New or limited profile running backs litter the DFS landscape for Week 5. Who stands out as target or avoid DFS plays?
PHIL ALEXANDER
- Wayne Gallman - We probably just saw his best game all season. He's in play on full-PPR sites, possibly even for cash games, but don't expect another ceiling game vs. Minnesota.
- Ronald Jones - He was only on the field for 49% of Tampa Bay's snaps in last week's fluky 20-touch performance and isn't involved as a pass-catcher. Hard pass.
- Miles Sanders-Jordan Howard - Howard is priced up too far on DraftKings where he offers little upside as a receiver. But both Eagles backs are worth light tournament exposure due to the implied game script against the Jets.
- Buying Melvin Gordon in his first game back? - I'm not planning on it. It would be a little surprising if Gordon was re-installed as a bell-cow his first game back and this profiles as a game the Chargers could disappoint in.
- Frank Gore - It's hard to dislike Gore at this point. But even on his best day, he doesn't have the upside to win you a GPP anymore.
JUSTIN BONNEMA
- Wayne Gallman – avoid. As Phil mentioned, we probably saw his ceiling last week and it’s tough to trust even the best running backs against the Vikings.
- Ronald Jones – target. Strictly for GPPs, Jones looks so much better than Barber and it’s only a matter of time before he earns a 65/35 role at worst. You’ll want to play him before his salary jumps. Tough to do against a great Saints’ run defense, but the Buccaneers are finally clicking.
- Miles Sanders-Jordan Howard – avoid. Up until last week, this had been a three-way backfield all season. Sanders hasn’t done enough to earn a bigger role and Howard is touchdown dependent. Maybe that works against the Jets this week, so some GPP exposure is in order.
- Buying Melvin Gordon in his first game back? – negative. I still think this will be the Austin Ekeler show until further notice. It would be malpractice to reduce his snaps with how well he has been playing.
- Frank Gore – avoid. The Bills offense just got worse and they’re on the road against a solid Titans’ defense this week.
BJ VANDERWOUDE
The top play here is Jordan Howard, as he has the benefit of playing on the best offense and has carved out a definitive role. While Miles Sanders has not shown the patience as a runner to overtake Howard, I think writing him off completely is also a mistake. He’s been given double-digit carries in every game this season while also seeing 10 targets. Sanders is going to break out at some point soon, and he’s one injury away from being in one of the best positions a running back could be in. With this in mind, I will have some exposure to Sanders as well as Howard.
I want nothing to do with Frank Gore, as I have serious doubts with respect to Buffalo moving the ball. I also do not trust Melvin Gordon. Austin Ekeler has been too good, so I’d rather take a wait and see approach.
JAMES BRIMACOMBE
Ronald Jones against the tough New Orleans defense looks like a big avoid. Jones has struggled to start his career and the Saints are coming off a game where they bottled up Ezekiel Elliott makes me want to avoid Jones in this spot.
JASON WOOD
- Wayne Gallman
- Ronald Jones
- Miles Sanders-Jordan Howard
- Buying Melvin Gordon in his first game back?
- Frank Gore
I wouldn't touch Gallman after his two-touchdown performance last week. Recency bias will assure he's over-owned, and he's up against an excellent Vikings defense desperate to re-assert themselves after a forgettable September.
I could see having some Melvin Gordon exposure in tournaments; the biggest question of the week is how the Chargers plan to balance Gordon and Austin Ekeler's touches.
DAN HINDERY
The two cheap running backs who stand out the most are on opposite sides of the same matchup. David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs are both priced too low. Montgomery has taken on a workhorse role in the Bears backfield. With Chicago favored and facing a solid but unspectacular Raiders run defense (that will be without Vontaze Burfict), Montgomery could be primed for the first real breakout performance of his NFL career. The matchup is less attractive for Jacobs but he is simply priced too low ($4,500 on DraftKings) given his role and talent level. Aside from a blowout loss to the Chiefs, Jacobs has put up at least 99 yards every game so far. He was targeted twice in each of the last two games and should continue to see his usage in the passing game increase as the season goes on. He looked great in his limited chances as a receiver in Week 4.
JUSTIN HOWE
- Wayne Gallman - A definite fade. Last week’s usefulness was volume-driven and depended on short touchdown opportunities. As Phil said, we just saw his absolute ceiling.
- Ronald Jones - Fade. It’s not enough for Jones to win the carry battle over Peyton Barber. He needs high-leverage opportunity, as well, if he’s going to play DFS hero. Bruce Arians doesn’t give many big-volume games to his runners, nor does he feature them near the goal line. Jones’ ceiling is, to me, pretty apparent.
- Miles Sanders-Jordan Howard - Howard’s salary has shot up, which makes sense given the matchup and Vegas suggestions here. Still, if I’m looking to take down a tournament, it’s hard to pay up for a guy without at least the upside for 6-8 receptions. That kind of outlook is generally matchup- and script-proof.
- Buying Melvin Gordon in his first game back? - Not really, because I’m not sure he’s the best running back on the roster. He could be an exposure pivot, but he’s pricey for that.
- Frank Gore - Like Howard, Gore’s ultimate DFS ceiling is stuck squarely in the middle.
