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Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
You are very welcome to the 15th edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
Playoff intensity is in the air. There is nothing quite like earning the bragging rights by beating a friend or colleague in the fantasy playoffs, seeing the fruits of your season-long labors as you lift the trophy. That comes in time; for now, the focus must remain on the week ahead. The decisions you make over the next week or two will define your season. Let’s use the match-ups to their fullest to make it a memorable finish.
Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s match-ups.
Team Defense | Team Offense | |||||||||
LEAGUE AVG | Pressure Applied | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure Allowed | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | ||
AVERAGE | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | ||||
2016 NFL Average | 14.2% | 2.18 | 5.37 | 37.8 | 14.2% | 2.18 | 5.37 | 37.8 | ||
2017 NFL Average | 15.1% | 2.33 | 5.49 | 36.5 | 15.0% | 2.33 | 5.49 | 36.5 | ||
2018 NFL Average | 15.0% | 2.50 | 5.56 | 37.0 | 15.0% | 2.50 | 5.56 | 37.0 | ||
2019 NFL Average | 15.2% | 2.58 | 5.68 | 37.4 | 15.2% | 2.58 | 5.68 | 37.4 | ||
Team Defense | Team Offense | |||||||||
Pressure Applied | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure Allowed | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | |||
Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | |||||
ARIZONA Cardinals | 14.4% | 2.5 | 5.7 | 39.6 | 11.5% | 3.6 | 4.5 | 38.9 | ||
ATLANTA Falcons | 12.2% | 1.8 | 4.4 | 36.1 | 18.0% | 3.2 | 8.2 | 45.4 | ||
BALTIMORE Ravens | 19.3% | 2.5 | 7.2 | 37.5 | 12.6% | 1.9 | 3.8 | 29.9 | ||
BUFFALO Bills | 16.1% | 2.9 | 6.0 | 37.2 | 16.7% | 2.6 | 5.8 | 35.1 | ||
CAROLINA Panthers | 17.0% | 3.6 | 6.6 | 38.9 | 15.4% | 3.8 | 6.5 | 42.0 | ||
CHICAGO Bears | 13.8% | 2.3 | 5.5 | 39.5 | 13.0% | 2.7 | 4.9 | 37.8 | ||
CINCINNATI Bengals | 13.8% | 1.6 | 4.4 | 31.7 | 13.6% | 3.3 | 5.7 | 41.8 | ||
CLEVELAND Browns | 15.7% | 2.8 | 5.6 | 35.8 | 12.2% | 2.5 | 4.4 | 36.1 | ||
DALLAS Cowboys | 16.2% | 2.3 | 5.8 | 36.2 | 14.1% | 1.7 | 5.6 | 39.9 | ||
DENVER Broncos | 12.7% | 2.4 | 4.5 | 35.7 | 14.8% | 2.8 | 5.0 | 33.8 | ||
DETROIT Lions | 10.9% | 1.9 | 4.2 | 38.8 | 14.7% | 2.8 | 5.8 | 39.2 | ||
GREEN BAY Packers | 17.3% | 2.5 | 6.2 | 35.6 | 15.3% | 2.5 | 5.6 | 36.7 | ||
HOUSTON Texans | 15.0% | 2.1 | 5.8 | 39.0 | 16.1% | 3.0 | 5.9 | 36.8 | ||
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 14.6% | 2.5 | 5.4 | 37.0 | 17.5% | 1.9 | 6.1 | 34.8 | ||
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 17.8% | 3.0 | 6.2 | 34.6 | 13.0% | 2.6 | 5.2 | 40.2 | ||
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 14.2% | 2.8 | 5.5 | 38.4 | 12.5% | 1.6 | 4.8 | 38.8 | ||
LOS ANGELES Chargers | 13.6% | 2.1 | 4.3 | 31.6 | 15.6% | 2.1 | 6.0 | 38.5 | ||
LOS ANGELES Rams | 15.4% | 3.3 | 6.1 | 39.4 | 12.6% | 1.5 | 4.9 | 39.1 | ||
MIAMI Dolphins | 11.8% | 1.3 | 4.1 | 34.5 | 22.7% | 3.9 | 9.2 | 40.7 | ||
MINNESOTA Vikings | 16.1% | 2.9 | 6.5 | 40.2 | 13.4% | 1.8 | 4.2 | 31.6 | ||
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 18.1% | 3.2 | 6.6 | 36.6 | 13.7% | 1.9 | 5.8 | 42.6 | ||
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 16.3% | 3.6 | 6.8 | 41.5 | 10.1% | 1.3 | 3.8 | 38.2 | ||
NEW YORK Giants | 15.2% | 2.2 | 5.5 | 35.8 | 18.8% | 2.8 | 7.6 | 40.5 | ||
NEW YORK Jets | 16.6% | 2.2 | 6.5 | 39.5 | 19.6% | 3.6 | 7.2 | 36.5 | ||
OAKLAND Raiders | 11.2% | 2.1 | 3.9 | 35.2 | 8.6% | 1.5 | 2.8 | 33.2 | ||
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 18.4% | 2.8 | 6.9 | 37.5 | 16.1% | 2.5 | 6.5 | 40.2 | ||
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 19.4% | 3.7 | 7.3 | 37.7 | 13.0% | 1.7 | 4.3 | 33.2 | ||
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 16.4% | 3.5 | 5.5 | 33.8 | 15.6% | 2.1 | 5.1 | 32.5 | ||
SEATTLE Seahawks | 11.1% | 1.8 | 4.5 | 40.8 | 19.2% | 3.1 | 6.8 | 35.3 | ||
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 15.6% | 2.6 | 6.8 | 44.0 | 16.5% | 3.2 | 7.1 | 42.8 | ||
TENNESSEE Titans | 14.0% | 2.7 | 5.7 | 40.8 | 20.1% | 3.8 | 6.4 | 31.7 | ||
WASHINGTON Redskins | 16.2% | 3.1 | 5.8 | 35.5 | 19.5% | 3.4 | 6.3 | 32.3 | ||
Strong Matchup | ||||||||||
Neutral | ||||||||||
Weak Matchup |
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit
Baltimore pass rushers vs. New York Jets
With Vegas tabbing them as a 14.5-point favorite, the Ravens should have their way with the Jets in a Thursday night showcase. The quadriceps injury to Lamar Jackson may, in a funny way, be a boon for the defense. If Jackson can’t make magic like he normally does, it will be on the shoulders of the defensive giants on this roster to make the plays to win the game. The Ravens average a staggering 7.2 quarterback hits per game and apply pressure on 19.3% of dropbacks, figures that will strike fear in the heart of second-year Jets quarterback Sam Darnold.
Adam Gase’s team has little reason to be confident in an offensive line that has allowed pressure 19.6% of dropbacks, with 3.6 sacks and 7.2 hits per game. Granted some of these numbers were accumulated while the Jets were forced into starting Luke Falk, but this offense struggles mightily on the road. The discrepancy between sacks taken at home versus on the road is stark: a 15 to 32 split. Only a few bounces of the ball to keep this game close on the scoreline will allow the Jets to run their offense in a balanced fashion. Unfortunately for Darnold, that script isn’t likely to play out. Plug in your Ravens in a clash that should include ample pass-rushing opportunities.
Key stat: At home, the Ravens have applied pressure on 17.0% of dropbacks.
Seattle pass rushers at Carolina
In case you haven’t been watching the Panthers recently, the issue of pressure has been a near-constant thorn in their side. Inexperienced quarterback Kyle Allen has a few starts under his belt, but he has a habit of retreating from pressure, ironically inviting more of it in the process, and taking more unnecessary hits. The numbers don’t support a strong Seahawks performance; after all, they have averaged pressure on just 11.1% of dropbacks with 1.8 sacks per game. That could change against Carolina.
The Panthers line features a rookie left tackle and this has been a contributory factor to surrendering 3.8 sacks per game and 6.5 hits. It hasn’t helped that the offense has been in comeback mode for large swathes of games in recent weeks, with an average of 42 dropbacks per game for Allen, who is not equipped to deal with that kind of workload. The Seahawks are short favorites on the road, so the game script is a positive one for them to build a lead and steadily ramp up the pressure on Allen. Until the Panthers quarterback shows he can punish the Seahawks for blitzing, expect a barrage headed his way – and plenty of opportunities for fantasy points for your Seattle players.
Key stat: Carolina has the sixth-highest sack allowed percentage in the league with a mark of 9.0%.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Avoid
Jacksonville pass rushers at Oakland
You can look, but you cannot touch. That has been the rule for the Raiders this season in protecting Derek Carr, who has benefited hugely from a cohesive offensive line. The Raiders are hosting their final home game in Oakland this week, with a special atmosphere expected. The health of Josh Jacobs is something to watch here; a strong rushing performance would put the Jaguars behind the 8-ball, forcing more pass attempts and hence more pass-rushing opportunities for Oakland.
The Raiders may not possess the most talented group up front, but with how poorly Jacksonville has been protecting the passer, they may not need much. The Jaguars have given up 10 sacks over the past three games in pass-happy game scripts. This is not a must-play situation for Oakland’s defensive assets, but the trend suggests the home team will finish with a flourish to give the Black Hole and the Coliseum a proper send-off.
Key stat: The Raiders offensive line has allowed pressure on a league-low 8.6% of Derek Carr’s dropbacks.
TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | |||||||||||
Tackle Opportunity | Rush Attempts faced | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush Percentage | |||
AVERAGE | Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | |||||
2016 NFL Average | 50.0 | 25.3 | 37.8 | 63.1 | 40.1% | 50.0 | 25.3 | 37.8 | 63.1 | 40.1% | ||
2017 NFL Average | 49.6 | 26.1 | 36.5 | 62.6 | 41.9% | 49.7 | 26.1 | 36.5 | 62.6 | 41.7% | ||
2018 NFL Average | 50.0 | 25.1 | 37.0 | 62.2 | 40.5% | 50.1 | 25.1 | 37.0 | 62.2 | 40.5% | ||
2019 NFL Average | 50.0 | 25.3 | 37.4 | 62.8 | 40.3% | 50.4 | 25.3 | 37.4 | 62.6 | 40.3% | ||
TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | |||||||||||
Tackle Opportunity | Rush Attempts faced | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush Percentage | |||
Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | ||||||
ARIZONA Cardinals | 56.4 | 27.2 | 39.6 | 66.8 | 40.7% | 49.0 | 22.8 | 38.9 | 61.7 | 36.9% | ||
ATLANTA Falcons | 50.8 | 25.8 | 36.1 | 62.8 | 41.7% | 53.2 | 21.4 | 45.4 | 66.8 | 32.0% | ||
BALTIMORE Ravens | 44.1 | 20.7 | 37.5 | 58.9 | 35.6% | 55.8 | 35.2 | 29.9 | 65.2 | 54.1% | ||
BUFFALO Bills | 46.5 | 23.3 | 37.2 | 62.0 | 38.5% | 50.5 | 28.5 | 35.1 | 63.6 | 44.9% | ||
CAROLINA Panthers | 51.7 | 25.5 | 38.9 | 64.5 | 39.6% | 51.2 | 24.1 | 42.0 | 66.1 | 36.4% | ||
CHICAGO Bears | 51.3 | 25.1 | 39.5 | 64.0 | 38.8% | 49.2 | 23.5 | 37.8 | 61.3 | 38.4% | ||
CINCINNATI Bengals | 51.5 | 30.6 | 31.7 | 62.2 | 49.1% | 47.5 | 21.9 | 41.8 | 63.8 | 34.4% | ||
CLEVELAND Browns | 48.8 | 25.8 | 35.8 | 61.7 | 41.8% | 47.3 | 25.1 | 36.1 | 61.2 | 41.0% | ||
DALLAS Cowboys | 49.8 | 25.4 | 36.2 | 60.9 | 41.3% | 52.2 | 26.5 | 39.9 | 66.4 | 39.9% | ||
DENVER Broncos | 51.1 | 27.2 | 35.7 | 61.8 | 43.2% | 47.2 | 25.1 | 33.8 | 58.8 | 42.6% | ||
DETROIT Lions | 51.9 | 26.9 | 38.8 | 66.8 | 40.9% | 51.4 | 25.9 | 39.2 | 65.2 | 39.8% | ||
GREEN BAY Packers | 49.0 | 25.9 | 35.6 | 62.9 | 42.1% | 48.1 | 23.5 | 36.7 | 60.2 | 39.1% | ||
HOUSTON Texans | 50.0 | 23.8 | 39.0 | 62.7 | 37.9% | 51.8 | 26.0 | 36.8 | 62.8 | 41.4% | ||
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 48.9 | 22.5 | 37.0 | 59.8 | 37.9% | 51.6 | 29.5 | 34.8 | 64.2 | 45.9% | ||
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 49.1 | 25.8 | 34.6 | 61.5 | 42.7% | 49.9 | 23.9 | 40.2 | 64.2 | 37.3% | ||
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 51.3 | 26.7 | 38.4 | 65.6 | 41.0% | 47.8 | 22.0 | 38.8 | 60.8 | 36.2% | ||
LOS ANGELES Chargers | 48.2 | 25.6 | 31.6 | 57.4 | 44.8% | 48.8 | 23.0 | 38.5 | 61.5 | 37.4% | ||
LOS ANGELES Rams | 52.5 | 26.8 | 39.4 | 66.5 | 40.5% | 49.7 | 24.6 | 39.1 | 63.7 | 38.6% | ||
MIAMI Dolphins | 52.2 | 29.8 | 34.5 | 64.3 | 46.4% | 46.3 | 20.2 | 40.7 | 60.9 | 33.2% | ||
MINNESOTA Vikings | 51.5 | 24.5 | 40.2 | 65.4 | 37.8% | 52.5 | 29.8 | 31.6 | 61.4 | 48.5% | ||
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 43.3 | 21.4 | 36.6 | 58.5 | 36.9% | 52.8 | 26.2 | 42.6 | 68.8 | 38.0% | ||
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 48.9 | 21.5 | 41.5 | 62.4 | 34.1% | 50.9 | 23.4 | 38.2 | 61.6 | 38.0% | ||
NEW YORK Giants | 53.2 | 28.4 | 35.8 | 64.1 | 44.2% | 47.2 | 21.3 | 40.5 | 61.8 | 34.5% | ||
NEW YORK Jets | 50.2 | 24.7 | 39.5 | 64.5 | 38.5% | 46.5 | 22.4 | 36.5 | 58.8 | 38.0% | ||
OAKLAND Raiders | 48.5 | 25.2 | 35.2 | 60.3 | 41.8% | 50.5 | 26.7 | 33.2 | 59.8 | 44.6% | ||
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 46.0 | 22.0 | 37.5 | 60.6 | 37.0% | 53.5 | 27.4 | 40.2 | 67.6 | 40.5% | ||
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 51.1 | 26.3 | 37.7 | 65.2 | 41.1% | 46.1 | 24.5 | 33.2 | 57.8 | 42.5% | ||
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 47.1 | 25.1 | 33.8 | 58.2 | 42.6% | 54.5 | 31.3 | 32.5 | 63.8 | 49.1% | ||
SEATTLE Seahawks | 49.0 | 22.2 | 40.8 | 62.3 | 35.3% | 54.2 | 29.5 | 35.3 | 64.8 | 45.6% | ||
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 49.8 | 21.5 | 44.0 | 64.1 | 32.8% | 52.6 | 25.2 | 42.8 | 68.0 | 37.0% | ||
TENNESSEE Titans | 52.0 | 24.8 | 40.8 | 64.6 | 37.9% | 48.5 | 26.0 | 31.7 | 57.7 | 45.1% | ||
WASHINGTON Redskins | 55.5 | 30.1 | 35.5 | 65.1 | 45.8% | 55.5 | 21.8 | 32.3 | 54.1 | 40.3% | ||
Strong Matchup | ||||||||||||
Neutral | ||||||||||||
Weak Matchup |
Tackle Match-ups to Exploit
New York Giants and Miami defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 2nd (1.250)
MetLife Stadium is the second friendliest venue when it comes to TVO, an excellent place to start when we look for the best tackle match-ups of the week. The Giants offense suddenly has a little bit more life to it with Eli Manning, or certainly the appearance of it. Philadelphia’s defense made it tough on him the other night, but Miami’s will not offer up much resistance. The concerning thing for the Giants is how infrequently they have run the ball, with only 21.2 attempts per game. That could change swiftly against a Dolphins defense that faces 29.8 attempts per game. Something’s gotta give.
Miami could have a field day as well, as the Giants defense averages 53.2 tackle opportunities per game and faces 28.4 rushing attempts per game. Statistics aside, the potential for a shootout is high – and that could lead to a points bonanza on the defensive side. Sometimes fantasy championships are won in the strangest places. Try to plug in as many Giants and Dolphins frontline defenders as you can in this plum spot for production.
Key stat: Miami’s defense averages 50 tackle opportunities per game on the road, a little below their season average of 52.2.
Houston and Tennessee defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 9th (1.206)
While this clash lacks the tackle production upside of the Giants/Dolphins game, it remains an excellent opportunity for tackle production. Both offenses have the potential to blow up at any time, with the Titans proving to be a juggernaut in recent weeks. Tennessee has allowed 50 and 52 tackle opportunities, respectively, over the past two weeks; they are trending up as a unit despite a season average of 48.5 tackle opportunities allowed.
The Texans are a viable offense for tackle production as well, averaging 51.8 opportunities allowed per game. This is a high-stakes encounter between two of the AFC’s playoff hopefuls, so expect a hard-fought game that is close on the scoreboard. A neutral game script will suit both teams, as neither will be forced out of their comfort zone from a play-calling perspective. The Titans run the ball on 45.1% of their plays, a strategy they are likely to lean on once again, leading to ample tackle opportunity for Houston’s key defenders. Plug in your Texans and Titans.
Key stat: Tennessee’s defense has allowed 24.5 completions per game, enough for fourth in the league – and an extender of opponent drives.
Tackle Match-ups to Avoid
Arizona defenders vs. Cleveland
Stadium TVO rank: 25th (1.103)
The Cardinals defense has been the NFL equivalent of an oasis in the desert for a plethora of thirsty offenses, but can the Browns break out of their funk and find water? The underlying statistics deliver a resounding no as an answer to that query. Baker Mayfield has averaged just 18.1 completions per game on the road, a far cry from pace-setting Atlanta at 27.7. It should be noted that the Cardinals defense allows 26.6 completions per game, a league-worst mark.
Ultimately, that may not matter one iota, such is the drag that the TVO factor puts on this game. At times the decision of whether to start a player in a playoff situation comes down to trust, and the Browns offense simply hasn’t demonstrated enough consistency to earn that trust. There is a temptation to look too much into the favorable match-up against Arizona and gloss over the Browns’ inadequacies, but that risk isn’t worth taking in this spot.
Key stat: The Browns offense averages just 47.3 tackle opportunities allowed per game, with the league average standing at 50.4.
Kansas City and Denver defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 29th (1.092)
The temperature in Kansas City on Sunday is set to dip below freezing (a balmy 21F is predicted), challenging conditions for the passing game to flourish. A steady dose of the ground game for both teams could yield a decent output for their primary defenders, but the TVO rank (29th) is among the worst in the league and not something we should put our faith in on this important week.
Drew Lock has given the Broncos life, so there is an outside chance he could keep this interesting for a time. The Chiefs’ defensive backfield shouldn’t be overlooked, however, especially considering how they have been putting the clamps on offenses of late. Expect the Chiefs, who are heavily favored at home, to control this game. If you are desperate, it is the Denver side that is more appealing from a tackle production perspective, but the play here is to fade this match-up.
Key stat: Even with Drew Lock taking over at quarterback, the Broncos offense has averaged just 20 completions per game over the last two weeks. For reference, the league leader in average completions is 28.6 (Atlanta).
Best of luck with Week 15 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.