Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season -- and into the offseason.
Back to the Hunt for Value
Now that the NFL Draft is over and the bulk of this year's free agents have landing spots, it's time to get serious about sorting out anticipated roles, outcomes, and prices.
The goal is to identify fantasy value.
Landing players positioned to outperform the draft capital used to acquire them is critical.
It's also a key tenet of Value-Based Drafting, the strategy Footballguys founder Joe Bryant built this site on. In VBD, we determine a player's worth by how much they outscore their peers at their specific position, rather than their total expected fantasy points.
Finding those players at a discount is a path to championships.
I'm not afraid to aggressively pursue upside. But the preference is landing players I don't have to chase too hard or pay too much for.
One area worth exploring on this search?
The Sophomore Class
In last week's Fantasy Notebook, the focus was on digging into the landing spots and fantasy outcomes for this year's incoming rookie class. It's a tricky proposition. We know enough of the story to make educated guesses on the outcomes for first-year players.
But we have more information for players heading into Year 2.
There were some true rookie breakouts last season. The Raiders' Ashton Jeanty finished as RB15, and Carolina wideout Tetairoa McMillan earned Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. But there were plenty of others who fell short.
Even then, many flashed enough as rookies to climb higher on the radar this year. This week, we're going to hone in on Year 2 players where price hasn't caught up to role and flashes.
Your list may vary, and you'll also find more options in the This and That section below. I'll have shares of all the players discussed, but these four will be high-priority targets . . .
The Sweet Spot: Opportunity + Demonstrated Upside
The focus here isn't on offseason winners and losers, but it's safe to say there haven't been many bigger winners than Giants running back Cam Skattebo.
There's been a clear push under new coach John Harbaugh to build a more physically dominant football team, especially on the ground. So much so that, despite already having a young duo in Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy Jr., ESPN's Jordan Raanan reported earlier in the offseason that the G-Men were going to swing big at the position in free agency.
After the team came up short on high-profile targets Travis Etienne Jr. and Ken Walker III, reports suggested the Giants would be interested in drafting Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love with the fifth pick overall in last month's NFL Draft.
Not only did they fall short on landing Love, who was selected third overall by the Cardinals, but the Giants also didn't invest any draft capital at all in the position.
Instead, they used their second pick in the first round, the 10th overall, on Francis Mauigoa, a mauling run blocker who will start his NFL career at guard.
The Giants' run blocking made progress last season, improving from 23rd to 20th in Pro Football Focus rankings.
But with a new emphasis on building a more physical, run-heavy offense, key additions like Mauigoa and former Ravens fullback Patrick Ricard, with Andrew Thomas anchoring the unit, we should expect even more improvement.
The Concern
Skattebo's rookie season ended with a dislocated ankle in Week 8 -- just as the powerhouse running back was hitting stride. He underwent successful surgery the night of his injury and was cleared for voluntary workouts in April.
Skattebo confirmed during a March appearance on the "Rich Eisen Show" that he had resumed running, although he still had a way to go before being considered full speed.
He is, however, expected to be fully cleared for training camp.
The Recipe for Success
So, we have Harbaugh's desire to establish the run, efforts to improve the team's run blocking, and a healthy Skattebo.
We've had a taste of what that last point means.
Even though he only appeared in eight games last season, Skattebo was fantasy gold before he went down.
The fourth-round pick first played a significant offensive role in Week 2 and went on to average 16.0 carries, 4.7 targets, and 96.3 yards while scoring six TDs during his six full games.
Skattebo had five-straight games with 90-plus all-purpose yards.
He was RB10 when he went down in Week 8, despite not being a starter until Week 4.
From Weeks 4-7, even with Tracy and Devin Singletary in the mix, Skattebo handled 60 percent of the carries and 69 percent of the overall snaps.
As ESPN's Mike Clay pointed out, Skattebo's 19.2 fantasy points per game during the span would've ranked sixth over the full season.
In those three fully healthy games as the starter, Skattebo was RB8.
Expectations Exceed Pricing
Skattebo's current Footballguys projection, RB20, matches his RB20 Average Draft Position (ADP) -- going with the 47th pick overall.
Beyond last year's numbers, there's reason to expect more this season.
Our projection team expects 225 carries (for 968 yards with seven touchdowns) and 45 catches (for another 333 yards with three more scores) this season.
That volume is important.
In addition, as Fantasy Life's Adam Pfeifer pointed out, Skattebo has two key traits that unlock massive fantasy upside: He's a plus receiver and he dominates goal-line touches.
Last year, he earned a 15 percent target share and handled 80 percent of the attempts inside the five-yard line.
With Matt Nagy coming over from Kansas City to call plays, Pfeifer expects plenty of designed screens to the running back. The Chiefs dialed up the sixth-most running back screens in 2025.
All this is the recipe for success. Skattebo being undervalued adds to that . . .
Building on a September to Remember
It was a fantastic start. Emeka Egbuka became an integral component of the Buccaneers' offense early in 2025.
He finished the month of September with 18 receptions for 282 yards (15.7 average) and four touchdowns.
In Weeks 1 through 4, Egbuka was one of four NFC wide receivers (and only rookie) with 75-plus yards from scrimmage in three or more games, along with Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Per NextGen Stats, Egbuka led all rookies during that span -- and ranked second behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown -- in passer rating when targeted (128.0) among players with 25 or more targets.
From Weeks 1 through 5, Egbuka was the WR4 overall.
His 20.1 points per game were tied for third with Smith-Njigba. He averaged 89 yards per game and had scored five touchdowns, trailing only St. Brown in touchdowns at the position.
The Descent
But things went south for Egbuka after that, and the falloff was dramatic.
The first-round draft pick went from being a top-5 fantasy producer to WR43 from Week 6 through the end of the season.
That meant a drop from 20 fantasy points per game to an average of 7.8 points per game. In fact, Egbuka only scored double-digit fantasy points twice the rest of the year -- a 23.5-point outing in Week 10 and a 10.4-point finish in Week 16.
Aside from his WR2 finish in that impressive Week 10 outing, Egbuka had just one fantasy-relevant game -- he was WR32 in Week 7 -- the rest of the year.
He finished outside the WR3 territory 10 times. He was WR50 or worse six times, including a miserable WR91 finish to close out the season in Week 18.
All this despite earning a 22 percent target share over that 12-game span.
What Happened?
There are a number of reasons for the slide.
Egbuka sat in the top 10 in targets and air yards, but he posted a horrible 49 percent catch rate.
It wasn't all Baker Mayfield's fault, but a fair amount of the volume Egbuka received wasn't up to par. His 63.8 percent catchable target rate ranked 72nd -- the third-lowest among the 74 wideouts with 50-plus targets.
Reception Perception's Matt Harmon suggested at the time that injuries to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr., and Jalen McMillan forced Egbuka to play more X-receiver than expected. That led to some of the volatility in his production and the low target quality.
Reasons for Optimism in 2026?
Did I mention that fantastic start? As much as he slowed down, those first five weeks were remarkable.
They're why he managed to finish the year as WR24 despite going into a tailspin the rest of the year.
Egbuka finished second among rookies with 938 receiving yards and yards after the catch (335). His six touchdowns were also tied for second most, and he tied for fourth in receptions (63). Egbuka also tied for fifth in yards from scrimmage (947).
He showcased impressive ball-tracking skills, feel at the catch point, and the ability to exploit coverage voids. He generated separation with route subtleties -- timing, footwork -- at the stem to spur the offense.
Footballguy Jeff Haseley believes that Egbuka's decline in the second half of the season was related more to a lingering hamstring injury -- he was on the injury report in Weeks 6 and 7 due to the issue -- and Evans' return to the lineup in Week 14.
Our colleague, Matt Waldman, also believes Mayfield was injured and far less accurate than he was at the start of the year.
The Better Part
With Evans, who signed with the 49ers, out of the picture and Godwin now 30 years old, Egbuka has an opportunity to emerge as Mayfield's clear-cut No. 1 target.
As Clay wrote: "The 2025 first-round pick is a strong bet for a leap forward and should be viewed as a WR3 with the potential for a full-on breakout."
Egbuka's Footballguys projection offers a slightly more optimistic baseline: A WR24 finish (matching last year) with 76 catches, 1,049 yards, and seven touchdowns.
His current WR20 ADP and fourth-round price tag reflect optimism, without charging us for the potential upside.
And what is that upside?
Well, we saw it last September when Egbuka delivered WR1 production. He might not hit that ceiling again, but we know it exists.
Buying Low on the Bayou
As outlined in a previous Notebook, I was already enthusiastic about Saints quarterback Tyler Shough heading into this season.
Nothing that happened during last month's NFL Draft changed that.
In fact, the draft added to it.
Head coach Kellen Moore announced earlier this year that the Saints were locking Shough in as their 2026 starter, and that they were "excited to have a full offseason to build."
Based on what we saw last month, they're making Shough the cornerstone of that build.
It Makes Sense
Shough went 5-4 down the stretch after taking over for Spencer Rattler in November. He completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 2,384 yards, threw 10 touchdowns, ran for three more, and posted back-to-back 300-yard games to close the season.
From Weeks 15 through 17 -- championship week for most fantasy investors -- he was QB8, averaging 19 points per game. Week 17, he went 22-of-27 for more than 300 yards and two scores against Tennessee.
As a result, he was QB9 in what was championship week for most fantasy investors.
That's league-winning production from a quarterback who went undrafted in summer leagues.
Adding to the positive buzz, Shough did it without a ton of help.
About Last Year's Cast
Alvin Kamara struggled early in the season with a lingering ankle injury, then missed the stretch run altogether after spraining an MCL in Week 12. Rashid Shaheed was shipped off to the Seattle Seahawks at the 2025 trade deadline.
That left Shough with Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, a brief stint with Taysom Hill, and an assortment of lower-level players.
Shough still averaged 17.3 fantasy points across his nine starts.
Moore Matters
Having a sharp offensive mind calling the plays can't be overlooked as a positive here.
Moore knows what to do with talent.
His Cowboys offenses ranked No. 2 in the NFL in both total yards (391.0 per game) and scoring (27.7 per game) across four seasons as coordinator. He then coordinated the 2024 Eagles to the second-ranked rushing offense, an NFC East title, and a Super Bowl win over Kansas City.
One thing stands out over his time as an offensive coordinator: Moore has been at his best with difference-makers in key spots.
The Saints Have One of Those
Olave finally looked like the player we hoped he'd be. After a series of concussions ended his 2024 campaign early, Olave answered with a career-high 887 snaps and a target share that ranked sixth in the NFL -- 156 looks, often coming wide open thanks to crisp route running and speed.
He closed the year with three straight 20-point fantasy games, including a 36.8 burst against the Jets in Week 16.
They Might Have Two
The Saints used the No. 8 pick on Arizona State's Jordyn Tyson.
Per Profootballtalk.com's Michael David Smith, Shough had told reporters before the draft he'd love to see the Saints take a wideout.
They listened.
NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah called Tyson explosive -- a fluid mover with creative releases, suddenness off the line, wiggle after the catch, and the speed to pull away. The tape is full of "wow" plays.
Tyson's obvious upside doesn't come without risk.
His medical history isn't great, but Tyson told ESPN's Katherine Terrell he's hired a team specifically to help him stay on the field. If he stays healthy and emerges as a complementary threat opposite Olave, that's a rising tide that lifts every ship in this offense.
The Math
Olave, currently being drafted as WR12 early in Round 3, is priced at full freight. Tyson is intriguing but unproven and risky. His Footballguys projection, WR42, reflects that.
Shough, meanwhile, is being drafted as QB20 in Round 10.
The market is sleeping on a second-year quarterback who finished the year as a fantasy QB1 and now has more help than he had a year ago.
I expect Shough to make weekly decisions with the presumptive starting QBs drafted ahead of him very difficult.
A New Scheme Opens the Door to New Opportunities
All the pieces are in place. The physical attributes and athleticism are there, too.
And, as Fansided's Lior Lampert noted, we saw Los Angeles Chargers tight end Oronde Gadsden II torch opposing defenses almost immediately upon entering the NFL.
Gadsden wasn't active for the Chargers' first two contests last season, though he wasted no time asserting himself when given the chance.
The High End
There was a one-month period from Weeks 6 through 9 where the former Syracuse standout showcased his prolific pass-catching prowess, as the numbers bear out.
During that stretch, Gadsden ranked fourth in the entire league in receiving yards (377) and tied for the third-most receptions.
He also delivered a massive 29.4 fantasy points in Week 7 and 18.7 points in Week 8.
He was TE1 over that span.
The Fall
But he went on to score one touchdown and average 6.2 fantasy points per game the rest of the season, never clearing 12.2 points in a single outing.
Nonetheless, Gadsden finished the season eighth or better at the position in end-zone targets, average depth of target, yards per reception, yards per target, and yards per route run.
But it was his contributions -- or lack thereof -- to the club's ground game that prevented him from being a consistent threat as a rookie.
The Change That Matters
Being able to make plays with the ball got Gadsden on the field, but his inability to do the little things at a high level cost him playing time. The Chargers delegated traditional inline blocking responsibilities to veteran Will Dissly, an unrestricted free agent who was allowed to move on. To replace him, Los Angeles brought in former Ravens tight end Charlie Kolar.
According to the Athletic's Daniel Popper, "Kolar is an elite run blocker who is an ideal fit in McDaniel's movement offense . . . He will allow Gadsden to play in a role that maximizes the 2025 fifth-round pick's receiving skill set."
And We've Seen What That Role Can Do
While the 23-year-old's second-half decline was concerning, Gadsden enters Year 2 as a potential featured target in new playcaller Mike McDaniel's offense.
Kolar's presence will free up Gadsden to operate in the "Jonnu Smith role" -- a dedicated pass-catcher who can exploit mismatches in space.
Under McDaniel's playcalling in 2024, Smith set Dolphins single-season franchise records for a tight end with 88 receptions and 884 yards, along with eight touchdowns.
I'll acknowledge that Gadsden's Footballguys projection, TE21, shouldn't be dismissed. But his TE10 ADP better reflects my expectation -- even if it doesn't fully account for the upside.
That said, if you feel like you're taking a chance drafting Gadsden in Round 9, it's easy to mitigate.
There are a number of steady producers -- including Travis Kelce, Jake Ferguson, Dallas Goedert, Juwan Johnson, Mark Andrews, and Hunter Henry -- who will be available later as potential starters if Gadsden falls short.
One note here: The Chargers will visit with free-agent tight end David Njoku this week. We'd have to reassess this situation if the former Browns standout lands in Los Angeles.
