Thursday Showdown Week 9

Photo: Douglas DeFelice, USA Today Sports

Disclaimer

These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options and in MME contests there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.

Game Strategy

The question you need to ask yourself heading into this week is what Jets team you believe in here and take a stand against it. Mike White is coming off of a performance against the Bengals in which he just dominated throwing for 405 yards and completing 82% of his passes. White didn’t look terrible against the Patriots two weeks ago throwing for 202 yards in three quarters. He has thrown four interceptions in those two games, which is a concern.

The sportsbooks do not believe in this Jets team as the Colts are 10.5 point favorites in this matchup. This will cause the field to go heavy with the Colts as the Jets are projected to score just 17.5 points in this game. Expect a heavy dosage of Colts in this one with Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, and Carson Wentz as the most popular captains this week.

Key Injuries:

Out
Zach Wilson
TY Hilton
Corey Davis
Tevin Coleman

Captain Consideration:

1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Michael Pittman
3. Michael Carter
4. Mike White
5. Carson Wentz
6. Keelan Cole
7. Colts Defense
8. Ty Johnson

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback

Carson Wentz- Flex

Carson Wentz has turned into a game manager in Indianapolis this season. Over the last three weeks, Wentz has thrown for just 201 yards per game in two fairly easy matchups against Houston and Tennessee. The touchdowns have been there as he threw 7 touchdowns over those three games, but to only throw for 201 yards per game in games that the Colts scored 30+ in each of them is not enough upside to win a tournament this week. He’s a great pairing with a wide receiver, but unless he runs for a touchdown which he has done once this season, he is likely not going to be the winning captain this week.

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor- Great Captain/Flex

Jonathan Taylor has been absolutely dominant the last five weeks which led him to winning Offensive Player of the Month in October. Taylor has topped 20 DraftKings points in every game since Week 4, and has topped 30 in two of his last four games. The matchup could not be any better for Taylor this week as he is facing a Jets rushing defense that is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season led by the staggering 1.6 rushing touchdowns and 79 receiving yards per game.

Wide Receiver

Michael Pittman Jr Great Flex/Captain Play

Michael Pittman is quickly developing into a consistent wide receiver in Indianapolis. Last week, Pittman had 10 catches for 86 yards and 2 touchdowns which he has now scored a touchdown in three of his last four games. In terms of upside few players have a ceiling as high as Pittman as evidenced by his 15 targets last week which was the third game this season in which Pittman has 12 or more targets. With no T.Y. Hilton this week, expect Pittman to once again see a heavy dosage of targets.

Ashton Dulin- Punt Flex Play

If you’re looking for a punt play this week, Ashton Dulin is likely the player you are going to want to turn to. While Dulin has not had a breakout performance yet this season, he does have eight targets over his last two games. Dulin was on the field for 63% of the plays two weeks ago with T.Y. Hilton out of the lineup and 36% last week which should increase due to Hilton being on the field for 45% of the snaps. He will be the number three wide receiver in this game and if he can manage a couple of catches, he will be worth the roster spot.

Other Targets

Zach Pascal- Flex There’s not a lot to get excited about Zach Pascal as he has not topped 50 yards this season. With T.Y. Hilton out, Pascal will get targets here, but he’s not overly exciting and you’re likely going to need for him to find the end zone for him to produce which is something he has not done since Week 2.

Colts Defense- Flex As fun as the Mike White experience has been, he has thrown four interceptions over the last two games which should open up opportunities for the Colts in this game. As 10 point favorites, this is a spot where they could pay off taking a defense against a turnover prone quarterback.

New York Jets

Quarterback

Mike White- Great Flex/ Good Captain

Mike White has been invigorating for the Jets, giving them some hope that could make their decision difficult when Zach Wilson returns as soon as next week. White was outstanding last week completing 82% of his passes throwing for 405 yards/3 touchdowns and even catching a touchdown on a pass from running back Ty Johnson. White is going to have to throw the ball a lot this week as he did last week where he threw 45 times, and with that comes upside that should help his case to be startable this week. The rushing matchup is difficult (see Michael Carter below), so expect the Jets to rely on White’s arm to stay competitive in this game.

Running Back

Michael Carter- Great Captain/Flex

If the Jets are going to win this game, it is going to be through Michael Carter this week. Carter has been outstanding as he has been the best fantasy running back over the last two weeks as he’s been the Jets best receiver over the last two weeks. Over the last two weeks with Mike White as quarterback, Carter has caught 17 passes, for 162 yards on 23 targets. The matchup is difficult as the Colts have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, but this is propped up by a fairly weak schedule (Miami, Houston, Baltimore game script had them abandon the running backs utilizing Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry with injured foot)

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Jamison Crowder- Jets Stack Flex

Jamison Crowder is typically not going to excite anyone as he’s a possession slot receiver who is averaging 5.8 receptions for 50 yards in his first four games, but this goes back to the game strategy of whether you believe in the Jets offense or not. If you believe that the Jets can even put up a decent offensive showing, then taking a stack of Crowder, White, and Carter is likely the play as the Jets target volume is fairly narrow with those three and then Ty Johnson. The only problem with Crowder here is the price, as it is difficult to fit him and Michael Carter in the same lineup if you want some of the top-end Colts, so Crowder is likely a Jets stack only this week.

Keelan Cole- Flex

If you aren’t comfortable going with Ashton Dulin as your cheap option, Keelan Cole could be a nice salary relief play this week. At just $2,400, Cole does have a catch in every game he has played this season and provides a deep threat ability (averaging 17.4 yards per catch), that could provide a nice high upside player for the price. Cole was on the field for a season-high 65% of the snaps last week with Corey Davis being out.

Other Targets-

Denzel Mims- Flex

Mims’ role this year has been highly inconsistent, but he did see 70% of snaps last week. If he can replicate this again, at just $2,000, he’s a talented enough receiver who could pay dividends.

Ty Johnson- Low-End Captain/Flex

Ty Johnson has had two back-to-back great performances as he has caught 11 passes over the last two games for 136 yards and a touchdown. The problem with Johnson is that as good as he has been, Michael Carter has been better, so from a captain perspective, taking Carter is probably the better move, while you could stack both of them and hope they continue this torrid pace of 15 catches per week.