This week we discuss the following:
- Biggest surprise of the season
- Cardinals RBs
- Marvin Jones: Continuing Fantasy Value?
- Kenny Stills: Continuing Fantasy Value?
- Tom Brady vs. Steelers
- Andy Dalton a Top-12 QB?
- Cleveland Receivers with Jason Campbell
- Vincent Jackson vs. Richard Sherman
- Players returning soon
Biggest surprise of the season
We're at the halfway point of the season. With the first eight weeks in the books, what's been the biggest surprise so far — the thing that, if you'd been told before the season started that it would happen, you wouldn't have believed it?
Heath Cummings: For my money it has to be Tom Brady as QB23 through eight weeks. I was lower on Brady than a lot of people and had him as a borderline QB1, but he's been a borderline QB2. There's been a lot of talk about his lack of weapons and the unfortunate injuries in New England, but Brady hasn't been himself either. What's more, if you look at it on a per game basis, Brady is even worse than QB23, falling below Michael Vick, Terrelle Pryor, Jake Locker, and even Matt Schaub. A lot of people expected Brady's numbers to improve once Gronkowski returned, but they haven't at all. No quarterback has started the last two weeks and scored fewer fantasy points than Brady.
Jason Wood: I would have to say how completely inept the RB position has become. I look around all my leagues at the rosters and am stunned at how seemingly 80% of teams (both contenders and losers) appear to have terrible RB depth. We're at a point where merely having RBs that are guaranteed 12-15 touches makes them a viable option in your lineup. That's unheard of. Long gone are the days when we were disappointed when a RB in our lineup failed to give us 100 yards or at least one TD.
Greg Russell: I agree with Heath that the Patriots offense is the biggest surprise, but I am going to expand it past Brady to include Bill Belichick. I think the coaching staff did a poor job of adapting their offense to their personnel, particularly early in the season. The first few games in were filled with passes where Brady clearly expected his receiver to run a different option on his route than the receiver did. Surely the coaching staff had to have seen this in practice and preseason? It seemed like it took too many games before the Patriots simplified the offense to match where they were as an offensive unit. Even after making those adjustments, the Patriots still are not performing at the level you would expect one of the best quarterbacks of all time to be able to carry a team to.
Maurile Tremblay: My vote goes to the Kansas City Chiefs starting the season 8-0. That defense is for real, and Alex Smith has shown more athleticism than I remember seeing from him in San Francisco. He's been very effective running the ball. As a passer, he's been dumping the ball off to his running backs and his underneath receivers a lot. No real surprise there, but the offense has been more efficient than I would have expected given the near complete disappearance of Dwayne Bowe. Everyone expected the Broncos to run away with the AFC West, and the Broncos indeed look like a powerhouse. But it's the Chiefs who are the last remaining unbeaten team in the league. I don't think anybody saw that coming. I sure didn't.
Cardinals RBs
The Cardinals have a bye this week, but then face HOU, JAX, IND, PHI, STL the next five games — some juicy matchups for RBs. Is Andre Ellington going to get enough touches to be a fantasy starter down the stretch, or will Rashard Mendenhall (or maybe Stepfan Taylor) get too many carries?
Dave Larkin: I don't think Ellington owners need to be worried about Stepfan Taylor and Rashard Mendenhall; neither back is the dynamic talent that Ellington is. The rookie's consistency from week to week is very impressive indeed; he has not disgraced himself in pass protection, has contributed in the passing game (despite five drops) and has the potential to explode for a massive yardage total in any given week (as he showed against Atlanta).
What this comes down to is the Arizona offensive line and whether they can establish a rhythm in a game. The Cardinals have only run the ball 184 times this season, and generally they are not in a position to pound the football at the end of games. That factor alone would turn me off calling Ellington a week-in, week-out fantasy starter. If you don't mind a boom-bust factor in your running backs, however, Ellington is your man.
Heath Cummings: I see Ellington as a boom-or-bust play from this point forward. I'm still not convinced Arians thinks he can handle a full workload, which is sad because Ellington is clearly the most talented back on the roster. The odds are that Ellington has already had his most productive game of 2013. While he should be more productive than he was the first seven games of the season, I would project he'll average around nine fantasy points per game in the second half, with a couple of 15+ games and a couple below six.
Jason Wood: In the traditional lens we view fantasy football, I would be inclined to say he's not going to get enough touches to matter as an every week starter. BUT...we're not in Kansas anymore. At this point, any RB who's going to get 12-15 touches and be productive with them has a very viable chance to justifiably start in 12-team leagues. There are so many injuries and disappointments that I would be thrilled to have Ellington on my roster right now (same goes for the likes of Zac Stacy). The schedule looks good and realistically he's not in line to lose touches in the coming weeks, he's just not a candidate to gain touches at the expense of his less-talented but bigger teammates.
Matt Waldman: I think Bruce Arians sees Ellington has a more physically talented Mewelde Moore back in his days coaching the Steelers. I think Scott Pianowski of Yahoo!, who joined Sigmund Bloom and me On The Couch this week, stated it best: We all see that Ellington has talent and he's making the most of his opportunities, but perhaps all this is doing is reinforcing Arians' perspective that limiting the back's touches is actually good for his efficiency. We may not agree as fantasy owners — I don't — but it doesn't mean Arians is going to veer from Mendenhall and Taylor as committee options.
Greg Russell: If Mendenhall is able to stay on the field, I expect that owners depending on Ellington are going to feel frustration similar to what Spiller and Charles owners have felt in past years as they watched an explosive player lose a lot of opportunities over the course of each game. Ellington should still be worth starting in a number of games, but it will take more injuries in Arizona for him to get enough touches to carry a fantasy team on his shoulders.
Marvin Jones: Continuing Fantasy Value?
Marvin Jones had eight catches for 122 yards and four TDs on Sunday. Will he have fantasy value the rest of the way?
Heath Cummings: I don't know how he couldn't have at least some value but he's not going to turn into anything more than a flex in my opinion. He still only played 19 plays this week, and it's going to be difficult to very productive with 20 snaps a week. If Jones can clearly edge out Sanu for WR2 in Cincinnati then the situation grows much more promising.
Jason Wood: Jones will clearly have value, but based on what I'm seeing in terms of trade offers and free agent bids, his value is being massively overstated right now. If you're looking at Jones as a high risk/high reward WR3 the rest of the way, bully for you. But if you think you've landed an every week WR1-WR2 from here on out, you should do yourselves a favor and trade him away before you're dragged back down to reality. Jones scored four times in 19 snaps this past week. That's an anomaly no matter how you try to massage things. Do I think he has earned more snaps and more touches? Absolutely. But if we don't see him get a meaningful increase in snaps, you really can't expect him to be much more than a 3-5 catch guy most weeks. Good? Sure. Great? Nope.
Matt Waldman: Yes. I agree with Wood that expectations of Jones as a WR1 aren't likely, especially with A.J. Green as the primary option. That said, Randy Moss-Cris Carter, Marvin Harrison-Reggie Wayne-Pierre Garcon, Eric Decker-Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker-Randy Moss, Chad Johnson-T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Isaac Bruce-Torry Holt, and Roddy White-Julio Jones are just a small sample size of receiving duos that posted WR1 production from both flanks of the line of scrimmage. The common factor? Excellent quarterback play and some run-pass balance.
Does Cincinnati have the potential to surprise and continue playing this well? Sure, but I'm not counting on it. What I am counting on is taking the target data with a grain of salt. The reason is the context behind these targets. In two of the past four games, the Bengals had at least a 14-point lead entering the fourth quarter. Jones did most of his damage last week in the first half. Cian Fahey is posting an analysis of the Bengals passing game that will illustrate that Jones has been a primary option on a high percentage of his recent targets. This context indicates, trust from the quarterback, the offensive coordinator, and the developing trend that Jones is capable of reliable production.
To add one more layer of context, Jones may earn his looks against number two cornerbacks in single coverage, but his catches weren't easy targets. He's showing the same skills he displayed at Cal: excellent boundary awareness, skill to adjust his body to the football and win it in coverage, and shiftiness after the catch. Jones has always reminded me of a player with Donald Driver's type of skills. Driver had three seasons as a fantasy WR1 and three as a fantasy WR2 and this included playing in the shadow of more touted receivers.
I feel optimistic about WR2 production, although I'd try to acquire him at WR3 value.
Kenny Stills: Continuing Fantasy Value?
Same question for Kenny Stills after his big performance on Sunday.
Dave Larkin: I wouldn't count on it. Stills has only 22 targets all season, of which he has caught 13. The variance from week to week for him in the high-octane Saints offense is too difficult to count on. The only opening for increased snaps for the rookie would be if Jimmy Graham's injury cost him game time.
Heath Cummings: I like Stills' upside better than Jones if only because Marques Colston has looked like he's running in quicksand this year. It's always been difficult to guess which receiver Drew Brees is going to lean on which week, but the Saints offense should be more productive than the Bengals and Stills has less quality competition.
Jason Wood: Stills in in a different situation in my opinion because Marques Colston has looked terrible and the Saints have a long history of throwing a ton of yards each and every week. Brees will throw for 5,000 yards and 40+ TDs which means even a WR3 can have relevance. Plus I think Stills' skill set is such that he can/should overtake the starting tandem very soon, if not this week. I would be trying to acquire him, but I fear after his big week the value may have dried up.
Matt Waldman: Stills is more boom-or-bust because he's targeted as a deep threat. But as boom-or-bust threats go, a deep threat with proven skills to win the ball in coverage playing with Drew Brees, one of the best vertical passers in football, might not be as inconsistent as we think. With Jimmy Graham dealing with that plantar fascia that will limit his explosiveness down the seam, Stills and Lance Moore might be the most reliable intermediate and deep threats the Saints have right now. If you look at Moore's stats last year, you'll see he certainly did a good job in the vertical game and that Saints didn't shy away from challenging the deep zones of defenses without a more traditional, tall-fast receiver. I'll ride Stills as a WR3.
Greg Russell: I have been a big fan of Stills since preseason, though the number of capable receivers on the Saints is going to stunt his fantasy value through the end of the season. The return of Lance Moore in particular will keep Stills targets frustratingly down. I love Stills potential in dynasty and deep keeper leagues though, and he should have a few starter caliber games the rest of the way. They will be very difficult to predict, however.
Tom Brady vs. Steelers
Where do you rank Tom Brady as a fantasy QB against the Steelers this week?
Dave Larkin: Frankly, I don't trust Tom Brady at all at the moment. People have been making excuses for him in the fantasy community, but it is time we face up to the fact that his level of play has simply deteriorated. The return of Rob Gronkowski is a massive coup — and the pair were close to connecting on a couple of big plays last week — but it seems this offense is leaning more on the ground game at the moment. The Steelers, while not the dominant force of old, are still a solid enough defense to cause Brady problems.
Heath Cummings: Tom Brady has barely been a QB2 this season and the last two weeks haven't given us any reason to think that's changing. I'd rank Brady in the high teens to low 20s.
Jason Wood: Brady needs to be on a playoff contending team's bench until we see him turn things around. If you're relying on Brady as your starter and still find yourself in the playoff hunt, congratulations on a superior draft at the other positions. I wouldn't start Brady this week unless I had no alternatives.
Matt Waldman: In the bottom fifth of the top 25. Picture the Patriots offense as an office and Tom Brady as a manager with 4-5 new employees who are charged with tasks that impacted Brady's performance, but he never even had to think about because he had long-time, go-to options who were reliable. Suddenly, Brady has to spend a lot of time teaching these 4-5 new employees every day, pointing out little things that he used to take for granted. He's so concerned about whether these new guys will do their job that it's slowing down his process. At an office, if you have 4-5 new employees who have small questions as they are learning the gig, it can slow down your day if you're the only person answering every question. Suddenly you've lost hours of productivity each week until they get on the tick. In football, it means poor timing on routes that not only come with WR mistakes, but Brady over-thinking and hesitating just enough to be out of rhythm with his receivers, the pass rush, and his release.
Greg Russell: I had Brady as a poor QB2 at best this week, and that was before more questions about Gronkowski's health have arisen. His receivers are an obvious large part of the problem, but Brady has not looked like himself either. Brady has always been able to make teams pay for blitzing him in the past, but this year he has been quite vulnerable in that regard. Obviously the loss of a quick receiver off the line like Wes Welker is a big factor, but Brady's accuracy also seems to be contributing. I own Brady in a start-two QB dynasty league, and have three options I would go with over Brady this week, including Josh McCown. That's how far Brady's performance has dropped.
Andy Dalton a Top-12 QB?
Is Andy Dalton a top-twelve fantasy QB going forward?
Heath Cummings: Absolutely. Dalton is on quite a hot streak, and it's not one that is totally sustainable. That being said, he's shown signs of progress and he has young weapons developing around him. I have no problem putting Dalton in the 7-10 range for the rest of the year.
Jason Wood: Probably right around there. I have to laugh though because we're always telling our customers to 'buy low, sell high' and then here we are re-setting Dalton's value in what by all accounts is a peak of his value. He's not going to continue putting up 350 yards and 3+ TDs. Yet we're basically all now treating that like it's his new baseline. Caveat emptor.
Matt Waldman: Yes. The biggest reason I like Marvin Jones is that Dalton is showing that he trust's the receiver on some tougher targets. Once a quarterback gets to the point that he's allowing multiple receivers to "win" the ball, opposing defenses will begin to have difficulty with that quarterback. Dalton isn't a great quarterback, but he's becoming a more consistent player because he has more players he can trust in roles that just aren't set, predictable routes. Jones can make plays everywhere on the field. Now there are two outside receivers Dalton will target this way, which makes the offense that much more unpredictable.
Cleveland Receivers with Jason Campbell
Do Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron get a bump due to Jason Campbell?
Heath Cummings: Gordon was WR6 and Cameron was TE3 before Campbell took over as the starter. I can't bump them any higher than that, but I think the encouraging thing is that we may not have to downgrade them despite the fact that the Browns are on their third QB this year.
Jason Wood: They don't get a bump, but at least it looks like they don't take a hit. A week ago most pundits, ourselves included, were suggesting that Campbell's presence in the huddle meant real problems for Gordon in particular (because Campbell is known as a guy who checks down a lot) yet after one start it appears Campbell realizes where his bread will be buttered.
Matt Waldman: I wrote about this in my weekly Gut Check column. They don't get a bump, but there is potential for them to retain enough value that trading them might not be a great option unless you're getting WR2 or TE1 value for them. I think Cameron will lose less value than Gordon because the tight end is just as likely to see check-downs as he'll see intermediate/deep targets. The Browns relied on a lot of rub routes and some trickery to get Josh Gordon open deep. This wasn't due to any issues Gordon is having. The play calls were often on run downs or deceptive plays designed to give Campbell that extra space in the pocket to throw the deep ball. Although Campbell has a yards per catch average in the NFL in the range of six yards, he averaged well over eight yards — even 10 yards per catch as a senior — at Auburn. Campbell throws a good deep ball when he has space in the pocket and the Browns' line is better at providing this space than the teams Campbell played for in the past.
Still, I'm not bumping Gordon or Cameron. I'd consider Gordon a low-end WR2-WR3 with boom-or-bust production despite the fact he's the No.13 fantasy WR at this point of the season despite missing those two games due to suspension. Campbell has start hitting those first-down intermediate passes to Gordon for me to feel safer about the prospect of Gordon retaining his low-end WR1 value.
Vincent Jackson vs. Richard Sherman
What are your projections for Vincent Jackson going against Richard Sherman this week? More generally, how much does the quality of an opponent's defense (or one of its defensive players) affect your view of a player's fantasy prospects in any given week?
Heath Cummings: Jackson and the Tampa Bay offense will struggle against the Seahawks in Seattle. I would project something like a 4-58-0 for Jackson despite the fact that he'll probably see double-digit targets. If Seattle had a little better offense I'd be more encouraged by the possibility of garbage time for Jackson, but judging by Monday night that doesn't look likely. For the truly elite players I try not to let matchups factor in, but for mid-level WR1s with bad quarterbacks, it's hard not to shy away from a corner like Sherman.
Jason Wood: The vast majority of defensive backs aren't game changers for fantasy purposes. But Richard Sherman is in that rare company right now. But let's be realistic. There are six teams on bye this week and chances are if you have Vincent Jackson you simply cannot afford to bench him. You just have to assume he stands a chance of not giving you elite WR1 numbers this week, and your head-to-head win will have to come from big weeks elsewhere in your lineup.
Matt Waldman: In most cases I'd start Jackson regardless of his draw of Sherman and big corner Brandon Browner, but I'm a leery about it this week. Generally, I factor an opponent's defense on the quality of the match ups, but it's good to remember that most offenses find a way to move the receiver to an area where he draws a mismatch. Rarely do defenses have a cornerback that they'll stick to one receiver no matter what. The Jets did it with Revis. Sherman is capable. Even if the Seahawks don't do this, Brandon Browner is good enough with Earl Thomas over top at safety that I can't fathom Seattle giving up a huge play to Jackson now that Michael Williams is out. I'd go elsewhere.
Greg Russell: A team would have to be quite rich at wide receiver to even consider benching Jackson. For one, Seattle does not always stick Sherman exclusively on the other team's best receiver. But beyond that, I think most fantasy owners put too much stock into a team's defensive ranking, myself included. Performance of individual players is so difficult to predict, and when we see that ranking it feels like something solid compared to most of the other factors we deal with. I think we tend to over emphasize it as a result.
Players returning soon
Whenever Percy Harvin returns, how will his presence change the dynamics of the Seattle offense?
Dave Larkin: Harvin will make a dramatic difference to the efficiency of the Seahawks offense. They have a talented enough receiving corps as it is, but none of them boast the mix of skills that Harvin does. Jermaine Kearse has proven to be a solid, big-bodied, box-out-defenders type, while Doug Baldwin is a between-the-hashes type. Golden Tate, meanwhile, has been a pleasant surprise and has picked up the slack since the Harvin injury news broke.
But Harvin's skill set will instantly endear him to Russell Wilson, who barely had time to get into a rhythm with his new toy before injury robbed him of a significant portion of camp. Once Harvin is up to speed from a playing speed standpoint, he and Wilson should form a nice connection. Harvin can attack defenses anywhere on the field and, indeed, from the backfield, if the Seahawks choose to deploy him in that role.
As for the run-pass balance, Seattle has actually not played well on the offensive line all year. Besides the consistent pressure given up by the front five, their run blocking has been poor in general. The Harvin factor could swing the offense to a Russell Wilson-oriented spread-based attack, but you have to wonder how long this could last considering the porous pass protection.
Jason Wood: We'll see. Harvin hasn't had ANY time to build rapport with Wilson or work within the confines of the Seattle offense. I realize he'll know the playbook, but I just look at the Seahawks (7-1) and think, "If it ain't broke..." He should add 30-45 yards per game to Russell Wilson's passing numbers, but whether he actually will deliver that kind of production remains to be seen.
Matt Waldman: Not as much as it would have if Sidney Rice was still healthy. With Rice, Tate, and Harvin all on the field, I think the defense's ability to guess run/pass or short pass/deep pass would have been far more difficult. Now, it's a matter of Harvin returning healthy enough to provide a presence all over the field. Since Harvin and Tate are both good after the catch, there could still be some good short-long guess work in the passing game for defenses that yield big plays. What's going to help the Seahawk offense most is when both of their tackles return and they don't have to start backups who aren't fit for the position.
Heath Cummings: The biggest change will be that Russell Wilson's lack of time in the pocket shouldn't be quite as big of a deal. Harvin is an elite playmaker when he's healthy and he excels on the type of short routes that Wilson needs to be throwing right now. Coming in this late in the season I have a hard time seeing Harvin make a huge impact, but he'll definitely make the offense better and provide a new wrinkle for the defense to contend with.
Greg Russell: I agree with Matt that the bigger impact will be the return of left tackle Russell Okung and right tackle Breno Giacomini. Not only have their backups struggled, but the rest of the offensive line is not playing as well as they can. I can see them hitting their stride at the end of the season as there is just enough time to build up some chemistry both on the offensive line and between Wilson and Harvin. There should also be enough time to ease Harvin back into shape and feeling comfortable in the playoffs letting him bolster a kick return unit that ranks 26th in the NFL.
Mario Manningham is expected to return in week ten, and Michael Crabtree maybe in around week twelve. What kind of fantasy value is there in the 49ers crew for the rest of this season?
Dave Larkin: The restoration of Manningham and Crabtree to the 49ers' receiving corps will instantly give a boost to Colin Kaepernick, first and foremost, who will have more trustworthy options in what has been a rather conservative passing offense thus far this season. The likelihood of Anquan Boldin moving to the slot — a position he thrives in — upon the return of the aforementioned pair will help the offense keep drives alive and be more consistent. It will be fascinating to see if Harbaugh, a traditionally run-first coach, will cede more control of the offense to his young quarterback.
The deep threat of Manningham and the solid hands and smooth route-running of Crabtree will give this Niners offense a timely boost, which should have a positive trickle-down effect on Frank Gore.
Jason Wood: Assuming they both make it back 100% according to the schedule, it raises the floor for Kaepernick. I don't see either WR being compelling options on their own, but the combination of them added to the 49ers mix will let the team genuinely spread the field over the final month.
Matt Waldman: Manningham will be a boom-or-bust wildcard. I don't trust Kaepernick as a vertical passer and that's were Manningham thrives the most. I'd take a flier on the former Giant, but only as an end of the bench lottery ticket. I don't believe in Crabtree returning to a level of health where he'll provide anything more than 3-4 receptions per game as a short-yardage option.
Heath Cummings: I'm not excited about either one of these guys in 2013. By the time they get reacclimated you're likely in the playoffs and it's doubtful you're going to have a place for either of them in your lineup. Crabtree may be a flex play at best for the last few weeks of the season but I wouldn't even roster Manningham.
Greg Russell: I think Crabtree should definitely end up in the flex range down the final stretch, but agree there will be too many mouths to feed, too much competition with Boldin and Vernon Davis on the field for either returning receiver to be a major fantasy impact. Colin Kaepernick should be the big fantasy winner from their return, with Frank Gore perhaps seeing more goal line opportunities as the 49ers move the ball more consistently.
Andre Brown could return as soon as week ten as well. What are the odds that he'll take over as the featured runner for the Giants for the second half of the season?
Dave Larkin: The odds are very high, purely because Tom Coughlin trusts Brown to hold on to the ball and be a solid, three-down back. However, looking back at Brown's totals from last season, he only carried the ball more than 15 times in a game once, and the Giants offensive line is not one of the better run blocking units in the league. As such, we should limit our expectations. Brown still has a 50-50 shot at a touchdown in any given week, but with how poor the Giants are (even after two wins), it is hard to envision them getting into the kind of game situations that would see Brown toting the rock 20+ times.
Jason Wood: Assuming he's back and cleared, I would say there is a 90%+ chance he becomes the starter.
Matt Waldman: Excellent odds. Peyton Hillis is serviceable but Brown knows the offense, has more explosiveness to his game, and the Giants trust him the most of any runner.
Heath Cummings: "Featured runner" and "Giants" just doesn't seem to go together in 2013. Assuming he gets back before Davis Wilson I'd say there's a very good chance he gets a majority of the work in the Giants backfield but I'd be shocked if he got more than 60% of the touches.
Greg Russell: I would bank on Brown getting the job if he's able to return, though the Giants are such a mess I am hesitant about how much good that will do many fantasy teams. The Giants do get a pair of games against Washington, who has the third-worst rushing defense in the NFL, but one will come week 17 when many leagues have finished, and the rest of the team's opponents are middling to downright stingy against the run.
Roddy White has technically been playing for most of this season, but he's been a shell of his real self. If he can come back healthy after taking the last three weeks off (including the week six bye), will it help the Falcons offense get going and restore Matt Ryan and Steven Jackson to fantasy-starter status?
Jason Wood: Of course it will help the offense get going. He's an elite receiver; to think his absence doesn't matter would be absurd. Whether it restores Matt Ryan's value, I'm not so sure. The offensive line isn't getting the job done and White still won't force opposing defenses to loosen up downfield. Steven Jackson looks done. I had high hopes for him entering this season, but I have zero faith in him now until I see it on the field.
Matt Waldman: I would have said yes if the only issue was the ankle. The hamstring issues have me concerned that this will be a lost season for White. If he does come back healthy, it will go a long way towards restoring the Falcons offense. I watch Atlanta weekly for our recaps and have been doing so for the past four years. White is the straw that stirs this offensive drink because unlike Julio Jones, White is used everywhere and runs the greatest variety of routes. He and Matt Ryan have great timing on slants, play action drag routes, deep outs, deep comebacks, and a variety of play-action, quick-drop, timing plays in tight coverage that we have not seen at all this season.
If you have a chance to watch any Falcons game from 2012, you'll see what I mean about using White as the single receiver opposite a twins or trips alignment and Ryan using play fakes or quick drops to hit White one-on-one on these timing routes — often in tight coverage. Without White they could make these plays and it meant the field got compressed for Tony Gonzalez — even when Julio Jones was still healthy. It was no longer a pick-your-poison proposition for the defense to leave someone open one-on-one who could kill them at will. More effective single coverage for a defense means more opportunities to pressure the quarterback already behind a vulnerable line.
Ryan and White have the best timing in the league among any quarterback-receiver tandem on timing routes requiring pinpoint precision. I'm not talking about fade routes or vertical routes, but hard-cutting precise-step routes within 10-25 yards in length. Without those, the Falcons passing offense has been operating at 30 percent capacity.
Heath Cummings: It could absolutely restore Ryan to low-end QB1 territory, if he comes back healthy and stays healthy. That seems like a really big if to me. As for Jackson, he doesn't look like the same back at all and I'm not sure there's anything that could restore him to every week fantasy starter.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.