Thursday Showdown Week 5

Photo: Mark J. Rebilas, USA Today Sports

Disclaimer

These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options and in MME contests there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.

Game Strategy

This entire slate hingest on the health of Chris Carson who is questionable with a neck injury. This article is assuming that Carson is out this week. To be honest here, it doesn’t look like he is going to be able to play, which immediately creates value for the Seahawks backfield. The matchup for the Seahawks is a fantastic one on the ground as the Chargers are allowing 140 yards rushing per game which is the fourth most in the NFL.

If Carson is out, the big question is what to do with Alex Collins. At just $3,200, he is going to be the highest rostered player we’ve had quite possibly all season in these prime time showdown slates. He is by far the best value player on this board, and should be included in your lineups. The big question is whether he should be considered for the captain spot this week. While he will likely be the highest rostered player in that position as well, this is a spot where you might want to be a little bit more careful.

Alex Collins will be a popular captain, because he allows you to build out a complete lineup with whoever you want. If you’re playing in a small field tournament, or even a cash game which is not advisable, Collins is the guy that you want to play. However, in a large field GPP tournament, he’s not going to be optimal, as even if he wins you the tournament, you will likely have the same build as a significant part of the field thus greatly reducing your first place prize. Taking a wide receiver in this game seems to be the way to go, someone like DK Metcalf or even a quarterback on this one seems like it could provide you some differentiation.

Captain Consideration:

1. Alex Collins
2. Van Jefferson
3. Matthew Stafford
4. Tyler Lockett
5. Cooper Kupp
6. DK Metcalf
7. Darrell Henderson
8. Russell Wilson
9. DeSean Jackson (very high risk)

Rams Overview

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford- Captain or Flex

Stafford has been on fire to start his tenure in Los Angeles. Through his first four games, Stafford is averaging 303 yards per game with 2.8 touchdowns per game. The amount of weapons that the Rams have around him with the speedsters in Van Jefferson and DeSean Jackson to complement Robert Woods and the emerging superstar in Cooper Kupp. This is a dangerous offense with creative playcalling that leads to a highly efficient offense. He’s not going to be extremely popular as a Captain in this one, so it could provide some differentiation as he’s able to spread the ball around to so many different targets within this offense.

Running Back- Darrell Henderson- Strong Flex, Lower-End Play Captain

There is a lot to like about Darrell Henderson in this game. First, the Seahawks have allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL so far this season, albeit with a very difficult schedule facing Minnesota, San Francisco, Tennessee, and Indianapolis. Henderson to date has held off Sony Michel through strong play as he’s averaging 4.9 yards-per-carry, and has eight receptions over the last two games which is not something that can be relied upon from him, but a nice addition to his fantasy value. The biggest concern is the floor on Henderson is quite low, as he is only going to see somewhere in the neighborhood of 13-15 carries and if the game script doesn’t align he may not see significant volume in the passing game. He’s a fantastic flex play, but as a captain could be difficult to get to value.

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp- Strong Captain, mediocre flex play

The issue for Kupp is what player are we getting at this absorbenent price. Through the first three weeks of the season, Kupp was the top overall scorer inclusive of quarterbacks in fantasy football as he averaged 32.4 DraftKings points. Last week, he took a step back as he only had 5 receptions for 64 yards, but had more targets in that game than any game this season. It looks like he might get somewhat popular as a captain this week, and he is likely a better captain play than a flex play due to the overall upside that he can completely break the slate.

Robert Woods- Low-end flex play

The problem with Woods is whether he is going to revert back to his prior form, or if this is who the veteran wide receiver is now, which is a guy who is averaging 3.8 receptions, 43 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. His numbers should go up a little bit throughout the year based off of talent alone, but the problem is that he is averaging just 6 targets per game which is well off his pace over the last several seasons. Based on his price of $7,600 if he fits into your lineup as one of the last players into your lineup than he is a fine flex play, but should not be someone that you’re building around.

Other Targets-

Van Jefferson- Strong Captain/Flex play due to upside and price. Trending in right direction with six receptions in each of last two games.
DeSean Jackson- Contrarian Captain play, don’t go crazy with it, but one long catch could pay off significantly
Tyler Higbee- Low-end flex play. Not enough touchdown equity based on history to play the tight end in this spot.
Rams Defense- Flex play

Seahawks Overview

Quarterback

Russell Wilson- Great Flex, lower-end Captain

Russell Wilson is always a great play in Showdown formats as the upside and floor that he brings to the table as a top quarterback is intriguing. The problem with Wilson, often is that he has such a high volume of targets to a small group of players that it is difficult to pay off as a captain as typically one of DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett are very close if not outscoring Wilson at a much lower price. As a stacking piece, he’s a great play, but putting Metcalf and Lockett into your captain spot is likely a much better proposition as with Wilson you’re hoping that he runs in a touchdown which would be a significant differentiator as a captain.

Running Back

Alex Collins- Great Captain/Flex

We’ve already talked about Alex Collins earlier, but he’s a great captain/flex play. He will be extremely popular.

Wide Receiver

DK Metcalf- Better Flex than Captain, but viable at both.

DK Metcalf is turning into the more consistent receiver in Seattle which is something we would not have been able to say earlier in his career. Metcalf has scored in three of the four games this season, and while there is always some volatility for a receiver who only averages five receptions per game, he is such a focal point of this offense evidenced by his 33 targets thus far this season. The only question is whether Metcalf has enough consistent upside to justify as a captain compared to the roster percentage that he will be this week. At the captain position, Metcalf has topped 100 yards just twice in his last 13 games. He’s likely a better flex than a captain.

Tyler Lockett- Good Captain, fade at Flex

Playing Tyler Lockett this season has been a roller coaster. Through his first four games, he has 29, 35, 7, and 6 DraftKings points. While his career is not that volatile, he has had many streaks of up and down play which can drive fantasy managers crazy. He’s likely a better Captain play due to having as high of upside as Cooper Kupp at $4,200 less, but as a flex play, it is harder because he can destroy an otherwise good lineup with a sub-par performance.

Other Targets-

Travis Homer- Good flex value play. Should see work as a receiving back this week.
Freddy Swain- Low-end flex value play. Has shown high upside with 5 receptions for 95 yards earlier this year. Snap count has been volatile as above 75% in two games, below 50% in two games.
Colby Parkinson- Low-end flex value play. If Gerald Everett is out this week, Colby Parkinson was on the field for 65% of snaps last week in his first game of the season. At $300, if you need a bottom of the barrell guy, Parkinson could be it if he could somehow find the end-zone or even just pull in a couple of catches.