Photo: Aaron Doster, USA Today Sports

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less . Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week. With the Holiday week, we are going to do things just a little bit differently. We are going to give our two favorite Thanksgiving Day props on Thursday morning and then add the top three weekend plays on Friday.

Week 16 Review

• Last Week: +2
• Season Total: +6.6

We had a winning week, hitting one of our three 2.5-touchdown props at 4X and splitting our two 3X opportunities.

Week 16 Picks

5: Thursday Night Boost (-1):

Brandon Aiyuk narrowly hit the over on fantasy points with a touchdown in the game’s final minutes.

4: Brady Bounceback: (+2)

Brady easily outproduced Cam Newton, who was limited to a part-time role as expected. Antonio Brown also outproduced Ronald Jones II with a big 10-catch day in his first game back.

3: Rams-Vikings TDs: (-1)

Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson both had huge receiving days but neither got into the end one, leaving us short of the three touchdowns we needed.

2: Packers-Browns TDs: (+3)

Davante Adams got us most of the way there with his two touchdowns. Nick Chubb also got into the end zone to put us over 2.5 combined scores from our trio.

1: Colts-Cardinals TDs (-1)

James Conner scratched but we will take the loss here. Jonathan Taylor was held out of the end zone.

5: Chiefs-Bengals TDs

MORE than 2.5 combined touchdowns from Joe Mixon, Travis Kelce, and Darrel Williams

• We have been trying to target Mixon touchdown props all season given his regular usage around the goal line and he has rewarded us more times than not. Mixon has scored 16 touchdowns in 15 games.
• Mixon has had multiple touchdown games five times since Week 8 (63% of games). He is coming off of a busy week as a pass catcher in addition to his consistent red zone usage as a runner.

Joe Mixon caught all 7 of his targets vs the Ravens on Sunday (1 called back by penalty).

He has now caught 36 of 37 catchable passes this season and is avg. 7.8 YAC/Reception. This is how you want to see a RB utilized on a more lucrative deal. pic.twitter.com/2KjZYSz8L3

— Andrew Russell (@PFF_AndrewR) December 30, 2021

• After a few down weeks, Kelce had a breakout game in Week 15 against the Chargers (10 catches for 191 yards and 2 touchdowns). He is rounding into form heading into the playoffs and has an elite matchup.

Andy Reid confirms all #Chiefs — including Travis Kelce — have passed through COVID-19 protocol; @pgsween with more on why No. 87 is a player to watch: https://t.co/EMLuRxJcR0

— Arrowhead Pride (@ArrowheadPride) December 29, 2021

• The Bengals top three linebackers, including top coverage man Germaine Pratt, are injured. While Logan Wilson may potentially return from a multiple-week absence, the Bengals are still undermanned and fresh off of allowing 8-125-1 last week.
• In five starts, Darrel Williams is averaging 13.8 carries, 5.4 targets, 94 total yards, and 0.6 touchdowns per game.

4: Rams-Ravens TDs

MORE than 2.5 combined touchdowns between Cooper Kupp, Sony Michel, and Mark Andrews

• The Ravens defense is a mess right now, especially in the secondary. Baltimore is fresh off of allowing Joe Burrow to throw for 525 yards, the fourth-most in NFL history. Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey are out for the season. Anthony Averett is questionable with a rib injury. Jimmy Smith may return from the COVID-19 list but this unit is still extremely thin and facing another top passing attack.
• Kupp has scored at least one touchdown in 60% of the Rams game this season and two touchdowns in 33% of his games. He has the highest touchdown projection of any wide receiver on this slate according to the Footballguys consensus projections (0.86).
• Sony Michel has been a nearly every-down back since taking over the lead role in Week 13. He has played at least 90% of the snaps in three-of-four games.
• While Michel has only had two touchdowns since he earned the starting role, he is getting plenty of scoring opportunities. He has 14 carries inside of the ten yard line the last four games.

Does Cam Akers’ activation have you worried about Sony Michel? @JeffRatcliffe wants to assure you, Michel is a top 15 running back play this week. pic.twitter.com/LmKSYMGgVV

— Fantasy Sports Radio (@SiriusXMFantasy) December 29, 2021

• Andrews has been absolutely on fire in recent weeks with three straight games of 115-plus receiving yards and at least one touchdown.

Past 3 games, with 3 different QBs..

Mark Andrews has AT LEAST

8 receptions
115 receiving yards
1 TD

Andrews the overall TE1, first time since 2015 it hasn't been Kelce

Also, I'd stick with Hollywood Brown this week

Stats below for Hollywood ⬇️⬇️ pic.twitter.com/qex9hBL918

— Josh Larky ↗️ (@jlarkytweets) December 29, 2021

• Andrews has nine touchdowns in his last 11 games.

3: Defensive Battle in Dallas

Dak Prescott LESS than 290.5 passing yards
Kyler Murray LESS than 265.5 passing yards

• This is a correlation play on the expectation that the Cardinals-Cowboys matchup is dominated by the defenses.

The #DallasCowboys defense is one of a kind, literally. #NFL pic.twitter.com/Xo1au0DU47

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) December 29, 2021

• We are getting value on both of these lines according to the Footballguys consensus projection. Dak Prescott is projected for 284 passing yards (6.5 yards of value) and Kyler Murray is projected for 255 passing yards (10.5 yards of value).
• Murray has thrown for more than 265.5 passing yards just twice since Week 5 and the offense has yet to find its footing without DeAndre Hopkins on the field.
• Prior to last week’s big game, Prescott had gone three straight weeks with under 240 passing yards. The matchup is difficult, with the Cardinals allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards in the league.

2: MNF Stars

Nick Chubb MORE than 14.5 fantasy points
Diontae Johnson MORE than 15.5 fantasy points

• The Footballguys consensus projection for Nick Chubb is 18.6 fantasy points, so we are getting more than 4.1 points of value on the over.

Since the Halloween game, the Steelers have given up 174 rushing yards per game. Gave up 200 yards rushing 3 times this year, two of which happened in the past 3 weeks. Its Nick Chubb time #Browns pic.twitter.com/CqFht2CLTF

— Mac (@tha_buffalo) December 28, 2021

• Diontae Johnson is projected for 16.7 fantasy points, so we are also getting some value on that side of the equation.
• Chubb is coming off of a monster game in which he racked up 184 total yards. Fans are calling for him to be featured even more.
• This is an ideal matchup for Chubb to stay hot. Over the last seven games, the Steelers are allowing 180.4 rushing yards per game.
• Diontae Johnson has scored at least 14 fantasy points in 13-of-15 games this season.

Diontae Johnson: Steelers ‘Gonna Go Out With A Bang’ With This Is It For Big Ben Or Not https://t.co/aQ7Br8P4zi #Steelers pic.twitter.com/yBT5YEkgPV

— Steelers Depot 🎅🎄🎁 (@Steelersdepot) December 29, 2021

1: Vikings-Packers TDs

MORE than 2.5 combined touchdowns from Davante Adams, Dalvin Cook, and Aaron Jones

• This is the top proposition of the week, with nearly a 50% chance of hitting at 4X odds according to a model of recent games fitting this profile.
• The recent history in this division rivalry for each player is eye-opening.
• Dalvin Cook has seven touchdowns in the last three games versus the Packers.

The Vikings could surprise on Sunday and here’s why.. bitterly cold weather favors Minnesota’s run game and with the return of Dalvin Cook who had 4 TDs in 2020 the Vikings are a dangerous team on offense #Skol pic.twitter.com/W9oYydooHQ

— Rick Sosa (@sosarick) December 30, 2021

• Aaron Jones has four touchdowns in his last three games versus the Vikings.
• Davante Adams has seven touchdowns in his last three games against the Vikings.
• The three combined have averaged 6.0 touchdowns per game in their last three starts in this rivalry.
• Adams has scored multiple touchdowns in three of his last five games overall.
• The entire Vikings offense has been running through Cook when he has been available. He has averaged 27.5 carries and 3.0 targets per game in his last two starts.