be avoided for DFS purposes this week – even at his very inviting price tag. It’s not that I don’t think that the Patriots can craft a gameplan that gives Brissett a chance to be successful, but rather that I think that such success would involve almost exclusively passes around the line of scrimmage amounting to very little statistical output for Brissett. If conservative play calling isn’t enough of a threat, there’s also the threat of Julian Edelman seeing plays, packages, or potentially even series at the quarterback position. In most circumstances, I would highlight the opportunity for a receiver to see snaps at quarterback as a potentially seismic shift in their fantasy value. However, with Edelman he is likely to already be so ingrained into the team’s plans for Thursday, as the key man in the team’s short passing game, the added value that he would attain from playing quarterback would likely only be marginal in comparison to the opportunity cost of plays that could result in passes being thrown his way. Edelman should push for 10 catches, but yards are a definitive concern, as it wouldn’t be surprising to see him average even less than the 10 yards per catch that he is currently registering through two weeks. I don’t see him as having a ton of upside given the circumstances, and won’t be working him into any tournament lineups, but this game script certainly sets up for him to return solid value in cash games.
Even if Rob Gronkowski is active, I’m not recommending him given his exorbitant salary, and questions at the quarterback position, his snap count, and his actual health. Personally, I think that the Patriots will approach this game conservatively from a personnel standpoint, and be creative within the construct of the actual play calling, in order to maximize their changes to win this game while also maintaining a focus on the big picture. Accordingly, I do not expect Gronkowski to be active for this week’s game. Martellus Bennett saw success in the screen game last week after Jimmy Garoppolo left the game, but I’m not willing to bank on a bevy of designed screens as the main source of my tight end deriving fantasy value. Many weeks, the tight end position for the Patriots will be a source of ‘fantasy gold’ but I do not think this is one of them.
The Texans have surrounded Brock Osweiler with serious talent, but to this point he’s proven that he can merely avoid falling down rather than truly succeed. In two games, Osweiler is averaging 250 yards and has three touchdowns to his name – truly pedestrian numbers. In the right week, whether it be an instance in which we could reasonably expect the Texans to fall into a big, early deficit, or Osweiler was tasked with facing a miserable pass defense, the Texans quarterback might have appeal as a mid-tier play with upside, but this week I’m expecting another decidedly ordinary effort.
Though season-long owners can’t complain about the start of DeAndre Hopkins’ 2016 season, he’s yet to have a performance that would justify his hefty DFS salary. This week, I think that more of the same should be expected: a solid, yet unspectacular performance. The Patriots have yet to shut down a team’s number one passing game option in 2016, allowing Larry Fitzgerald to post an 8-81-1 line and giving up 10 catches and 137 yards to Jarvis Landry. Hopkins should find success, but the game script that led to his signature performance last season was usually the Texans falling into a large deficit and chucking the ball in his direction for much of the second half of the game. With this Thursday’s game likely to be very close, I don’t see Hopkins seeing the target volume to result in an elite performance that would justify his salary.
Will Fuller’s price hasn’t quite caught up with his awesome early season performance. Though his stat line has been consistent through two weeks, his game is primarily dependent on long passes, making it more difficult to rely on him for any sort of floor. Also of note, the Patriots have limited the two primary deep threats they’ve squared off against this season – giving up only one reception for 8 yards to John Brown and two catches for 39 yards to Kenny Stills. I will be limiting my exposure because of the proclivity that the Patriots have shown so far for taking away deep threats, but overall, Fuller is the one receiver from this game that I will be looking at in GPPs - as his upside is so very reachable if only a few of his targets hit.
SUMMARY
The most interesting aspect of this game will be how, and if, the Patriots execute a gameplan that allows them to effectively move the football with Jacoby Brissett at the helm. I expect James White and Julian Edelman to be focal points in this gameplan, and want at least some exposure to both. My main target from the Texans will be Will Fuller, in tournaments, as his exciting upside has yet to be truly factored into his salary.
