Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Updated @ 7 PM, Thursday 10/3
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
New England | NY Giants | -16.5 | 43 | 29.75 | ««« | ««« | ««« |
Kansas City | Houston | -4 | 55 | 29.5 | ««« | ««« | |
Baltimore | Cincinnati | -11 | 47.5 | 29.25 | ««« | ««« | « |
LA Rams | San Francisco | -3.5 | 50.5 | 27 | «« | «« | |
Atlanta | Arizona | -2.5 | 51 | 26.75 | «« | «« | |
Dallas | NY Jets | -7 | 44 | 25.5 | « | «« | « |
Houston | Kansas City | 4 | 55 | 25.5 | « | « | |
Green Bay | Detroit | -3.5 | 46.5 | 25 | « | « | |
Carolina | Tampa Bay | -2.5 | 47 | 24.75 | « | « | |
Arizona | Atlanta | 2.5 | 51 | 24.25 | « | « | |
Seattle | Cleveland | -2 | 46 | 24 | « | « | |
Minnesota | Philadelphia | -3.5 | 44 | 23.75 | |||
LA Chargers | Pittsburgh | -6.5 | 40.5 | 23.5 | «« | ||
San Francisco | LA Rams | 3.5 | 50.5 | 23.5 | |||
Jacksonville | New Orleans | -1.5 | 43.5 | 22.5 | |||
Washington | Miami | -3.5 | 41.5 | 22.5 | « | ||
Tampa Bay | Carolina | 2.5 | 47 | 22.25 | |||
Cleveland | Seattle | 2 | 46 | 22 | |||
Detroit | Green Bay | 3.5 | 46.5 | 21.5 | |||
Denver | Tennessee | -2 | 40.5 | 21.25 | « | ||
New Orleans | Jacksonville | 1.5 | 43.5 | 21 | |||
Philadelphia | Minnesota | 3.5 | 44 | 20.25 | |||
Tennessee | Denver | 2 | 40.5 | 19.25 | |||
Miami | Washington | 3.5 | 41.5 | 19 | |||
NY Jets | Dallas | 7 | 44 | 18.5 | |||
Cincinnati | Baltimore | 11 | 47.5 | 18.25 | |||
Pittsburgh | LA Chargers | 6.5 | 40.5 | 17 | |||
NY Giants | New England | 16.5 | 43 | 13.25 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs)
- Running Back: Sony Michel/James White (Patriots), Mark Ingram (Ravens), Damien Williams/LeSean McCoy (Chiefs), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Josh Gordon/Matt LaCosse (Patriots), Marquise Brown/Willie Snead/Mark Andrews (Ravens), Tyreek Hill/Mecole Hardman/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Defense: Patriots
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Jared Goff (Rams), Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman (Falcons), Todd Gurley (Rams)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Cooper Kupp (Rams), Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/Jason Witten (Cowboys)
- Defense: Cowboys, Chargers
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Kyle Allen (Panthers), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), DeShaun Watson (Texans), Kyler Murray (Cardinals), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), Aaron Jones (Packers), Carlos Hyde/Duke Johnson Jr (Texans), David Johnson (Cardinals), Chris Carson (Seahawks), Melvin Gordon/Austin Ekeler (Chargers)
- Receivers: D.J. Moore/Curtis Samuel/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Davante Adams/Marques Valdez-Scantling/Jimmy Graham (Packers), DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller/Keke Coutee (Texans), Larry Fitzgerald/Christian Kirk/KeeSean Johnson (Cardinals), Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/Will Dissly (Seahawks), Keenan Allen/Mike Williams/Travis Benjamin (Chargers)
- Defense: Broncos, Ravens, Redskins