Eliminator Pool: Week 15

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

The staff almost had a perfect week, except the Denver Broncos had other ideas. Denver's upset of Houston cost the staff four losses, raising the group of 17's picks losses to 53 on the season. That means that the average staffer in the pool has three losses, but Sean Settle remains out in front at 13-1 with three weeks to play. Four staffers are tied for second at 12-2, just one game behind. Three tough choices remain and they get exponentially harder to select. December is here, so let's take a look at the Week 15 picks.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week:

DISCUSSION

Week 15 has the look of an interesting week. Roughly half of the games on the schedule feature favorites that Las Vegas is expecting to cover six points or more: Baltimore (-14.5) vs. the Jets on Thursday, Kansas City (-9.5 vs. Denver), New England (-9.5 at Cincinnati), Seattle (-6 at Carolina), Oakland (-6.5 vs. Jacksonville), San Francisco (-10.5 vs. Atlanta) and New Orleans (-7.5 vs. Indianapolis) on Monday. That is seven teams that are reasonable selections this week, but many of these same teams have been used quite a bit in most pools. Just looking at this group of 17 staff for Footballguys, everyone has used the Ravens already, only Alex Miglio has Green Bay left, three staffers have the Patriots available to them, while San Francisco (used 12 times), New Orleans (12), Oakland (12), Seattle (11) and Kansas City (9) have all been utilized more often than not. It takes careful planning to survive 17 weeks, so the picks on Thursday morning will be an interesting breakdown of who has which team and if anyone is looking to go in a different direction to try and catch up in the standings.

Thursday Morning Update: Well, the picks are in for Week 15, and you can certainly tell that it is December. The staff looks to be all over the map with nine different teams selected across 17 picks. That reflects some of the comments above with seven good options this week, as all seven are represented on the list: San Francisco (4), Seattle (3), Kansas City (2), New Orleans (2), New England (1) and Oakland (1). Some of the scatteredness comes from previous usage, and Baltimore failed to make the list because all of the staff has used the Ravens in prior weeks. Three teams joined the list for the staff as two writers (Aaron Rudnicki and Alex Miglio) chose to go with the New York Giants at home against Miami, which feels like a very risky option. Two additional unique picks made the Week 15 as Matt Bitonti chose Cleveland as a road favorite in Arizona, while Jeff Haseley went with Minnesota as a slight road favorite as the Vikings visit the Los Angeles Chargers. With so many teams chosen this week, the standings are sure to shuffle come Tuesday.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor / Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article.

Jeff Pasquino: Before I provide the reasoning for my Week 15 pick, here is a review of the summary I provided last week of the weekly breakdown of which teams are likely to be favored by at least six points (with one exception that I will explain in a moment):

Week 15 (5 games):

• (Thursday) Baltimore (-15) vs. NY Jets (Actual = Baltimore by 14.5 to 15)
• Kansas City (-10) vs. Denver (Actual = Kansas City by 9.5 to 10)
• New England (-11) at Cincinnati (Actual = New England -9.5)
• San Francisco (-11.5) vs. Atlanta (Actual = San Francisco by 10.5 to 11)
• (Monday) New Orleans (-8.5) vs Indianapolis (Actual = New Orleans by 7.5)

Week 16 (3+ games):

• (Saturday) New England (-6) vs. Buffalo
• Baltimore (-7.5) at Cleveland
• *Indianapolis (-5.5) vs. Carolina
• *Denver (-5.5) vs. Detroit
• Seattle (-13.5) vs. Arizona

*Added games with 5.5-point expected favorites

Week 17 (9 games):

• Minnesota (-6.5) vs. Chicago
• Kansas City (-9.5) vs. LA Chargers
• New England (-15) vs. Miami
• New Orleans (-7) at Carolina
• Buffalo (-9) vs. NY Jets
• Philadelphia (-6) at NY Giants
• Baltimore (-11.5) vs. Pittsburgh
• Dallas (-11.5) vs. Washington
• LA Rams (-12) vs. Arizona

See last week's breakdown for commentary on the list above, but let's talk about the teams that are added to the Week 15 list: Oakland (-6.5 to -7) at home against Jacksonville and Seattle (-6) at Carolina. Seattle had been rolling of late with four wins in a row prior to a tough loss to the Los Angeles Rams last week, but they get a road date with a Panthers team that is all but packed for the offseason already. Seattle is a reasonable selection for Week 15, but many have used them already and a road game in the early Sunday slot can be a tough spot, especially for a team that is coming off of four games in a row against NFC playoff contenders. There is the possibility that this is a trap game for the Seahawks, where they could get caught in a letdown and lose a game they clearly should win. Christian McCaffrey can beat them with a few big plays and put Seattle on their collective heels, so be careful if you like Seattle this week.

My pick for Week 15 is all about momentum and intangibles, plus going a bit off the board. I am going with a team not only playing their last home game of the season but for the last time in that city - the Oakland Raiders. The last game in the Black Hole is going to be a scene for sure, and now that we know that Josh Jacobs is going to play, well, sorry Jacksonville - but you get to play the role of the Washington Generals in a virtual homecoming game (or should I say home-leaving? Sorry Oakland). The Raiders are close to playoff elimination, but they have a schedule that contains three winnable games that can help them build momentum for 2020 in Las Vegas, which is about all they could ask for entering this season. Take the Raiders and The Black Hole Effect for the win this week and hope others in your pool go with Seattle, Kansas City (vs. Denver) or San Francisco (vs. Atlanta), which all could be facing trap games in Week 15. Good luck.

The Pick: Oakland Raiders

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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