Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
Updated Sunday, November 29th @ 6 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Kansas City | Tampa Bay | -3.5 | 56.5 | 30 | ««« | ««« | |
Buffalo | LA Chargers | -4.5 | 52.5 | 28.5 | «« | «« | |
Las Vegas | Atlanta | -3 | 54 | 28.5 | «« | «« | |
Cleveland | Jacksonville | -7 | 48.5 | 27.75 | « | «« | |
Seattle | Philadelphia | -6 | 48.5 | 27.25 | « | « | |
Indianapolis | Tennessee | -3 | 51.5 | 27.25 | « | « | |
Minnesota | Carolina | -3 | 51 | 27 | « | « | |
Houston | Detroit | -3 | 51 | 27 | « | « | |
Green Bay | Chicago | -9 | 44 | 26.5 | « | «« | « |
Tampa Bay | Kansas City | 3.5 | 56.5 | 26.5 | « | « | |
New Orleans | Denver | -16 | 37 | 26.5 | « | «« | ««« |
Miami | NY Jets | -7 | 44.5 | 25.75 | « | ||
LA Rams | San Francisco | -6.5 | 44.5 | 25.5 | « | ||
Arizona | New England | -2 | 49 | 25.5 | |||
Atlanta | Las Vegas | 3 | 54 | 25.5 | |||
NY Giants | Cincinnati | -6 | 44.5 | 25.25 | « | ||
Pittsburgh | Baltimore | -9 | 41.5 | 25.25 | « | ||
Dallas | Washington | -3 | 46 | 24.5 | |||
Tennessee | Indianapolis | 3 | 51.5 | 24.25 | |||
Detroit | Houston | 3 | 51 | 24 | |||
LA Chargers | Buffalo | 4.5 | 52.5 | 24 | |||
Carolina | Minnesota | 3 | 51 | 24 | |||
New England | Arizona | 2 | 49 | 23.5 | |||
Washington | Dallas | 3 | 46 | 21.5 | |||
Philadelphia | Seattle | 6 | 48.5 | 21.25 | |||
Jacksonville | Cleveland | 7 | 48.5 | 20.75 | |||
Cincinnati | NY Giants | 6 | 44.5 | 19.25 | |||
San Francisco | LA Rams | 6.5 | 44.5 | 19 | |||
NY Jets | Miami | 7 | 44.5 | 18.75 | |||
Chicago | Green Bay | 9 | 44 | 17.5 | |||
Baltimore | Pittsburgh | 9 | 41.5 | 16.25 | |||
Denver | New Orleans | 16 | 37 | 10.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: None
- Running Back: None
- Receivers: None
- Defense: Saints
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Josh Allen (Bills), Derek Carr (Raiders), Baker Mayfield (Browns)
- Running Back: Clyde Edwards-Helaire/LeVeon Bell (Chiefs), Devin Singletary/Zack Moss (Bills), Josh Jacobs (Raiders), Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt (Browns), Aaron Jones (Packers)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Demarcus Robinson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Stefon Diggs/Gabriel Davis/Cole Beasley (Bills), Henry Ruggs/Nelson Agholor/Darren Waller (Raiders), Jarvis Landry/Rashard Higgins/Austin Hooper (Browns)
- Defense: None
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Philip Rivers (Colts), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Deshaun Watson (Texans), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Tom Brady (Buccaneers)
- Running Back: Chris Carson (Seahawks), Jonathan Taylor (Colts), Dalvin Cook (Vikings), Duke Johnson Jr (Texans), Ronald Jones II/Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers)
- Receivers: DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett/Jacob Hollister (Seahawks), T.Y. Hilton/Michael Pittman/Trey Burton (Colts), Justin Jefferson/Chad Beebe (Vikings), Will Fuller/Brandin Cooks/Keke Coutee (Texans), Davante Adams/Allen Lazard/Robert Tonyan Jr (Packers), Chris Godwin/Mike Evans/Antonio Brown/Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers)
- Defense: Steelers, Packers, Dolphins, Giants, Rams