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Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week. With the Holiday week, we are going to do things just a little bit differently. We are going to give our two favorite Thanksgiving Day props on Thursday morning and then add the top three weekend plays on Friday.
Week 19 Review
- Last Week: -1.4
- Season Total: +6.2
- Week 19 Picks
5: Bengals-Raiders TDs (-1):
This one did not turn into the shootout we hoped for due to poor red-zone offense. The two teams combined to kick eight field goals.
4: Betting on Brady: (-1)
We only hit half of this one. Jalen Hurts hit his over on passing yards by almost 50 but Brady came up 28 yards shy of hitting the over.
3: Cardinals-Rams TDs: (-1)
2: Cowboys-49ers TDs: (-1)
We came close with two of our three picks (Deebo Samuel and Eli Mitchell) scoring touchdowns but needed one more to hit the 4X.
1: Hot Hands in NE-BUF (+2.6)
5: Superstars in TEN
JaMarr Chase MORE than 18.5 fantasy points
A.J. Brown MORE than 16.5 fantasy points
- We get a boost here with a chance to 3.6X our entry fee instead of the normal 3X.
- This is a strong correlation play based on a potential game script in which the Bengals are able to move the ball and put up points and force Tennessee into a more aggressive game script.
- In big games, the stars tend to get a few extra looks. Teams call their best plays for the best players and live or die with their ability to go make a play. For these teams, Chase and Brown are the go-to stars (if Derrick Henry is not fully healthy).
Todd Downing says he tries to get playmakers like A.J. Brown and Julio Jones the ball and involved early. Wants to make sure they once there are plays in the plan for them. #Titans pic.twitter.com/pYynEuIvZy— TURRON DAVENPORT (@TDavenport_NFL) January 19, 2022
- While it is still early in their careers, neither Brown nor Chase has had a playoff appearance without seeing at least 10 targets.
- In the last three games Chase had played with Burrow, he has 27 catches for 507 yards and three touchdowns. That is an average of 31.9 fantasy points per game.
- The Titans' lone defensive weakness has been against outside receivers. Tennessee has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
4: SF-GB Touchdowns
- In five career games (playoffs included) against the 49ers, Davante Adams has averaged 9.6 receptions per game for 123.6 receiving yards and 1.0 touchdowns per game.
- When these two teams matched up in Week 3, Adams was targeted 18 times and ended with a 12-132-1 receiving line, while Aaron Jones had 96 yards and a touchdown.
- Adams has been a target hog in the playoffs, seeing 10-plus targets in each of the Packers' four postseason games in recent years. In those four games, he averaged 8.8 receptions and 1.0 touchdowns per game. Plus, the 49ers are not a defense that goes out of its way to take away the opponent's top weapon.
Davante Adams has killed the 49ers because not only does Matt LaFleur scheme up stuff for him but Rodgers will do exactly what Troy is asking here: oh the CB is 8 yards off? One step smoke throw and let Davante work. https://t.co/ZYCk85TKpx— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) January 19, 2022
- Prior to Week 10, Deebo Samuel only had six carries the entire season. Since Week 10, he has averaged 7.0 carries per game.
- Once his rushing role changed drastically in Week 10, Samuel has been an unstoppable force. He has scored in 8-of-9 games and scored multiple touchdowns twice, averaging 1.1 touchdowns per game.
- Since Week 10, Samuel has put up rushing touchdown numbers that rival the league’s top running backs, with eight rushing touchdowns in his last nine games.
3: No shootout in Tampa?
- With these two top quarterbacks looking to keep pace with each other, this is a strong correlation play. Both are more likely to go over or under together than for only one to hit their over.
- When these two teams played in Week 3, both quarterbacks put up huge numbers. Stafford threw for 343 while Brady passed for 432. This one may play out differently, however. Neither of these teams is quite as reliant on the passing game as they were early in the season.
- The Buccaneers have won their last four playoff games without Brady throwing for more than 280 passing yards. His volume has been down, also. He did not attempt more than 37 passes in any of those wins.
- Coming into a matchup against Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and the Rams deep cast of top pass rushers, it is not a good time to have a banged-up offensive line. Yet that is exactly the situation the Buccaneers find themselves in, with two of their best linemen coming into this game with legitimate questionable tags.
- The Rams may also be short-handed along the offensive line with starting left tackle Andrew Whitworth potentially sidelined.
- The Rams have also been much more run-heavy of late. In their last six games, Los Angeles has averaged just 30 pass attempts per game. Prior to Week 14, the Rams were averaging 36.5 passes per game.
- Since the switch to a more run-heavy approach, Stafford is only averaging 246 passing yards per game.
- While the early lead certainly played a factor in how the game played out, it is still noteworthy how much the Rams relied on their defense and running game to beat the Cardinals. With Stafford turning the ball over at an extremely high rate, we should expect to continue to see conservative game plans moving forward.
Matthew Stafford had never thrown only 17 passes in a game that he didn't leave early due to injury. He threw only 17 on Monday night. Stafford and coach Sean McVay attribute the limited throws to the "flow of the game." https://t.co/PgXpFejbRm— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) January 20, 2022
2: Shootout in KC
- We are getting a strong correlation play here and this one just seems destined to be a shootout between two of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes II put up a ridiculous 138.3 passer rating in the first round of the playoffs but even that paled in comparison to the 157.6 passer rating of Josh Allen.
"This matchup is historic. First ever playoff game in NFL history to feature two quarterbacks who threw for five touchdowns in their previous postseason game."— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) January 19, 2022
—@AdamSchein on the Patrick Mahomes II-Josh Allen matchup on Sunday (@Chiefs vs. @BuffaloBills on @CBSSports) pic.twitter.com/XgsVMoWxcH
- The most eye-opening performance of the Wild Card round was the display of offensive excellence we saw from the Bills offense. Buffalo absolutely obliterated one of the best defenses in the league, scoring touchdowns on seven straight possessions to open the game against the Patriots.
- Allen was flawless, throwing for 308 yards and 5 touchdowns on just 25 attempts. His adjusted yards per attempt was an absurd 16.3, which eclipsed his season-high of 14.4 in Week 5
- The huge Week 5 game with the 14.4 adjusted yards per attempt came in Kansas City. Allen threw for 315 yards on just 26 passing attempts in a convincing win over the Chiefs.
- While the Kansas City defense is an underrated unit, they have struggled at times against top quarterbacks who have wide receivers with the ability to dominate against single coverage. We saw this just a few weeks when Joe Burrow threw for 446 yards and JaMarr Chase had a career day. As we will explore more below, Stefon Diggs is also a nightmare against man coverage and gives the Bills offense a trump card against the Chiefs defensive scheme.
- Patrick Mahomes II is a force of nature in the playoffs. He sliced and diced a good Steelers pass defense for 404 yards and 5 touchdowns last week.
- These two teams met in the AFC Championship game last season and Mahomes passed for 325 yards and 3 touchdowns to lead the Chiefs to the Super Bowl.
1: BUF-KC Touchdowns
- Travis Kelce has faced the Chiefs three times in the last two seasons and scored a total of five touchdowns in those three games.
- His biggest game against the Bills came at home in the playoffs almost exactly one year ago, when he caught 13 passes for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns.
- We were on Devin Singletary’s fantasy points over (12.5 points) as our favorite prop of the week in the Wild Card round and he came through in a major way. We will run it back with Singletary again this week given how much his role has changed in the Bills offense.
- As noted last week, Singletary never played more than 75% of the snaps in any game through the first 13 weeks of the season and only played over half the snaps four times.
- He has played over 75% of the snaps in five of the last six weeks, including an 86% snap share in last week’s blowout win over the Patriots.
- Singletary has at least 17 touches in each of his last five games and has scored eight touchdowns over that stretch.
- Singletary has three straight games with multiple touchdowns.
- Stefon Diggs has scored seven touchdowns in his last 10 games and is likely to see much more single coverage this week than he normally does.