DFS Roundtable: Strong Favorite Running Backs

Near or surpassing touchdown favorites in Week 3, include the following running back situations. Which are targets or avoid DFS plays?

• Packers at home against Denver, Aaron Jones splash performer in Week 2, top-15 level running back salary on many sites
• Eagles shifting to Miles Sanders as solid touchdown favorites at home against Detroit, but Sanders yet to do much through two games
• Vikings hearty favorites over Oakland, at home, Dalvin Cook zooming up to top-5 running back salaries after two impressive games
• Patriots huge favorites at home against the Jets, are they back to committee approach at running back? Can Sony Michel be trusted?
• Cowboys more than two-touchdown favorites against DFS target Miami defense. Is Ezekiel Elliott the chalk play of the week despite high salary? Any risk of Tony Pollard seeing enough second half time to siphon Elliott's value?

PHIL ALEXANDER

• I'm cautiously optimistic Aaron Jones can keep it going. The Broncos have to be deflated after last week's walk-off loss to Chicago and could show up flat as eight-point underdogs in Green Bay. It's the right game script for Jones, who piled up 27 touches after the Packers got out to a three-touchdown lead over the Vikings last week. But a strong chance exists Jones' usage remains game-flow dependent. Jamaal Williams still played on 47% of the team's offensive snaps against Minnesota and will be a thorn in Jones' side if Green Bay doesn't run away with this one.
• The Eagles haven't exactly shifted to Miles Sanders, who is still playing less than 50% of the team's snaps. As much as the fantasy community wishes it weren't the case, Sanders is mired in a three-way committee and doesn't have much of a ceiling.
• A healthy Dalvin Cook has been fun to watch and play in DFS. Keep rolling out high exposure until he's priced next to Ezekiel Elliott.
• No New England running back can ever truly be trusted. But the same Patriots defense that has yet to allow a touchdown this season will be facing off against Luke Falk in Foxboro. Michel should be in line for 20+ carries for the second-straight game and his touchdown expectation is as high as any running back's on the slate.
• I wouldn't want to be caught without Elliott in cash this week. 20 carries, 100 yards, and one touchdown are close to a median projection against this Dolphins team.

DAN HINDERY

I absolutely love Aaron Jones this week. He had 23 carries and 6 targets in last week’s win over Minnesota and we are starting to see him potentially emerge as a true workhorse runner for the Packers. The Broncos have a strong pass rush but are a little bit undersized up front. Given Denver’s low-powered offense, it makes sense for teams to pound away on the ground against them. That formula worked for both Oakland and Chicago and should be even more effective away from Mile High.

Dalvin Cook is going to be a top play every week going forward. He is one of the few backs we can safely project for 20 carries and at least a few targets every game. However, I think the matchup is just average so I’ll probably be pretty close to the field on him this week. Oakland has been stout against the run but poor against the pass. They don’t have much of a pass rush and the secondary isn’t very good either, so this could be a game where Minnesota calls plays a bit more aggressively. 

Ezekiel Elliott is going to be extremely chalky but for good reason. Miami is a mess and Elliott should have a huge game. I’m not overly concerned with blowout risk. If Dallas is able to dominate so much that Elliott gets pulled, he will have probably had a big hand in putting all those points on the board. The idea of playing both Elliott and Pollard in the same lineup is intriguing if you think Dallas completely smashes Miami. Baltimore’s backs combined for 38 carries for 190 yards in Week 1 and Dallas could use a similar formula.

I’m out on both Miles Sanders and Sony Michel for now. Sanders is off to a slow start and hasn’t been able to lock down a real lead role. Michel will probably be popular given how big the spread is and his number of carries last week. However, I don’t like rostering running backs who aren’t involved as pass catchers unless it’s a contrarian play on a low-owned guy.

JUSTIN BONNEMA

Elliott and Cook are shaping up to mega-chalk this week and for good reason. Both are in great spots and have little chance of losing touches. They are worth their salaries and qualify as “sharp chalk.”

JASON WOOD

• Packers at home against Denver, Aaron Jones splash perfomer in Week 2, top-15 level running back salary on many sites

• Eagles shifting to Miles Sanders as solid touchdown favorites at home against Detroit, but Sanders yet to do much through two games

• Vikings hearty favorites over Oakland, at home, Dalvin Cook zooming up to top-5 running back salaries after two impressive games

• Patriots huge favorites at home against the Jets, are they back to committee approach at running back? Can Sony Michel be trusted?

• Cowboys more than two-touchdown favorites against DFS target Miami defense. Is Ezekiel Elliott the chalk play of the week despite high salary? Any risk of Tony Pollard seeing enough second half time to siphon Elliott's value?

JAMES BRIMACOMBE

Aaron Jones – I like Jones a lot of GPP’s this week as he looks to be in line for a bigger volume share moving forward. This week Denver could be a tough matchup for the passing game so Jones might have extra touches coming his way.